Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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I finally got a chance to view some visible imagery and the low is definitely moving west. Easterly surface winds are steering the low center because it has not developed vertically enough to be influenced by upper level winds. Any mid level center will be pushed east, with the low level center pushed west. This won't allow for the vertical stacking necessary for development. Plus, the low center is moving directly into very dry air as seen on water vapor imagery. Doesn't look too good for development. We'll have to see how much the shear diminishes and if the low survives.
Ronn
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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There's a storm brewing between May 29 and Nov 30. That's about the accuracy of the models. Your better off watching Saturday mornings cartoons. The animation is better and they make you laugh harder. Anyways. Will a low form down there? Most likely. When is anybody's guess......
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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System looking pathetic at the moment... Can discern broad LLC on the latest vis loop but its so weak and diffused, and has absolutely no convection associated with it... I estimate the center to be around 17.7N and 84.7W, if its even possible to get a fix on such a broad center... system appears to be moving very slowing west as best I can tell... the system has some significant hurdles to overcome in the next day or so if something is going to develop.
Hey, what ya expect, the season has not even started yet... still spring training for the tropics I guess...
If this becomes Authur, and that's a big IF, it certainly won't be no King to start off the season...
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Don't know if you caught Bastardi's column today, but he had this to say about the next 1-2 weeks:
>>This means that we have a window of a couple of weeks as this trof backs up to watch for things like this and so the idea the MRF has that we may have to watch again, further west( more central gulf than northwest Caribbean to near Florida as now) may not be bad. It is all part of the cycling we are in.
Maybe we'll get a little TD or TS taste. God knows I could use the rain here in Metairie.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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What Joe B. says sounds logical, now if it pans out remains to be seen...
New Orleans about 12 inches below normal in the rain department so I know you guys need some pretty bad... Same over on MS coast but not quite as bad... A little TD or TS could certainly help out in making up the deficit...
Mother Nature has a way of balancing things out doesn't she, so nothing surprises me anymore
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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The Caribbean low is still looking pathetic on satellite imagery and I don't think it is going to survive. Its slight westward movement has moved it even closer to hostile conditions and less of a chance of ever having more favorable upper level conditions for development. Abundant dry air is now consuming it.
Southwest wind shear will continue for at least another 72 hours as the trough remains fairly potent and an active subtropical jet continues across the Gulf of Mexico. If any development occurs in the Caribbean, I'm inclined to think it will be another separately formed low along the tail end of the surface front over Cuba...a hybrid system. This is what the models are forecasting. This system will accelerate in the southwest flow and be kicked out by a shortwave exiting the southeast U.S. coast early next week. In this case, Florida would experience an increase in wind, but not rain since the state would be on the dry side with subsiding air.
The hybrid scenario appears the most likely, with Florida getting only an increase in wind. Conditions are simply too hostile for the current low to develop.
Ronn
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND
CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS A
SUCCESS FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INSISTING ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE WEST AND THERE MAY BE SOME
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
GLOBAL MODEL AMPLIFIES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BECAUSE THE
DEPRESION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED. THIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST
MODEL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 295/04. A
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL KEEP THE
SYSTEM ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF MEXICO. AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE MAY FORCE THE
CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 11.6N 101.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 25/0600Z 11.8N 102.2W 35 KTS
24HR VT 25/1800Z 12.0N 103.0W 40 KTS
36HR VT 26/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 26/1800Z 13.0N 105.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 27/1800Z 13.5N 106.5W 65 KTS
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well i see from 's Tropical Wx Discussion that as the Trough and Front head east the convection is expected to become more concentrated over the NW Caribbean, in the approximate region where our very weak and poorly organised low is, but where computer models indicate development unanimously over the next few days. Defintely something to watch, even if it looks like the thing is on the brink of death at the moment.
On a side note, TD 1E has developed in the East Pacific, a good strong looking Depression, and forecast to strengthen. Also, i do like the new Graphics are using, especially indicating the Storms current location, forecast track of the centre, and potential range of the track too...
