Anonymous
Unregistered
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She was spinning down when she came ashore on the panhandle, which was fortunate. This is not to downplay her impact, but I believe Kevin was referring to the west coast of Florida (tampa-St. Pete) and points south. IMO there is still too much chaos in the GOM to get things going for a rapidly intensifying system. Models are all over the place, and the biggest question is which part of the trough takes command from the Mid-west to the East; the lead or the trailer? WIll determine the pitch of the Ridge and which way the low?? will go. ETA prefers the W. GOM/AVN the East- Central/ GGEM Bahamas. Meantime 95L hanging by a thread, but if it makes it thru the next 24 hours could regenerate. Seems like the wave at 40ish is getting pulled to the north by the trough, so that might go bye bye. Life is so complicated. Cheers!! Steve H. BTW, El Nino could kill the October part of the season for the Caribbean which essentially turn off the tropics. I'm beginning to think it's looking that way. But hey, i could be wrong, but there are warm anomalies building in the western/central Pacific.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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I agree Florida needs to keep an eye to the SW...to answer your question, and this is from a life long set of experiences, the only storms that have influenced the west coast (westcentral) of Florida have been some late season very disorganized storms such as Marco, and last season's Gabrielle ( which really was a huricane by the way).
There may have been some others, but I cannot recall too many. We have experienced huricane conditions from storms moving north or away to the NW as they pass by, but have not had that direct hit in my life time. Donna was a Cape Verde storm in the early 60's that spun into the coast south of Ft. Myers, and that is the last one. I know Marco and Gabrielle had a direct hit in the Sarasota, Bradenton area, with relatively minor damage of course.
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doug
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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gulf boys go to bed the dry are to the north is going south another no go this is crazy but true good night
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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One last item before I sign out again for awhile...it appears that a cyclonic circulation is forming just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and it looks more advanced at 5:00p.m. than this morning. Some models are suggesting development by Thursday.
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doug
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caneman
Unregistered
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Don't forget Gordon year before Gabby. SKirted just off the coast and think went up to Cedar Key. The one I remember most was Elena, even though it didn't make landfall here we had some really nasty weather from it and she kept us in suspense for about 3 days. Nothing terrible yet though. And BTW-I agree Gabby was Hurricane. I've heard Joe B. and others state that. Hardly disorganized though went from 40mph to 70mph (atually probably 75mph in just 6 to 8 overnight hours. We're lucky it ran out of room.
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ROB H
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Clearwater, FL.
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Read in a article in the st. pete times about two weeks
ago. The last hurricane to make landfall near tampa was in
1921 (palm harbor/tarpon springs area) had estimated 100
mph winds, originated in the carrib.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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if this thing goes they say it wont move till sat it could go anyplace
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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A very intresting looking GOM this evening with widespread showers and thunderstorm activity. TBW radar shows a heavy band of showers and embeded thunderstorms. Don't think this will hold together but...18z models have a swath of rain from tampa south and west into gulf of mexico. AVN may or may not be overdone with development in gulf. Hard to say at this point given the broad area of low pressure. But certainly something to keep a close eye on this week. Shear maps show the area becoming a bit unfavorable for developmet. But given we have seen some weak storms this season in shear would count this out yet. Take it easy Joe
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Sorry didn't log in on the above post.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Something just might develop in the gulf but I don't believe it will come our way here in Texas.This is the time of year when we start to get troughs and fronts to come through that take them away from our area. I must say that it was kind of an interesting season for us in Texas but I believe OUR hurricane season here is over. I can now look forward to college football and hopefully cooler weather.
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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West Central Florida is long over due for a major hurricane but we've seen a few tropical storms that has caused some extensive flooding problems in the St. Pete area. Does anyone remember TS Josephine in 96? She may have come ashore in N. Fl. but she caused some terrible flooding in this area. Residents in our NE area lost every thing they had due to such severe flooding. I was suprised that a TS that far away would cause so much trouble. When a storm hits N of us the bay acts like a wash tub and just runs over. If we get hit south of here the bay water can actually be pulled out of the bay and flooding is not nearly as bad.
By the way Josephine orginated in the SW GOM . Earl in 98 also orginated close to Texas/ Mexico.
Toni 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Latest obs from the GOM buoys running pretty low from 1007 in west GOM to 1008 in central GOM.... wind velocities not that impressive generally measuring in upper teens.
http://www.ems.psu.edu/wx/buoydata/curr/gulfofmex.html
IR shows some impressive deep convection in the south central GOM... convection has been relatively persistent for most of the day... certainly something for all to watch...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I don't know about you all but Frisco NC on Hatteras Island got slammed. We had four feet of water in our garage. It came out of nowhere. I think the forcasters were a little off on this forcast
Red Drum Pottery
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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oh ya Frank ~!!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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there will be nothing in the gulf dry air is going all the way to key west the gulf will be nice this weeked all you need to do is look at the w/v loop so go to bed all i here is a storm this weeked not in the gulf
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
845 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2002
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...KEEPING SE TX AND SW LA HIGH AND DRY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
AT PRESENT...GREATEST CONCERN IS THE GULF. SFC ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW LOTS OF WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL GULF. SFC
PLOT DEPICTED A 1007 LOW ABOUT 300 TO 350 MILES SOUTH OF CAMERON.
ALSO TALKED TO SAWRS OBSERVER AT KH08. HE SAID THE PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO FALL. SATELLITE...HOWEVER...SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA TRYING TO KILL CONVECTION. ALL GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTION AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. DO NOT LIKE THE
AVN SCENARIO AT ALL AS STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN BASE OF AN UPPER
TROF. STILL LEANING TOWARDS ETA WHERE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY... OCCURS ACROSS W CNTRL OR SW GULF UNDER 250 MB RIDGE WITH
WEAKER SHEAR.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
805 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2002
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL GULF. MODELS DIFFER IN
SOLUTIONS WITH ETA AND LATEST TAKING SURFACE LOW TOWARD TEXAS
WHILE AVN TAKES SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
Hey Frank USM got another nice win this past weekend. My REBs will be out here in Texas at Lubbock this weekend, we are going to show them how football is played in the south.... I hope.
Houstontracker
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Looking at the water vapor loop their inst that large of an area of drier air. Plus currently the Keys have very little dry air.
Doubt the dry air will push that far south and stay there this time of year. That isnt saying anon was wrong and a storm is going to push through FL. Just saying that i doubt there will be a big push of dry air that far south (Keys), unless a hybrid type storm pulls it in with its circulation.
ok that was my once a season opposing view!
Troy 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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drier air ?.......... where the hell you living at NEVADA ?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Alot of drier air moving in behind Gustav too . It is just a pattern of a tropical system . I said so last Sunday .
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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we need hank frank !!! HAAAAAANK !!!! 
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