J.J.
Unregistered
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I agree with Hank, for the most part...the LOW off the SE coast looks subtropical. Upper-level analyses show that it's directly east of a trough, on the divergent side, a location where wave cyclones frequently form. Compound that with its vague comma-like appearance, and the case for it being subtropical is substantial. Nevertheless, it may become tropical later. If it forms, I'm think it will do the typical recurvature thing, and not hit the East Coast.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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NHC has started bulletins on Subtropical Depression #8 - see Storm Forum.
Cheers,
ED
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Fay back from the dead? It sure looks like she's stalled out to me. Every 00 model missed the NC coast with eventual Gustav. I don't have a call one way or the other.
But can someone either please send me some sunshine or some tropical weather? It's been cloudy here for days and days and days. And while we've had intermittant drizzle and an occasional band run through, it's mostly been just east or west and south of here.
Steve
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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What do you think the chances are of Fay making it back into the gulf and redeveloping? Joe B. seems to be quite worried about it. If, and that is a BIG IF, this were to happen than I think it would head more on an easterly path. The problem here is that the locations that got the almost twenty inches of rain a couple of days ago could see even more in the next few days. Didn't we go through this same kind of ordeal last year with another female by the name of Allison?!?!?
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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idea that fay might backtrack has only to do with the tendency for a tropical cyclone center to develop towards its support, and for climo on texas systems to move inland and behave erratically. since there isnt much to steer the system, im guessing it could do it.. but there isnt any kind of clear push back like the one allison had.
there is also the tendency for models wanting to maintain unsettled weather in the gulf.. guess that plays in with the whole idea too.
subtd 8.. close up visibles are showing lots of small vortices pinwheeling around. system is getting a better deep-system proflie as strong atmospheric lifting is generating these. still awkwardly organized, but expecting hurricane hunter to find gale force winds already, when it gets in there in a couple hours. as for track.. something new finally appeared in the runs.. one of the ukmet ones wants to phase it in and takes it very close to cape cod. stands out among the various NE buttonhook solutions. some models are making subtd 8 a very intense cyclone, by the way.
td 7.. looks for the worse. only little catch here is that an upstream shear-friendly environment exists.. but by then expect the low to be disorganized and just a chunky piece of inflow for what should be gustav at that point.. to digest.
wave near 35w.. very low amplitude but quite energetic. upper winds are becoming less favorable in the east atlantic though.. and lots of subsidence. just have to see how well the considerable amt of convection can hold on.
so likely tropical system moving towards the carolinas early week, possibly up the coast. various models want to maintain disturbed weather in the gulf.
td 7 weakened or maintained as a weak feature.
wave that went into the islands this morning well defined but convectionless.. unimportant now.
a couple more energetic waves to come off africa this week.
thats the way things stand right now.
HF 1631z08september
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Well Steve, we don't have any tropical weather at this time so it looks like I will have to send you sunshine. It is a beautiful day in the St. Pete area. We have had some pretty wicked rains in the afternoon hours though.
Looks like the remains of Fay may be breathing again, the models are picking up on some energy in the GOM and wants to take it into FL. latter in the forcast period. Still a little early to count on it, but I guess the possibility is there. What are your thoughts???? Pinwheel Toni
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
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The way I see things is that Fay is a used to was and we have a wet thingy in the eastern Atlantic that does not yet know what it wants to be when it grows up. The politics on this one might kill us all. (lol)
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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That would be 2 out of 3 for . It called (with the wrong intensity) the path of Edouard before any other model and it's been predicting a pinwheel/fujiwara for 4 straight days now.
Wow.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Edouard's not done yet. It's temporarily howling here.
Steve
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I know we got the other systems out there, but I'm most concerned with the remains of both Fay and Eddie. I don't know what to make of the situation that is going on right now. It looks like Fay's center is not moving even though there has been talk of it moving back towards the coast. The activity in the gulf looks like it is more feeder bands from the circulation of Fay, but I know that Eddie is out there , somewhere.I'm not sure what all this means for us here in southeast Texas and what the chances are of Fay moving back over the water. I need some help on this one. I do have to say that Fay has kept her circulation quite nicely,though. I also noticed that at last report she still had a pressure down around 1006 with winds of 20 mph. If she did somehow make it back over the water, I don't think it would take much for her to get going again. What I do know is that the local radar here is full of activity right now.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Will this subtropical storm be pure tropical is the question as time goes by?
By the way the wave in the atlantic has more attention from the TPC as it has been mentioned at the so let's see what the wave will do but right now it is fighting the shear and the trough in the area.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.html
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Sun Sep 08 2002 10:27 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Have you guys notice the pressure falls in the gulf. I think we may be in for round 2. Barry B
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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remember how a year ago the decreed that atlantic to pacific basin crossers would retain their names? well seems like theyre just going to use normal names for subtropical systems now, as the title 'sutropical storm gustav' is being used instead of subtrop 1. recon got a flight level temp of 23C.. note if that rises when they drop the subtrop title. pretty close to warm core if i'm not mistaken, in spite of the loose structure with all the entrained subsidence.
by the way, when all that subsidence is pressed out, watch how quickly gustav will deepen. also, globals are in good agreement on track.. so far theyve had a good handle on gustav, so the coast nip and out has good credibility. now the question is: are they under forecasting the ridge with gustav pumping it? the recurvature has been getting less sharp on all, have to see if the track keeps bending closer to the NE. bastardi calls the gulf a 'headache'. fay hasnt done much besides rain itself out, not moving much just north of cotulla texas. same place it was 20 hours ago. convergence over the gulf is being called the 'edouard ghost'... i dont necessarily think of it that way. there isnt any real focal point to it or pressure min.. sort of at the whim of whatever the low level winds are doing more synoptically. havent seen any sizable pressure falls, so not like something is about to pop. its just wait and see if anything tries to focus energy.
td 7 remnants still spinning and throwing a little convection. if it still has its definition tomorrow, the shear will have improved signifcantly.. if not it will just entrain in gustav. this little feature strikes me as a survivor, as edouard was.
east atlantic wave/low shrouded in mystery. very convective, but low cloud movement tells of a broad, e-w elongated circulation. lots of subsidence upstream, and upper air winds less than ideal, though not in killer mode. no hurry to develop here, pretty definitely not going to try recurving early.
recap, gustav is the big story, fay is still pesky, TD 7 probably done but not for certain.. and an energetic wave in the east atlantic with an abnormal presentation.
fin.
HF 0002z09september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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check this out gulf coasters 120hrs http://hurricane.essc.psu.edu/cgi-bin/45km.cgi?time=2002090800-MANUAL1&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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you like what the link above shows? here's another one:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis
look at the 18Z avn runs from day 3 to day 6.
this is of course gobbledegook, but we have disturbed weather there.. and some models are for some reason triggering a low (and you know what low in the gulf in september means) south of louisiana.
HF 0037z09september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hi, I have been a "lurker" here for a couple of years now, really enjoy all the post.
I live in Friendswood TExas, and this Fay has me kinda worried. I keep hearing that she will come back toward the coast. REminds me of Allison  . I really don't want to go thru that again! I guess what I'm asking is, could someone please tell me what (if anything) we can expect down here? It would really ease my mine a little bit. Thanks! 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Oh no HankFrank -
Thats not good for the AL coast either.
Southern
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looks like FORT MEYERS IN 6 DAYS
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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the gulf has been stormy for days something will go there or fay will come out we will see but looks good
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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look south at the bay if that gets in the gulf look out
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