doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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HF- the visible confirms the Western GOM system is coming together, and you are so right that the further development and track even of Eduard is being influenced byt the outflow jet from that system...the convective burst in Eduard this morning has already been blown about 75 miles south of the center...no real convection hanging around now cemter still moving a little south of west slowly.
The GOM system may be showing drift to north? if tit moves inland before Eddie , the little eddie may still have a chance to grow , but so far the system to the west is inhibiting further development.
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doug
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Can anyone estimate the direction that edourd might take with a new system in the Northern Gulf? would pull Ed north or push him south?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Eddie:
Latest recon (04/1403Z, 9AM ET?) shows maximum flight level winds of 45kts. This would be up from previous recon and about 10mph more than the official 40mph. Still getting hammered, but holding his own. If he can get into the Gulf he could be impressive.
NW GOM: Looking better and better. Can't wait to see the recon.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Wow. Deja Vu. Looks like yesterday all over again. Shear taking over and ripping convection away. Here we go again.
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Jim
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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HF,
The wave SW of 95L certainly looks interesting in the 1600z sat pic...even more interesting than 95L itself. Has gained convection during the morning. With better conditions down there, is it possible to have the next one shortly?
cc
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 041738
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2002
...EDOUARD CONTINUES WESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TITUSVILLE FLORIDA
TO BRUNSWICK GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TITUSVILLE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST.
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.
THE FORWARD MOTION OF EDOUARD HAS BEEN ERRATIC. OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IT HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH. A WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...MAINLY
EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF EDOUARD.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS NEAR THE COASTLINE.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...29.8 N... 80.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT
5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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You can clearly see the "W" motion in the visibles at NOAA. However, I didn't even post it an hour ago when I saw the loop because, well, I was chicken that it was going to go somewhere else.
LOL.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Where Ya At Greg B. ???? Sean??? Steve???? What is you guys opinion? On the Gulf
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Just came home on my lunch break and...WOW! I've been trying to catch up on the reading and to be honest, I don't like what is setting up here. Remember, I said I just wanted a small storm for a little excitement. Everything I have been able to read says that this thing could sit out there for several days. The only positive about that is that the longer it sits out there the less more likely that it will be pushed away from my area. The down side to that is someone would have to feel the effects of it. This COULD be setting up for a pretty serious situation. However, I will wait a bit longer to go out and buy supplies because we all know how these things can just fall apart.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home
This is for the WGOM system that is slowly organizing amd all residents of the gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this developing system.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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nrl has an invest on the gulf system. it is initialized as a 25kt/1012mb system at 27.5/94. of course this it is clearly very broad and will probably be one of those multiple-center systems as it organizes due to the broad envelope and the spread of clustered convection. but yeah, be interesting what recon can find. probably a slow mover.
edouard is going ashore later today if it keeps the westerly jog up. the convection hasnt peeled away like yesterday during the day.. and the less vicious shear is ahead on edouard's path. so i can see it getting into the gulf late in the week. to complicate things the center is tracking due west, which if continued would keep it over land longer and emerge it in apalachee bay, only to skim the panhandle (expect more erratic motion). how well edouard survives the crossing of florida is another issue. and then whatever is developing further west adds another layer to the problem. one interesting possibility: two active named systems in the gulf. though edouard will probably not arrive at tropical storm strength.
cc you mentioned the system the 95L is passing to the north of. i dont think it looks as good in terms of the strength of its circulation, though, if the passage of 95L doesnt disrupt it will be in a better place to cause trouble. 95L itself is going to hit pass under the ridge upstream of dolly's demise and intensify to a named system, then start getting ripped at by whatever is left of the trough. considering how strong the westerlies are across most of the basin i wouldnt expect much of 95L in terms of threat. should it play chicken with the shear jet though, i wouldnt totally discount it.
heads up flagler county, here comes edouard. in other words, enjoy the rain squalls.
fay and gustav probably around the corner. maybe even hanna.
