HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
okay.. i was thinking a very weak system dragged across florida. model runs come in and all pretty much take it up this way.. wouldnt have guessed. synoptic environment should improve i think. as the longwave axis to the north passes by shear should lighten and reorient maybe to NWerly.. with a slow moving system shear isnt as much a big deal as subsidence.. it usually takes the two combined to make a kill. subsidence is all the way around the NW semicircle of the storm, but not coming on as heavy. the storm seems to be staking its ground, probably not lose that battle.
so anyway, i'm thinking sarasota-ish, and the official track, though nothing to put stock in.. is up to franklin county. put it in there, we get a bath here in tallahassee.
well, dont see it intensifying much in the near future, maybe weaken some overnight. later tomorrow maybe start to slowly deepen. the 50mph tropical storm intensity strikes me as reasonable.
anyhow other stuff.
gustav is passing cape breton island, still a hurricane. may still have tropical structure when it smashes into newfoundland tomorrow morning. nothing too out of the ordinary for those folks.. theyre used to getting rough maritime weather (often enough our fish spinners become their windstorms).
td7 remnants.. getting caught in the low level sw-erly flow. this should finally kill it.. one can only hope. currently sliding northward at 27.5/60.
waves: lead wave has a surface swirl... obscured by the shear jet going over, but sw of the convective burst is what appears to be a closed swirl in a broader high amplitude wave. it however is playing in the shear, and not going to develop unless it makes it to the big friendly subsidence bowl in the , where the shear is light. energetic wave, has to be monitored.
trailer wave is nearing 40w, still a broad tumbling low cloud swirl with spotty convection. still staying south.. might be trying something tomorrow or friday.
thats the basin. the fun never stops.
HF 0331z12september
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
The setup of Nine is similar to last seasons Gabreille. That would make the key tool for forcasating the WV sat. This morning it seems that nine is pulling itself together better than Gabby did, and the influence of the subsidence is lessening. The thinking on the track is that after the frontal trough passes through today the Atlantic High axis will steer this more north than east..this suggests that low level steering will be the dominant factor in the track,and that is highly unpredictable...the upper air visible on the WV also suggests a pulling north of the current environment. So the future track could be reliable. Last Seasons Gabreille was pushed quickly ene by the upper environment and I do not see the same thing happenning today so far to Nine.
Finally the early morning Sat pics. suggest it is pulling energy up from the southeast and is wrapping it around to the west...more moisture there this am than yesterday...this suggests intensification is ongoing...
Movement now...very slow drift to NE toward the Cedar Key area. EDS
--------------------
doug
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Lots of 9's today. TD #9 should eventually head toward Big Bend/ Panhandle as decent TS. has 92 knots*&$#%#*! Don't think so, but this will have a chance to intensify if it stays in the GOM longer (GFDL puts it not that far east of N. Orleans). Invest 99L looking good this morning at about 12N/42W moving west. Could get interesting down the road as models put it in the SE Bahamas (those that have it) but too early to speculate. Agree with Joe B. that this one has potential to make it across the pond, but there is a weakness in the ridge as it goes into the Bahamas that may let it go north> There I go ...speculating...way too early. Have a great Thursday! Cheers!! Steve H.
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
Looks very good this morning as convection has increased around the low pressure.Still is moving west and the islands should keep watching it because this one may develop as it closes in on the lesser antilles.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
WHXX01 KWBC 121205
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992002) ON 20020912 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020912 1200 020913 0000 020913 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 41.5W 11.2N 45.1W 11.6N 48.9W
BAMM 11.0N 41.5W 11.2N 45.2W 11.6N 49.2W
A98E 11.0N 41.5W 11.1N 45.4W 11.4N 49.2W
LBAR 11.0N 41.5W 11.3N 45.6W 11.6N 49.9W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020914 0000 020914 1200 020915 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 52.5W 13.0N 56.0W 15.6N 62.3W
BAMM 12.3N 53.0W 13.0N 56.8W 15.7N 63.7W
A98E 11.9N 52.6W 12.2N 55.6W 14.3N 61.2W
LBAR 11.9N 54.3W 12.1N 58.6W 13.1N 65.6W
SHIP 56KTS 68KTS 88KTS
DSHP 56KTS 68KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 41.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 36.4W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
If this system were a little further south, I might be woried of an Opal syle system. With the shear and proximity, TS or minimal Cat 1 seems pretty likely for landfall. With current movement, My thoughts are Appalachicola to Pensacola, right now.
--------------------
Jim
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
visibles have TD 9 drifting northwest(?). so those model runs taking the depression (or maybe its named now like it should be) up to the central gulf coast. moving against the grain instead of perpendicular to it.. so shear will never leave it alone. should get steadily lighter as it gets closer to the coast, though. tropical storm, pascagoula MS very late saturday is my best guess. most of the weather will probably hit the florida panhandle.
elsewhere.. invest 99L now. convection is mostly ahead of the broad surface low, system is still opting for the southern path. should start moving wnw into the upper SW flow ahead, probably get to the islands as as weak sheared system. middle of next week could be in a very threatening position in the western carib or maybe SW atlantic.
system at 22/52.. getting by the rough part of the with what is either a just barely closed low or vigorous surface trough. either going to turn north into the trough in the western atlantic or possibly brickwall until the ridge rebuilds. more likely it will turn.
former TD7.. yes, still a swirl with one thunderstorm near 29/60. like the last three, think today will be its last day of existence. a more dominant low in the trough will probably swallow it. if not, i predict that it will slowly crawl north into the atlantic for the rest of the month.
maybe H and I storms before the weekend is out. and a likely landfall somewhere between cape san blas and grand isle... of a weak system. hey, why not, another tropical storm.
