Anonymous
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here in pensacola wind is been about 30mph real windy all after noon you would think a storm was coming could ed gost still be in the game red ball seems to be taking away from fay this crazy what do you guys think
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Anonymous
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I'm trying to figure out whats going on with Fay. Steve Lyons says shes moving toward the coast, I don't know I guess his opinion is as good as any at this point. Maybe part of it is, but if you look at the shortwave IR
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
you can pick out a circulation centered on about 28/95 or so. It will be interesting to see if he convection reforms tonight around this. Pressures still seem to be lowering so I'm not quite ready to say it's over yet. Recon will be there soon so maybe that will answer a few questions.
Frank P and Steve what do ya think ?
Houstontracker
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Anonymous
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is there a chance fay dont move then moves east away from the uper low
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Frank P
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Hey Houstontracker, get ready to grow some web feet over there.......
Not had much of a chance to really look at things today.. Busy as heck remodeling my house.. Kind of in a vuneralble condition so I was a busy bee... Will say this, the MS coast got pounded with some torrential rains late this afternoon... and some pretty good gusts.. Not sure if it was the remaints of old Eddie or a stray feederband from Fay... closest thing to a tropical system around here since Georges...
Convection not all that impressive right now with Fay, only on the northern half, still stationary... heard talk about stacking problems today... sounds like what we experienced with several storms from last year... everything continues to indicate that this should be a significant rain make for you guys over there... good luck and stay dry...
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Anonymous
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Fay's history is to spawn it's convection with a minor burst after midnight with the real pulse up coming between 5-7am. Rainfall amounts are really starting to pop just off the coast. There is a 'worm' of 12-15" moving closer to the coast between Victoria and Galveston if I've got my TX coastal cities right.
Due to relentless shear, most of the convection tonight is well north of the circulation. This doesn't really bode well for the UT Coast if Fay eventually decides on a WNW-NW track. It's worse if she stalls longer than expected. has delayed landfall by 12 hours since yesterday. I never thought Fay would move in overnight tonight to begin with, but they have to go with what the consensus of the modes and their forecasters come up with.
In any event, it looks like the initial threat is from just SE of Houston southward. I'm sure overall there will be plenty of 5-10" amounts. But there will be more than just an isolated 15-25" when it's all said and done.
On the IR loop you provided, it almost looks like the center is between 96 and 97, but that could easily be a trick of the IR.
Anyway, sounds like an exciting time in Texas. Wish I was there. It's cloudy and breezy here tonight. I miight go grab some tequila and sit on the front porch enjoying my 2002 tropical weather.
Steve
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HanKFranK
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everything ive been watching is verifying ok. fay still under shear, slowly working towards the coast. now very doubtful about the storm becoming a hurricane, as the upper air features across the atlantic dont seem to be changing much. so my worst idea earlier will probably be that the storm would become a weak hurricane. thus, as edouard was endlessly pelted by shear, fay is getting similar treatment. main convective burst is onshore in brazoria and matagorda counties. training of precip is reminiscent of allison, but this time not over houston.. so destructive potential is much lower. thinking an extreme but not terribly widespread flooding event a la allison will be the story of fay.
other features progressing more or less as imagined. forecast cyclogenesis in the southern bahamas.. am thinking further east, maybe north of hispaniola or PR. probably initially move NE or N, hook around to west by early next week and close in on the carolinas. think the amplification next week is overdone, so probably just slow down and behave erratically. already mentioning it could be subtropical, so sort of expecting them to classify it as such.. but probably in the end be a fully tropical system.
95L.. convection is going. has a fairly circular burst signature, slowed down significantly and now following the disintegrating central altanic trough. probably move generally north with westward meanderings next few days... expect this to be a depression tomorrow.
system to the south is maintaining structure and slightly more convective.. though still very scant. moving westward as it has dissociated from the invest to the north. 17/51 coordinates.. shear is light. SSTs picking up ahead and speed/convergent environment maybe improving.. though in spite of all this still a slim chance feature.
various models are playing with gulf and near cuba ideas.. but pretty vague and inconsistent. waiting for some signs to appear before i get interested in the slightest.
thinking invest on the new wave/low around 20w. models taking it wnw with little change indicated.. puzzled by what to think as there is so far no analysis and no invest closeup shots of structure are available. the 6hr meteosat shots are woefully inadequate and leave the easternmost part of the basin a place of uncertainty to the eye.
anyhow, is it just me or does the goes 8 not give a view of the basin from midnight to dawn? always wondered.. its a geostationary satelite.. why no pics in the wee hours?
there, done, gnight. got to drive a good distance tomorrow.
HF 0745z07september
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Cycloneye
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1-The system near the Bahamas that all models agree to develop a susface low and develop a significant TC that will threaten the east coast.
2-95L may be TD#7 later today as it has organized overnight and has SAB T number 2.0 but will be a fish.
3-Strong wave that came out of africa 2 days ago today it is trying to get better organized but to early to say if this system will be a threat to the lesser antilles in the comming days.
So those are the systems that may develop in the comming days as the peak of the season is at the 10th.
What do all think of those systems developng into TC at the same time?
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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HanKFranK
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fay jumped inland overnight. now on its way down, but slowly as its broad center is piggybacking the coastline. moving into the texas hill country to rain itself out. remember seeing the convective hook inland last night and saying 'naah' but bad call on my part.. exactly what it was doing.
sw atlantic low developing looks ominous this morning. should be a ragged low on satelite by this evening, possibly starting as a deep layer system.
