Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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90L - Convection has increased around the low pressure area... visible and IR imagery both confirming this... a large area of convection immediately east of the centre (16N 80W) with some scattered convection both to the south and west of the low too! Could be the start of an improvement in organisation of this persistent system!
On a side note, Tropical Storm Alma has now developed, and indicates yet another early start to the East Pac season.
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Convection below Jamaica appears to be more impressive this morning looking at the IR pixs. This time of the year persistence is a key factor in development, so we still having something to monitor in this area. Have not checked out the latest models this am but last night the hinted that something could slowly develop in this area and be located NE of Cuba in 120 hours.
Who knows, maybe a model will get lucky this year and one will actually come to fruition... YEAH RIGHT
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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If you view the vis sat loop this morning of the Caribbean long enough several things become quite obvious....
1. Hard to find any LLC, although a broad SFC low may be trying to form.
2. Surface clouds in northern Caribbean suggest hint of counter clockwise rotation, however not detectable in southern half
3. Area off the coast of Honduras that Rich has been monitoring suggests hint of possible mid level rotation, but no SFC low features, not yet IMO...
4. Shear not quite as bad as it has been for the past several days
5. You begin to hallucinate and clouds start to make images of old rock stars.
6. You then start suffering from early stages of post stress satellite loop delinerousness.... 
Time for me to go to church.. 
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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HEHEHE Good one Frank ,... And I thought it was just me !.. 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Ha...I thought it was just me suffering from the loop-de-loops, LOL...I'm glad it's not just me either! Sheesh. It's so BEAUTIFUL here today...I wish the weather would always stay this nice. Yeah, right, huh? Oh well.
Thanks to all of those who have served and are currently serving our country. If it wasn't for you, we would not be free to speak our minds (even though some should not be allowed to, LOL), vote (uh..what can I say? Just forget 2000..that was a fluke) and um...fly our flags high and proud.
God Bless.
Colleen 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Hello Colleen, Yea its still early !!! how are things in Lakeland ? 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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SEMPER FIDELIS !!! 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Rich....I am having trouble determining if there is a rotation by looking at the visibles because there are only so many frames...but is that area that you are talking about just to the west of Jamaica? Where all the t-storms are located? I thought I detected a hint of a rotation to the west of those. It looks like the t-storms are being blown off the main area of low pressure, but it's hard to tell without a few more loops to look at, of course.
I wonder if we'll have another year of classification, declassification and reclassification.
Maybe I'll do a poll.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Things in Lakeland are normal. Nothing ever happens here, LOL. The MOST excitement we have is when one of the big name rock stars come to practice at the Lakeland Civic Center...last year it was Ricky Martin, and we also had NSync, or however the heck you spell it.
It's a rocking town, man. That's all I can say. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Bummer That is why I live on the suncoast!! 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Colleen,
yes the area i am looking at the area just to the West of Jamaica, just west of the main area of thunderstorms activity and convection. Latest data i have from Kingston shows heavy rain, 1012mb, and winds from the ESE at 40 km/h, and Grand Cayman is reporting NE winds at 18 km/h, suggesting this is a broad low. Lowest pressure at the centre (which appears to be west of the thunderstorm activity is apparently around 1009 mb. There is some evidence of rotation, but it is not really that well defined. However, i do think this region is better organised now than it has been for the past couple of days.
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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oh, and the 12Z Surface Analysis shows the low west of Jamaica remaining nearly stationary and deepening to 1007 mb... just thought i would let you all know
HOWEVER... have deepened this system to 1004 mb as of 1530z! Interesting.
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
Edited by Rich B (Sun May 26 2002 11:56 AM)
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Pretty good vis here Jax
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well must still think there is a possibility of this system developing. After issuing what they said would be the final Statement yesterday, things must have changed significantly because they have just issued another Special Tropical Disturbance Statement for this system...
1700z report from Kingston shows pressure at 1013, heavy rain and winds at 50 km/h from the ESE.
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Can someone please freshen me up on exactly what we have going on.My monitor decided that it would fry on me Friday night and I had to buy another one.Do we have two seperate lows or is it just one (one around the Bahamas and one in the Caribbean)? If we do have two,which is the one that the models are picking up on because I read something off of the site that said it was the one around the Bahamas now that the models are jumping on the wagon about.What will happen with the one in the Caribbean? Help!!!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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hey byett we americans cant think in metric.. gotta remember that when you give us wind readings from kingston and such. theyve been getting some rough weather down there last few, these arent the first obs in recent days of squally weather down there.
other than there being a lot more convection with this whole disturbance, and finally a tropical storm alma in the eastpac.. there is one other thing ive noticed new today.
check the storm names list at the site. theyve finally updated it for this year and show the 2007 list.. three modifications:
allison is retired, replaced by andrea
iris is retired, replaced by ingrid
michelle is retired, replaced by melissa
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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ha ha ha, sorry for the metric posts... i cant use metric either but it was the reading i had here hence it was just reposted
I see have increased the wind speed of 90L from 20 to 25 knots now too, but the pressure is back up to 1009 mb. However, it does not look as organised as it did a few hours ago. Also the mass of convection over the Bahamas.... that might be an area to monitor over the next few days, especially as some models are indicating possible cyclogenesis in that region.
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Shawn, you really have not miss much in the past two days...We've been watching some convection flare up and down near Jamaica and off the coast of Honduras.
Looks to be an elongated trough of low pressure from Honduras to Jamaica with pressures around the 1011-1012 range. Most of the convection now appears to be on the eastern and southern half of the broad low pressure area.
One thing for sure its been persistently inconsistent... just like all the wonderful models we have to our disposal..... hehe
Several models (AVN and ) on Thursday indicated a pretty significant low pressure event off the coast of SC and NC on Monday...That scenario certainly didn't pan out...
The on Friday night forecasted a significant low pressure system travel up the east coast of Florida then cross northern Florida and head back sw to GOM... that's not gonna happen...
I bet the probability of success for models predicting weather events three, four or five days out is absolutely pathetic... Someone ought to track their performances... maybe we ought to even have a congressional hearing on em too 
Edited by Frank P (Sun May 26 2002 10:27 PM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Frank, you certainly made me laugh with your comments on the models... modern technology Well a computer is only as good as its programmer...
As for 90L, you were right about persistent thats for sure...
Rich
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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So, are you saying that all along I was right when I said that there were two lows,one around the Bahamas and the one in the Caribbean,with the one around the Bahamas being the one that the models were picking up on? I guess I can't be wrong all of the time! I took a look at Accuweather.com and they are saying that the trough that was suppose to pick up the system in the Caribbean is not going to pick it up now and the models are all over the place with where it will go.Now they are saying that it will stay in that area for a while.Maybe everyone should keep their eyes open on this one,including us in Texas.
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