Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
But it might. I don't see a full circular motion, but it could happen. Might make a sideways script, lowercase "e"  though. Last few frames show the LLC moving slightly (ever-so) south of due west. It's got to hit the roadblock sooner or later and stall out and turn or make that previously described motion.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
The discussion earlier sugested the LLC wopuld do some erratic loops around the mid level...that may be what is going on...EDS.
--------------------
doug
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
i dont think a neat circular loop either.. something more like a lowercase greek sigma. center should slow and begin to stack on the southerly leg of its loop.. here's where the problems could begin. pressure is down around 1002 and flight level winds are back up.. probably a hanna at 5pm. as it slows coming out of its loop.. steering weakens again before the trough back to the west comes onto the scene.. probably going to deepen much faster than i first anticipated, due to it tracking with the weakening upper level winds as it comes back around. stronger i think, probably a hurricane at landfall. florida panhandle either late saturday or early sunday.
99L about the same in terms of organization.. might note that westerly shear at low latitudes ahead is very weak, much more so than it appears on satelite. so probably just helper shear, with the faster jet further north. so maybe not a struggling tropical storm but a growing one. do think the will rough it up once in the caribbean, at least a little.
td7 remnant merging in, but i can still see it. i will rejoice when it goes away. it will rain lollipops and donuts.
sharp wave/trough at 22/55.. moving wnw, trough to the north may pull out faster than it can recurve this.. so watch this one.. if the trough doesnt get it, east coast will.
hanna isidore.. josephine..? i wonder..
HF 1955z12september
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Where are you getting your pressure and flight level winds. Also, what is the general conversion rate for flight level to service winds?
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
http://weather.unisys.com/eta/4panel/eta_pres_4panel.html
Eta remains bullish on TX Coastal Development but I don't see it at this extreme. All 12Z runs (almost all of 'em) move Hanna much further west than has been speculated. Depending on the storm's direction at landfall (N / NNE / NE), I'll take my chances and go with a Biloix to Dauphin Island Landfall. This may yet be too far east, but it's a compromise. TD #9 is heading for 87.5 as I type, so the further west she goes, the further west she will be at landfall. In any event, I don't expect her center to in any way, shape or form affect LA so don't call it a wishcast!
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Here is the latest recon...
726
URNT12 KNHC 121820
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1820Z
B. 27 DEG 06 MIN N
87 DEG 37 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 143 DEG 49 NM
F. 219 DEG 41 KT
G. 135 DEG 101 NM
H. EXTRAP 1002 MB
I. 24 C/ 300 M
J. 26 C/ 314 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. .1/8 NM
P. AF963 0209A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 41 KT SE QUAD 1745Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
SFC CENTER 8NM EAST OF FL CENTER
In general, it is about a 10-15% reduction from FL to SFC winds.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
yeah, your basic vortex message. but theyre kinda iffy sources really.. with gustav they found 100kt flight level winds but never put it up to cat 2. its sort of discretionary.. they could decide to leave it a depression a while longer. i wouldnt. since they started using 'sondes in '97 theyve found that 10% is the normal conversion rate, but only times youll really see that is with a classic well formed hurricane, usually go conservative on weaker or awkward systems.
HF 2022z12september
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Thanks for the vortex message. I guess this shows us at tropical storm status. One question though....what does the sentence at the end stating surface center 8NM east of FL Center mean?????
|
caneman
Unregistered
|
|
Well, that should be just about a T.S. then. I can tell you one thing, this thing has a healthly LLC. IT must now be least 200-250 miles away from Tampa but it has been very breezy all day and not just in squalls. Breezy enouigh to make a fairly large flag stand at attention.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
this girl could blast off at anytime low levels look great just need storms help
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
It means the center surface fix is in a different position than that at flight level...in essence, the storm is leaning in the vertical.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Not completely stacked up. Not well organized??? If she stacks up vertically, how quickly could she intensify?
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
JK,
Where are you forcasting landfall for your viewers? Looks to me like a AL/FL border storm.
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
This morning, we were thinking Destin, but now I'm gonna reserve judgement until we see the N motion begin...I'm probably a little further east than you are thinking, but I can't fault you for that either...
Regardless of where the center goes, I think my viewing area is in for some heavy rain and some wind...
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
Well, its interesting...it's not vertically stacked, so that is not good, but the circulation is REALLY good looking...the primary thing we need for strengthening now is some convection to fire near the center...
Latest recon found SFC pressures down another millibar to 1001...
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
No doubt about that. I just hope we can get a little rain here in B'ham It has been very dry lately. I doubt it gets this far west at my latitude, but there's always hope.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
This is one well really have to watch--when they start this loop stuff--watch out!!!
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
How far east-Jason?
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
what do you mean lions said this thing will go north the west wind is coming east fast this thing will run north fast 36 hours or can it get left we will see
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
I think it will be east of the the FL/Al border, and west of Apalachicola...best guess? (and I reserve the right to revise...<grin>) Probably Ft Walton...not gonna diverge from the track too much because I think they are doing pretty good with it....however, if we don't see the N motion begin in the next 8 hours or so, that could change things a good bit...
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
