John C
Unregistered
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Tropical Depression Fay has died out over Texas, and the tropics elsewhere remain active, yet so does shear.
Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the Central Atlantic (fairly far north), and heading northwest. Not a threat to land.
Other areas include a wave in the eastern Atlantic that faces a great deal of shear, nevertheless development is possible.
FInally an area in the southern Bahamas can be considered the most immediate potential headache. It has fairly good potential for development over the next few days, I don't expect this one to move fast. Shear exists in the area too, and lightens up a tiny bit later on this weekend.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 07 2002 11:45 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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>>training bands haven't been all that numerous there as some have said here. Somebody will get waterlogged bigtime...but it doesn't look like Houston.
They got lucky. When the main blob of convection moved into the UT Coast, there were three or four trainig lines that didn't stay with the system. The main feed is east of me. The moral is that Fay could have been disasterous if she was tapping her moisture from closer in. As it was, there are three 18-20" spots, and at least 1 20+ just offshore. Coastal TX residents should consider themselves pretty lucky.
Steve
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Scott, one suggestion, before you get on here and pat yourself on the back, AGAIN, try and learn how to spell the cities correctly.... it is GALVESTON, not GALVESTIN. My gosh, it's even on the front page of this site for you.
Steve, we may not be done with the rain after all. I've seen some of the local mets who say all the stuff in the gulf right now, which some of it is remains of our buddy Eddie, could roll in here tonight and tomorrow. I'm not buying it just yet, but I guess it could happen. 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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You said earlier this week this TC near the bahamas was gonna head west across the Florida peninsula under the huge ridge, then into the GOM. I'm disappointed. Steve H. PS: WHat happened to the ridge?
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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This developing system will be if all conditions are right a cane but I am jumping so quick on a system that is not even classified but all signs point for that.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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LATE SATURDAY PM POST: GHOST OF EDOUARD TO UNLOAD ON SE TEXAS: The system over the central gulf is along a wave axis that would, if one tracked the movement of Edouard, find it is very close to where Edouard pressure fall axis will be. The rapid disappearance of Fay without much of a whimper is leaving room for this system to cause, at the very least, more rain problems for southeast Texas than Fay did.
As of 5 pm no low has developed but winds are turning to the east on the northwest gulf coast and are southwest in the western gulf. The upper ridge awaits so at the very least, the divergence aloft and low level pressure trof argue for a major southeast Texas rain event. If the system can slow, it will have a chance to develop, since Faye will be dead and buried by tomorrow morning and was a hybrid.
Interesting
Houstontracker
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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back from the ribber. no sunburn, yaay. too many girls, bigger yaay.
saw that gulf convergence even before reading bastardi.. was wowed.. read bastardi and am now pondering the possiblities. though not extremely likely, something could develop under the upper high, not west of it as fay did. probably a half measure feature like fay.. but i dunno..
maybe all those model runs making gulf trouble had something realisitic in mind after all..
well they went and upped 95L to TD7.. good job . it isnt intensifying in a hurry.. actually looks like crap. turned back to the west today (?). well guess maybe it will do that for a while. environment not wonderful but not too horrible.. i guess it could weaken from here on in, but think it more likely it becomes a weak tropical storm and slowly moves further west.
wave south of there well defined with a good oblong rotation, but no convection. shear goes to next to nothing in about a day along its track.. but with no convection, just a wave headed into the islands.
east atlantic wave not looking terribly organized, but plenty of energy with it. there is supposedly a broad surface low with it.. should begin to show on goes 8 visibles tomorrow, until then not a very good idea what its doing.
the big story: 97L. not developing in traditional tropical fashion, may indeed be subtropical in its initial stages.. but as this sucker deepens and structures itself... which i think it should.. has a pretty good shot at becoming a hurricane. doubt all the globals are lying to me for one, and really like the look this thing has for deuce.
most of the models bring it up to the carolina coast tuesday, only a couple actually take it ashore. the rest slow it down offshore and turn it out to sea. either solution puts a system close enough to the carolinas to give the kids a holiday at the coast.
unless it slows as the ridge weakens to the north earlier this week offshore.. the ashore approach wouldnt give it sufficient time to become an intense hurricane.. so TS to moderate hurricane is the likely range of strength.
sooner this thing organizes the further west it will go.
anyway a TD and a few potential trouble spots.. one very likely and two more with decent chances.
G and H storms look pretty certain by the end of next week.
bastardi's talk about the pattern break in october-- sudden pattern shift in october correllates in time with the active span for the western carib.. undulating ridge/troughs eastern u.s. tend to stir things up down there. so maybe another good hurricane in mid/late october in the western carib coming north this year.. thats out there. just a chump guess if it verifies anyway.
okay, quitting analysis. why dont i just make short to the point posts like every sane person on here?? stuff is so under my skin.
by the way not too hard on scottsvb. knock him for being haughty yes, definitely, but not for having totally unsound ideas.. he did see trouble brewing down there early on, and did bet on it having a westward component. can't discredit the entirety of his foresight. away from the microscope he had the right general idea. took it too far yes, but thats a matter of interpretation.. you can hate the for inventing fake storm tracks and have to admit it may see too much trouble, but that it doesnt often not see it coming. decent analogy. better be ok to have only a clue, 'cause i NEVER seem to hit the nail without taking a few whacks at it.. nor does anyone else. including the expert/official sources.
ok ill shut the ---- up. applause.
HF 0127z08september
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Ok I know the is infamous for exagerating storms or future storms but take a look at the 18 z
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002090718-seven07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
right on the heels of the sytem aroun dthe Bahamas is not one but 2 systems in a row originating off the tip off Florida.