95L probably should have been upgraded this morning at 5am. any higher numbers would indicate a tropical storm.
system to the south decided to take a break, convection weakened again. now near 17/53.
20w wave plugging along.
HF 1307z07september
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Anonymous
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Fay has jumped inland and will probably produce 20 inches of rain in some locations BUT not over Houston...training bands haven't been all that numerous there as some have said here. Somebody will get waterlogged bigtime...but it doesn't look like Houston.
Wave SE of Bermuda should be a depression late this morning or more likely later this afternoon. Convection look good and signature is decent. Kind of small so any increase in shear would make this storm very characteristic of this 2002 season: short-lived and weak.
The African is definitely going to be something in the coming days. Yesterday all of the convection was west of the wave axis but today convection is now consolidated into a tight ball. Conditions ahead are pretty good, too. Main obstacle for this system will be upper-level trough that sheared and destroyed Dolly. This one should be a pretty slow developer so should miss any threating upper-level features. *IF* this one tries to go all the way (10-15 days out) the stage looks cleared for it. I've been looking at what the tracking map looks like and it seems like we need a long track system to make things complete. It's still a few days from peak folks...but the seasons have been late the past few years it seems like.
Convection blowing up quite nicely east of the Bahamas this morning, I agree with HF that a low could try to form here later today. This is a watch and see thing, but with all of the tricks Edoaurd played with us we have to watch carefully.
BTW...Tropical Depression 7 (Floyd) formed three years ago today.
Should be at least an INVEST and maybe even T-numbers on African wave. Be surprised at no INVEST for it. Definitely getting better organized, definitely something to watch.
Kevin 
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Kevin
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home
Noname for 95L means TD but will be a fish system only Bermuda will have to deal with it.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Frank P
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During the past week we've had two systems in all right should have developed into at least minimal hurricanes, especially Edouard....
All season long the tropics have had these well defined, quite strong upper level lows... they have be abundant all season, and in all areas... and has been the quite the factor on dampening the season to date...
Weather pundits talk about the effect of El Nino... is this creating all the strong ULLs? Is there a direct corrolation?
Everytime you check out a WV Loop there is always multiple ULLs dancing all over the screen... seems very unusual to me... weather along the MS coast this am is pretty dreary... stong southerly winds and thunderstorms.. very tropical to say the least..
Wonder when we'll get that first real storm... season to date has been practically non-existant...
Edited by Frank P (Sat Sep 07 2002 02:54 PM)
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Anonymous
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"Another strange thought with this. Maybe that band over the gulf does not follow Fay, but is its one entity. Amazingly the 48 hour eta has low pressure over the west central gulf, right where the ghost of Edouard would have been. The moral of the story is that some tough forecasts lay ahead for Texas and Louisiana, and the issue of where that moisture goes in relation to the trof that comes by to its north next week will also have to be resolved."
Meanwhile here in Spring, TX (north suburb of Houston) a very tropical day, frequent bands of heavy showers moving through with breaks of sun in between. The more sun we get though will likely mean more rain later as the atmosphere has a better chance to warm up. Lots of moisture downstream,so whether something else tries to spin up or it all just gets pulled over us around Fay's circulation it looks like a wet couple of days for SE Texas. Also looks like a new Tornado watch is coming up for our area.
Houstontracker
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Kevin
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Loc: EC Florida
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Fay is now a TD and weakening, let HPC deal with it, it's over with for you guys.
TD 7 is TD7...buoy data supports this low being upgraded.
Bahamian system must be watched as it could really get going when it does start to develop. It is showing signs of doing this now.
But, is this too much to mention the AFRICAN WAVE which is DEFINITELY SLOWLY ORGANIZING???? Of course not! Their reasoning right now purely boggles me...this wave clearly has a circular structure and if the convection keeps consolidating like it is we will have a low here within 24 hours! I can guarantee it! It may be well out for now but needs to do their job fully and correctly and mention ALL areas that have potential to develop.
Just needed to get that off of my chest.
Kevin
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troy2
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Loc: cocoa beach
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from the 8:30 disc am discussion 9/7
TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 21W IS ADVANCED AHEAD TO ALONG
26W SOUTH OF 18N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON AN 0700 QUIKSCAT
PASS WHICH WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS
IN WHICH THE WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 23W. GIVEN THE NEW
POSITION...PRESENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 20 KT. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE WAVE IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 23W-27W.
no updates for gen discussion at 11am
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Kevin
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Loc: EC Florida
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The next TWD will be at 2:05 PM. We'll see what it says about the African wave then. Needs to be watched.
Recon is also going into the Bahamas system tomorrow. This could very well be a major hurricane down the road so all interests along the SE U.S. coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Kevin
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Anonymous
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Fay went as scheduled a moderate TS and went inland 55 miles SW of Galvestine. I actually got the location right on exactly ( that is very hard todo) and still will produce rainfall amounts up to 6 inches in localized downpoors. Elswhere TD 7 has developed and should continue a WNW direction over the next few days. It could become a TS over the next 48 hours but should run into sheering after that. I expect a slow and general movement and head off towards the Bermuda location. Finally the 1st hurricane of the season that i been posting about for a week now should become classified as a TS later on Sunday. Tropical or Subtropical I expect this to be a hurricane later on Monday and move generally N of due W towards the S Carolina area,,then turn and move N then NE scraping the carolinas especially the Cape and move quickly out to sea during midweek. Winds could reach cat 3 but as on now playing back as a Cat 2 for now. Also a area some models want to form off cuba and the keys early next week will be very questionable and I will post more on this later suday and on my own personal hurricane page. scottsvb web page hurricaneupdatecenter
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