HF 1431z12september
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
I agree with you HF on motion of TD9.
From what I can detect on the latest Vis loop, TD9 appears to be moving off to the north-northwest with the center fully exposed and devoid of any deep convection around it... Not sure if the center is going to wash out and another center reform off more to the southeast of existing center nearer the deep convection off to the east of present center (which is not uncommon in a developing system)... However, if this is an accurate motion of the system, and the center is not reforming, then I would think the watches or warnings would shift more to the west????
Frank P
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
TD9 has alot of dry, sinking air entrained into the circulation. It is trying to overcome this now.
I don't see this thing going any place any time soon. It appears to be sitting in the Eastern Gulf for now.
I think an upper low may be forming to the west of TD9. This will further impede the storm from intensifying, but should move it off to the northeast later tonite.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Good Observation. There was a vort heading off to the NNW, but it spun off and "washed" into the western side of the circulation. I believe it's still in it's formative stages but I believe the location is still valid more to the SE at 26.8N/86.2W. But it's shifting around so that too could change. It could sit in the GOM awhile longer than the is suggesting. The wave east of the islands is getting better organized , but it is also dealing with increased shear, which may inhibit it from developing as the SHIPS suggests, at least until the trough pulls out. Again the Numericals take it SSE of Puerto Rico in 72 hours (haven't looked at the shear maps) as an 88 knot hurricane. Don't think it will be that strong, but if the environment gets more favorable as the trough lifts out, it could be a hurricane by then. After that things get interesting. But let's watch the GOM. If TD#9 stays out there long enuf, she could get pushed ENE by the trough early next week. Otherwise heads NNE. Cheers!!
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
hey hank, i thought you said last night TD will make landfall near Sarasota? Change your mind?
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Clearly a hook to the west in the last few visible frames. Doesn't look like that particular circulation is carrying any weather with it though. Models had originally hinted a a N-NW track through the Gulf toward a rendevous in the AL/FL border area. I don't have a call on this one yet. Upper low moving across plains should drag a front through here sometime Monday. If eventual Hanna hasn't shunted off NE by then, it will. Btw, I'm keeping tabs on my battle with the experts. If Hanna hits the FL panhandle as I think it will:
1) My call that Bastardi's Boothville-Appy landfall was underdone is right;
2) Further proof that Dr. Gary Gray's premise that almost all storms this year would be aimed at the Outer Banks, NC yet miss to the east wil have been proven wrong (was an easy challenge for me).
3) My contention that CSU's revised forecast completely underdoes the entire rest of the season comes true.
4) My continued forecast of 13/8/3 continues its own washout, so who am I to talk. But hey, at least I'm on record for challenging experts with substance.
Should be a fun couple of days for the FL Peninsula. Enjoy the downpours!
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Well my final forcast now on TD 9 isnt much.Latest guidance shows the ridge building in fast over the Gulf and N florida pushing the TD w a bit near 5 mph. The trough will come down rapidly over the next 24-36 hours picking up the system and pushing it will the majority of the models near Mobile to Panama city. My original thinking was Cedar Key to Panama city. Due to the high building in alittle stronger then anticpated, the 40-75 mile jog WNW pushes wnw the landfall. Strength wise I do expect this to become a TS but still no more than 50 mph as earlier perdicted at land fall and still Friday night.As she turns N and Ne tomorrow, she could get above that strength prior to landfall. How strong she becomes tonight is the key. Other wise not much else to say about this. We will post warnings up at 5pm and most likly make this a TS later this evening. Outside of this TD 10 could be forming near 11N and 44 W moving w then WNW over next few days. A quick side note to TD9 if the west motion countinues this afternoon then warnings might not be posted to 11 and might be pushed more w to near NO. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter web page
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Exposed center is now heading SW. will it do a Loop-the-loop and come back from the SW into the convection?? Still think Hanna will form out of all this...somehow. But it argues that it will sit in the GOM longer. Cheers. Steve H.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Appears the model is on target. It is the only one to predict this little SW jog. It has a landfall around the Bay St. Louis MS area.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
the jog you see SW is just that. It should continue the turn s then se then begin the stall again then move NNE to NE later.
Anyways presurre went up a tad today but should drop later tonight. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
Based on movement and expected movement MS. doesn't seemly likely. Sill think Appalachacola area.
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
yeah i changed my mind. before recon found a tight 1001mb center last night i thought it was a weak system that was going to follow the flow to the east. now it's doing a cyclonic loop turning sw in the latest pics. so ive gone sarasota to pascagoula.. the track is right up the middle and probably best. hey man, whoever ya be, workin things out. models have been about as finicky as me on this, and thats pretty much what i have to go by. panhandle landfall would be fun here, helene back in 2000 got us out of school.. cause even though the center came in near navarre the heavy weather was here.
well, anyway... looks like an upper low is camping right on top of the storm.. enhancing outflow to the southeast but keeping the steering confused and the subsidence injection on.. but further north things improve. by the last 12hrs or so this thing is off the coast.. say late tomorrow if the timetable is right (too fast if anything) this thing could be deepening some. how fast, nobody knows. 50mph is safe but maybe a tad conservative.
99L... still kind of oblong. upper shear is ahead, but also diffluent and enhancing convection. this thing needs convection, so im betting it would favor organization. still a pretty broad, oblate circular surface turning.
NW of there.. both of the little ones. think an invest at least out of these.. bastardi says a tropical storm. have some doubts, but i can see the possibility.
W gulf (?) have been ignoring, but might be something spooky in the BOC with all the goings on.
HF 1742z12september
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
The AVN also has this little jog as well...doing a pretty good job with it so far...
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
MIDLEVEL LOW NEAR 26.4N AND 86.5W.td ROTATING IN AROUND IT.SCOTTSVB
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
