Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
looks like the convection is starting to boil once again on the IR SAT>
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
[color:blue] [/color] Look is that north end starting to wrap around? please, lets get a hot one in the Gulf!!!!!!!!!! :grin:
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
The Gulf is primed for a storm--the waters are verry warm!! Have to watch out for the dry air trying to intrude!!!
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02091119
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982002) ON 0020911 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020911 1800 020912 0600 020912 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.7N 87.1W 25.8N 87.0W 25.7N 87.5W
BAMM 25.7N 87.1W 25.9N 87.2W 25.9N 87.8W
A98E 25.7N 87.1W 25.5N 86.7W 25.6N 86.6W
LBAR 25.7N 87.1W 25.8N 86.8W 26.3N 86.8W
SHIP 5KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020913 0600 020913 1800 020914 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 88.2W 26.5N 88.9W 29.5N 88.4W
BAMM 25.9N 88.7W 26.4N 89.6W 28.7N 90.2W
A98E 26.3N 84.7W 27.2N 84.2W 28.7N 83.3W
LBAR 27.0N 86.8W 27.9N 86.4W 30.5N 84.2W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 59KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 39KTS
Models split on predictions... similar to LBAR... if I were a guessing man I choose more to the east of PC than west at this time...
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
000
URNT12 KNHC 120039
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0039Z
B. 26 DEG 21 MIN N
86 DEG 29 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 152 DEG 27 KT
G. 066 DEG 005 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 23 C/ 316 M
J. 24 C/ 320 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF985 01GGA INVEST OB 08
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 2309Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
models she p city land fall each new run move a little west watchs will go up were someone please gess
|
StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Seems to be starting to wrap. Could be an illusion. Shear doesn't look too bad, let's see if she can push away the dry air. I'm looking for Florida Big Bend area landfall, but it's too early to see a clear picture.
--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
TD appears to be stationary viewing the radar loop out of Tampa... Center is estimated to be south of Panama City and west of Sarasota. Not very impressive on the IR at the moment...
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
that looks good on rap around look north on w/v moist air coming south if it gets close there will be a good chance for it dry air gone on thursday
|
StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
There's some poor folks up north that are about to get walloped by the kind of storm they rarely see in those parts. Gustav won't have much time to weaken before landfall.
--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
<<<models she p city land fall each new run move a little west >>>
Not to be critical but if I translate your post correctly you have information from recent models that the TD will go more west... what models do you refer to?
<<<watchs will go up were someone please gess >>>
And I think this means you want someone to guess where the watches will be posted... if they are posted.
OK, I'll guess... why not, I'd say somewhere between Pensacola to Tampa Bay.... maybe even a little south of TB
Edited by Frank P (Thu Sep 12 2002 01:34 AM)
|
Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
|
|
My best guess watches will go up over big bend vicinity. Athough this may change tomorrow as we all know.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
My best guess is that the watches will go up somewhere!!!!
But,to be a little more specific id say,judging from satellite info.Tampa to Cedar key>
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Tampa to Apalach at the 11pm adv tonight...extended W to Destin tomorrow...
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
ROB H
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Clearwater, FL.
|
|
agree Frank P., storm does not look that impressive at the
moment, but things can change, even if the center does
go north all the convection is on the se side right now.
NHC says warnings may go up for NE FL. coast. i dont
think so. warnings should go up from cedar key to venice.
|
guestnickd
Unregistered
|
|
what are your initial thoughts on TD#9? future track and intensity please. any one else?
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Well, It's a touch early to tell...I'd say it doesn't make hurricane...not much room to work..
Track? Between Destin and Cedar Key is my best first guess...
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Still holding together rather well.
ED
URNT12 KNHC 120217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0217Z
B. 26 DEG 27 MIN N
86 DEG 30 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 170 DEG 31 KT
G. 125 DEG 043 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 23 C/ 334 M
J. 24 C/ 352 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF985 01GGA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 2309Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
|
troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
|
|
I am thinking more Big Bend than PCity. the two Bams which have a more westerly track have #9 moving NW not NE at the 9/12 0z run so you can discount those for now.
There is a front moving down. I would guess it would depend on how far south that front gets and when as to how much more to right it moves.
troy
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Well, you can really discount most of the track guidance at this point...it's too early, and too little sampling going on to get a really good handle on exact locations...steering flow will be weak and diffuse for the next 12 hrs or so, so it's a guessing game at this point.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