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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The convection and any development in the NW Carribean is about done and I just don't see how it could survive... Need to focus more to the east.
All the action tonight appears to be developing well to the east of the area we were watching the past 36 hours. Significant convection is developing SW, SE and E of Jamaca. No vis sat loop avaiable so not sure if this is all just mid to upper level convection. Try to get some local weather obs to see if we can detect any counter clockwise wind field...
Must be really bored tonight huh? Hunting for surface observations....  hehe
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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pretty rough weather in kingston jamaica just now. broad area of low pressure in the area still with some convective bursts mostly to the east. it still has the look of a trouble spot and can still give us something if the shear lets up. the models arent changing their tune.
if the eastpac depression starts to intensify its outflow jet may affect what happens with our caribbean system.. just how i dont know. could be that set off the eastpac system and could turn the switch on in the atlantic too.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Kingston reporting rain squalls with southeast winds at 33 mph and pressure at 1011 and falling... This was the lowest pressure reading I could find in the area.
Guantanamo Bay Cuba has east winds at 10 mph.
Ship report north of Cuba and GB at 21.0 and 74.2 has ENE winds at 13 knots
Haiti also has east winds at 12 mph
Could not find any data observations south or west of the area of convection. Still looking for some west winds on the bottom side of convection...
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houstontraker
Unregistered
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I was looking at the 24/1800z run of the for the Eastpac TD and noticed that it was showing a system developing south of Cuba between Jamaica and Grand Cayman. It took the system northward along the east coast of Florida to about Jacksonville then turns it southwestward over Florida towards the GOM.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Geeze...you guys are quick!
Hello again from PCB...looking forward to a busy year!
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Jason Kelley
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well convection has increased around the location of the weak 1009 mb low near the coast of Honduras... but any organisation is very poor, and until visible imagery is available it is difficult to tell. However, i still think there is a possibility of development in this region during the next few days. Whether this low we have been watching develops, or whether something develops from the disturbance near jamaica i would not like to say  . I just find it interesting that an invest is still in force for the Honduras low, and all the models continue to indicate development. Will continue to keep watching this general area for a day or two yet.
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Ah ha! I just looked at the 06Z Surface Analysis and something interesting showed up! The Analysis indicates the Honduras Low (our old friend the weak and poorly organised Disturbance 90L) on the coast of Honduras at 1010 mb, but forecasts it to move to near Jamaica (current location of most of the Convection) and deepens it just 1mb to 1009mb
Well if the low really does relocate to the area of convection, and does deepen just 1mb it indicates there remains a possibility of further development. Perhaps this is what the models have been picking up on! Now i really will be watching!
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Hey Jason , Welcome back !!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Jason
Great to know that you'll be around again this season on the board. Several topics back you were the subject of some complementary posts... deservingly so I might add...
Although I apologize that I couldn't remember your name, but more importantly, I remembered your excellent observations and forcasts from last year... Heck I'll be turning a half a century next month, I'm just glad I can still find my way home from work every day... 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Looking at the latest vis and IR sat pixs this morning and trying to figure out what's going on is challenging at best.
Still some significant convection off Jamaica, with Kingston having a BP of 1012, (steady) with SE winds at 13 mph. Guantanamo Bay Cuba has north winds at 8, pressure 1012.
We also have some buildup of convection off the coast of Nicaragua this morning. is still tracking this area as 90L invest.
What ever the heck happens, if anything, is going to take some time apparently, as some of the models have suggested the past day or so... Models... hmmmmmm nuff said
Edited by Frank P (Sat May 25 2002 11:38 AM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Interestingly have dropped their Special Tropical Disturbance Statement...
Sat pix are interesting today, but it is all very messy, and needs to get organised for much to happen.
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Cynthia
Unregistered
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000
WONT41 KNHC 251515
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2002
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT DEVELOPED
AS ANTICIPATED. THE WEAK AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE
LOCATE OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS..EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH JAMAICA...
EASTERN CUBAN AND HISPANIOLA.
BECAUSE AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS INSIST OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OCCURS.
FORECASTER AVILA
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