Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yeah, that is what I see Doug but not expert enough to know if that is a LLC.
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Where is everyone? I do believe the system is coming back and looks much better than it did very early this morning. With moisture feeding back into the gulf we may have something here.
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Doug
Unregistered
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everybody is on holiday....
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I'm having a hard time finding any LLC on my loops this morning, if one exists, its awful weak, or very broad at best, or I just don't have access to a good loop to look at to be able to find it.
The convection is trying to regenerate but is still getting its thunderstorm tops sheared off in the process... This is very evident on the IR loop right now...
Its just a big disorganized mess right now .. guess we'll have to monitor to see if conditions improve over time for development
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sweetp
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2
Loc: Alabama
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You said it all in a nice, neat little nutshell Steve :-)
Edited by sweetp (Fri May 24 2002 10:21 AM)
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Doug
Unregistered
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The visible sat is now showing enough images to suggest a broad circulation near 17.0/83.5...not much convection with it. This must be what the is watching as I don't see anything else...EDS.
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Yeah, I can't tell though. One minute it looks like it has something going for it and the next it doesn't look like anything. I guess just a little too early to really be expecting anything to develop.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey HankFrank - looking forward to spending another season wtih ya'. But hey, seems like most of the feedback has been pretty positive - no flack. Even our biggest first-hand expert - Frank P, didn't come down on me. I'm probably as surprised as you that no one has berated me for what I posted. But then again, if must of us weren't enthusiasts, we wouldn't be drawn to and participating on this site anyway.
This weekend should prove to be pretty interesting. I haven't had time to check last night's model runs or the new sat loops, but I'm thinking the system is going to form a little SSW of the southern tip of Florida which could well mean that the peninsula is going to get some much needed rainfall in the Sunday-Tuesday period depending on how things progress. I'll be back with more later.
Btw, thanks sweetp. I didn't mean to speak for anyone else, but I see we're kindred spirits.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Doug
Unregistered
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The special disturbance statement of 10:30 today confirms that the is looking between the Caymans and Honduras, about where I said the visible was showing something...they also said not much there. Apparently it is not "tropical" because of the lack of convection, otherwise I don't see why this is not a tropical low...anybody else aware of why the is making such a distinction on this? EDS.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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000
WONT41 KNHC241415
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
1030 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2002
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS UNANIMOUSLY BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ACCOMPAINED BY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS NOT DEVELOPED...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION HAS BEEN POSTPONED. ANOTHER PLANE IS READY TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARRIBBEAN SEA...THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.
FORECASTER AVILA
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Still looks like it is trying to et better organized. Anybody know exactly how strong the shear is?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Try some of these links:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shrZ.GIF
Hope these help.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Mark
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Loc: Cape Coral, Fl.
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Well action early how nice. I agree with a new center at 84.5 17.5. Visible satelite shows a defined circulation but I am not sure its at the surface. Wind shear is definitly there with winds of 30-40 knots recorded in the area so until this weakens there will be no development. Now models are picking up something up in the NW Carribean but I see most of the models rushing the development and moving it too fast. So since the models are all picking up this feature it does concern me but I have to go with more of a northward direction towards the Florida Keys. I do not think this weekend is the problem but maybe Tuesday or Wednesday. I am still not sure if this will develope into anything more than a TD but at least it may increase rain over south Florida early next week. I am unable to get much forcasts on upper air in 3-5 days so right now its just a guess that winds will weaken in the upper levels late in the weekend to allow this system to develope slowly. Nothing to really worry about just monitor over the holiday weekend.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Here's the current:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_00.gif (0Z 5/24)
Here's the 12 hour forecast:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_12.gif
Here's the 24 hour forecast:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_24.gif
Here's the 48 hour forecast:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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thanks Steve, winds way too strong.
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Apparently a broad low pressure center exists SSW of Grand Cayman. TPC places it at 18N 82W with a pressure of 1009 MB, according to the latest tropical discussion. Ship/CMAN reports in the vicinity of the low confirm the weakness of the low. The lowest pressure I could find was 1010 MB at 17.4N 79.1W. Winds were ESE at 22 MPH. Grand Cayman reported winds of 13 MPH from the ENE and pressure of 1012. I couldn't find any reports farther south, so I don't know what westerly winds are out there. The low looked slightly more impressive yesterday, although most of yesterday's convection can be attributed to the trough and not the low.
Looking at satellite imagery this morning, a small cluster of convection has developed over the general vicinity of the low. However, southwest wind shear from the trough is preventing the development of a persistent, concentrated cluster of convection atop the low's center. Thus, immediate development will be precluded until the shear diminishes. As the cyclone off the NE US coast lifts out and the southern end of the trough breaks from the flow, shear will diminish somewhat over the next couple of days. High pressure over the southern Caribbean will build in slightly stronger and provide more conducive conditions aloft for development. Even so, it still appears like some southwest shear will continue. The low will have to survive for a while longer if it will have any chance for development. The low will also have to survive the influx of dry air from the west until more moisture can return.
As for motion, I would suspect NNE to NE. This would bring the system through the Bahamas and give Florida some rain and wind. With all this said, I don't think the system stands a very good chance for development. Just a little pre-season excitement to get us warmed up! We'll see.
Ronn
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Doug
Unregistered
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Actually the visible suggests the low itself, such as it is, is moving more westward. The shear is very evident and extends all the way to the Honduran coast. Unfortunately this may not become the rain maker we all need in Florida after all. EDS.
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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The circulation actually looks much better today. There just isn't a concentrated area of convection. I don't look for anything out of this either. Looks like the East Pac might get started though.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Is that the shear doesn't appear to be relaxing all that much in the next 48 hours. But this is a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday (if ever) event for South Florida anyway. If the surface low continues to drift in what appears to be a westerly direction, then the chances get better over time that when it does head out NNE or NE, it'll cross FL. There is an upper impulse moving toward my area today. If this doesn't pull north soon, it's going to mandate that whatever type of disturbed weather we have will have to move on out. Just the same, a response to the tailing trof might be some of the ammo needed to get this low cranking.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, our little friend in the NW Caribbean is still there, and appears to be getting a little better organised again. It is still a very weak system, but there is some moderate convection now firing up to the east and a little to the south of the apparent centre. There is some very isolated convection west of the centre too, but not a lot. It would seem to me too that the low is drifting west at the moment. However, i am inclined to agree with and the models, and reckon this system will turn to the NW during the next day or two.
As for further development... well! It really is tough to say. If the shear lets up then this system could become a TD or TS. But it needs to hold its circulation together. As long as the convection keeps trying to develop then there is the possibility of further development of this system.
Rich
StormWarn2000.com
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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