Kinda weird check it out just for kicks!
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Tonight I'm just going to go into detail about what I think the Bahamian system could do.
I'd like to start by saying that I don't believe the low is going to form at 30N. That looks WAY to far north...seems as if it could develop at around 25N. We'll see what recon says tomorrow if they go out there. The track is dependant on the intensity in a high manner. We are still clueless about the intensity for now. The possibilities are (not in any order or probability):
1. System develops around 30N as models suggest and develops to near minimal hurricane strength. Brushes or briefly makes landfall along coastal North Carolina.
2. System develops rapidly along 25N and recurves as a category 3 or greater. Bothers no one directly.
3. System develops slowly around 25N, begins to curve NW but misses trough (like Edouard) and recurves towards anywhere from Melbourne, Florida to Savanah, Georgia. Makes landfall as a strong cat 1 or borderline cat 2.
It should be noted that this year the "home grown" storms have had a habit of near-missing or totally missing trough connections.
My final word (for now): If this thing develops a low center near 30N, a threat from NC northward seems likely. A slow developer near 25N and, well, I hope Edouard was a good drill for Floridians because this might just be the real thing given proper location and intensity of the system. We'll know a LOT more by later tomorrow. Even the NWS in Melbourne said, "Forecast is totally up in the air after Monday". All interests from EC of Florida to North Carolina need to keep a very close eye to their south and east.
I believe this will recieve the name "Gustav" if it goes tropical. "Gustav"...kinda sounds a little scary like Georges.
Kevin
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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sounds.... french
*shudder*
by the way fay is hooking around sw inland.. a bit north of cotulla, tx. got the SW bit right. woo hoo. now watch it turn back to the west.
HF 0320z08september
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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"Gustav" is Bavarian in it's origin if I am correct. Hey...my local met is a complete idiot though. Said that TD7 should be our first cane. What an ass...there shouldn't even be advisories on this thing. Pressure at 1016 and barely any convection. Yeah...that'll be a hurricane when the next Ice Age comes.
Still watching to see what Bahamas will do. Guess I'll see how it looks in the morning.
Kevin
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Kevin
which staion?? On the subject of Orlando wx people
there really hasnt been an animated weather guy since Danny Trainor. And he had to um, resign
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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hey, give TD 7 a little credit. hung on as an invest for five days before being classified, and upstream im not so sure about what conditions it will meet. possibly support as there is a split in the flow ahead, one jet tailing the receding central atlantic trough into that sharp trough in the east atlantic.. and the other hooking around to the sw into the caribbean. could provide diffluent support (though i admit this is not likely).
nuff about the TD. other things:
1) 97L putting up some deeper convection on the last pics. presentation isnt improving in a huge hurry, but it has improved a lot since saturday morning. this of course could be our bavarian storm tomorrow.. (german names in the atlantic basin??)
2) gulf disturbance convection on the slide from earlier.. convergent surge supporting has weakened. inland with fay i get this strange idea it might develop a new feeder band off the gulf and start tracing it back SE... seems really off the wall but for some reason it wont leave my mind.
3) the much mentioned wave off africa.. there is a low level swirl that ran out ahead, shows up well even on IR2. think this is the low formerly associated with the wave. lot of subsidence out there.. and i think the high amp trough in the far east atlantic sheared its convection away. tempted to say.. so much for that. but it is a fairly energetic feature for sure.
4) graphic is showing a positive anomaly patch that has developed over the atlantic. might bring our activity burst to an end, or just be a flub. shear has become quite a bit more pronounced over the last week or so.
HF 0431z08september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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sorry about typo shawn. I'm always very busy and just rush thru these reports and dont have time to check out my spelling which im sure is pretty bad. On that note dont jump on me cause of the typo bit,, you cry so much in here it seems you must be only 8. I loved weather at that age too. I just want to say every little cloud in the gulf wont always become a storm, you seem to always ask that. Anyways sorry about going off, kinda pist about bashing me on a spelling note, i notice alot of sps on others but i dont critize anyone on that note.
On the system off the bahamas yes I did say that i expected it to form there and then move thru N florida into the gulf, upper level flow hasnt developed as expected last week. Now only a modest movement to the w is expected then off to the north which i also agreed with others in here on over the last 2 days now. Anyways still having a hard time seeing if a system will develop over near S florida and move NNE. Time will tell on that too. sorry again for any typos in this and the future.
scottsvbhurricaneupdatecenter BTW shawn I am a Met.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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center seems to be forming near 26.2N and 74.5W to the sw of the center of the upperlow. Though the low level center is alittle further south then what the models forcasted, as always in a early stages, many vortexs are spinning about.
scottsvb
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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scott typos arent such a bad thing.I am dyslexic so i reverse words all the time Just glad you arent my accountant with that typing 
but it may explain why the is allways way off 
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Gosh you guys are so funny! You helped to wake me up this Sunday morning. I had to laugh as I was reading your post and sipping my coffee. lol lol
Re. the SW Bahamas situation:
If the LLC is farther S. than what the models are saying, and it just sits there for a while I don't think that it is unreasonable to at least have a possible W track across Fl.The trough may have very little influence on it OR it may just miss the trough altogether. Pinwheel Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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fay looks to be coming back to the gulf
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Could the models be picking up on the ghost of Fay? Just looking at the new runs. Most of the models are indicating some new activity in the GOM. Pinwheel Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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this couid be i just seen the models they show a storm coming across the gulf will it be fay i think so were will she go and will she be the first h please give feedback
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