HF 1851z04september
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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My take for what it's worth...
If Edouard continues on its present motion, and survives the trip across Florida, then I think that system will pose a greater threat to the North Central Gulf area.... This has been an amazingly persistent system and has overcome some significant obstacles just to stay alive (dry air/shear).... IF it gets into the GOM as a depression, then my money is on Eddie.... the only negative thing about this scenario is that its what the predicted several days ago... and I would hate to start thinking that these models can actually be right once in a while... althought is has been off on the intensity and timing...
Now the GOM.... very impressive convection all afternoon but data buoy not suggesting anything eminent... only one buoy reading winds greater than 20K and pressures not nearly as low today as yesterday... I guess it all depends on where and if a definable center developes... closer to the TX shoreline the less chance for any thing major to develop... center develops a couple hundred miles out in the NE GOM, then it has a better chance to crank... Regardless, it should be quite a rain maker for SE TX and LA... little if any impact on MS/AL/FL at the moment... I still am having a hard time trying to pinpoint a center, best I can tell is that is off the TX coast in the western GOM, but I don't have a lot of confidence on that location...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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96L is born in the minds of naval personnel. No idea what it's gonna do. Maybe play tug of war with Edouard for energy? I don't know. New run of less menacing all the way around. 00Z release of more concern for TX as the 'circles' actually turn to light blue toward the end of the period - remaining off the S TX Coast the entire time.
Steve
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The GOM low has indeed been repressing Eduard all week so far, but the outflow seems to have lessened and/or shifted to the west a bit...that should bode for strengthening of Edouard, BUT it is now only a few miles east of the upper Volusia county coast line and is definitely going to make a land fall today there...it seems to be moving more rapidly than 3mph, and as many of these systems do may scoot quickly across the peninsula, I see some indications that a feeder band is beginning to form showers in the SE GOM with the line going across the Lee county area and up to the storm itself...check the NWS-Melbourne longrange loop...IF the NW GOM system weakens or moves ashore, then Eduard may become more formidable on the GOM side of Florida in the next couple of days...
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doug
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The westernmost tropical wave has lost definition east of the Texas coast. Surface observations from ship and buoy reports show a weak low pressure area located about 27 north and 96 west. This low pressure area has been in place for the past couple of days with no big pressure falls just yet, but is being watched very carefully. It should stay over water for the next 24 hours. That will give it plenty of time to spin up into a more organized feature and become a tropical system. Steering currents over the system are very weak, so any feature that tries to evolve out of this broad area of low pressure will be a very slow mover, similar to Edouard.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Bouy south of galveston has 25 knots sutain gust to 29.1 knots last hour
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Convection bursting to sse of center of E, moving in closer to the center--thank God we've got 40kts of shear!
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Less strengthening, but a return to a SE LA landfall tradjectory. The initialization of that model is now 7 hours old and had the storm much further NE than what it is now. I'd love to see some current model initializations.
Steve
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Edouard may only have winds of about 35 knots, but from the looks of the latest IR, WV, and visible satellite loops, it looks as if Central Florida is going to get pounded by torential rains and wind gusts to 50 mph or so. Not only on the coast but also inland. Edouard should move across the state at 10-12 mph. That may be quicker than the 3-5 he was orginally doing but 10-12 isn't race car quick. That pretty slow in fact and because of this the flood threat is probably very high for the St. Johns River and moderate to high in other locations. A couple of isolated tornadoes and waterspouts possible tonight. It doesn't always take a major hurricane or a hurricane at all to produce dangerous conditions...and I believe tonight will prove that here in East Central Florida.
Conditions in southwest Seminole County, Florida:
Cloudy
On and off light rain
Winds gusting to 15 mph occasionally
Strong convective activity (squalls) approaching from east
I'll update you next whenever I can (should be pretty soon). I guess I'll see how bad or good it is tonight.
Kevin
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41009
Tells us that the winds are up, and the pressure is falling fast! -.09 and falling
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