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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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MarkTropics
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3353 - Sun Sep 15 2002 05:06 PM

This report is not so unexpected. This system is not over yet by no means. It just needs time to reset itself and I believe it will over the next 12-24 hours. There is still enough spin in the midlevels and all it needs is to work down to the surface again. What I believe though is a reformation further north than it has been somewhere around 15-16 north tommorow. This reformation if it takes place would be a concern because the track would also change northward and put the Southeast U.S. at a greater risk than if it stayed further south. So where now? Pay close attention this one its not over yet!!

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3354 - Sun Sep 15 2002 05:08 PM

great news 130 winds in gulf this weekend will just be lots of fl sunshine great news

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3355 - Sun Sep 15 2002 05:13 PM

Visible Satellite loop shows a clear spin near 12n give or take a half degree. This is not through yet by any means. And think it may make a roaring comeback shortly.

On a side note way to go Bucs!


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3356 - Sun Sep 15 2002 05:15 PM

Last post was me.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3357 - Sun Sep 15 2002 05:17 PM

w/v looks like our bud dry air is near

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
TD#10
      #3358 - Sun Sep 15 2002 05:22 PM

To whomever it was that told me to go to bed last night because of my comment about the center relocating, is it o.k. for me to get out of bed now?

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ten plays dead
      #3359 - Sun Sep 15 2002 05:26 PM

hurricane graveyard claims another.. for now. this wasnt entirely unexpected.. question now is whether it does get its act back together tomorrow... past 72w. there is a favorable environment as it heads wnw into the western caribbean.. probably will reorganize. the delay placed on it from turning nw by the center opening is going to shift the consensus tracks further west, maybe over to the yucatan now. or possibly it will reform further north where the upper environment is supporting all of that convection..? same as before.. amplification over the states should still turn whatever is down there up.. unless it doesnt redevelop.
anyway, tomorrow we get a better idea whether ten is playing possum or really means to cease being a bother.
HF 2119z15september


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3360 - Sun Sep 15 2002 05:27 PM

get up shawn man you slep all day what is this thing doing

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: ten plays dead
      #3361 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:09 PM

Well, I was wrong thinking that TD10 would have at least another advisory...it is now an open wave but probably not for long. It would be beyond me as to why something like this wouldn't re-develop in conidtions that are as favorable as this one has. Some type of interfence with air flow caused the opening of the low. We have a vigorous wave for now and I expect this one to re-develop in the next couple of days. This one could still get strong eventually as long as it reforms. Probably a true Western Caribbean system now. I also agree with HF on the basis that any developed system will probably be picked up by next amplification.

Enough for now...we'll see how it looks tomorrow.



Go Bucs...25-0 over the Ravens!

Kevin


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3362 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:10 PM

I see the low level center get this it is att 14.26n 69.04w
im going to try and upload an image

[image]C:\Documents and Settings\NEWBIGIN\Desktop\1.jpg[/image]


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3363 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:14 PM

well ne wayz the picture wouldnt load but its there go look for your self. Only in the last few images is it there and you can follow the little feeder bands all the way out so now that its getting back to gethor and so much further north what does this mean for the US. I doubt being that far north that it a yucatun issue.

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3364 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:17 PM

I agree, the center does look like it has reformed right around 12. There is a definite spin there. Who wants to call them and tell them?
Oh by the way like I said earlier GO BUCS GO!!!!
TONI

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3365 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:17 PM

ALthough quite shabby, I belieeve that just as the recon is leaving the center (LCC) is getting re-established. Believe it will close off again by 11PM but it won't be updated til the recon goes back. Timing is everything. Also of note is a burst of convetion around the NW side of the center. This ain't over yet...We've only just begun....Cheers!! Steve H.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
reformation
      #3366 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:23 PM

I am just posting this again becuse it was at the end of page 2 and i dont want people to be looking in the wrong spot. Yes i see the dying swirl to that is at 12 n that was TD#10 but the new center is as clear as day at 14.26n 69.04w moving nw at 20

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Excellent Analysis!
      #3367 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:31 PM

Nice job Robert!!! I've been tracking the center all day on NASA close-up imagery. The LLC is still very well defined and at 21Z was located at 14.3N 69.2W moving on a heading of about 285. It will probably be difficult to follow the center during the night on IR but it should be easy to pick it up again in the morning. The initial fix yesterday was pretty good, but after that, the center was 'lost' under a high cloud shield - TD 10 has been moving rather steadily to the west northwest for the past 24 hours - the recon was just sent to the wrong location - it happens sometimes with formative systems.
Cheers,
ED


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3368 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:38 PM

Kudos Robert, it IS there. Let's watch it. Some of the models are confused about this whole thing. Think the NOGAPS may actually have a handle on the location. Intensity is another issue. Cheers!! Steve H.

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Excellent Analysis!
      #3369 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:41 PM

You're right about that Ed! There has been many, many times in the past where recon is sent out to the wrong location. When they were in TD10 two things may have occured:
1. The new center was developing and they didn't go to that area to investigate it.
2. The old center was very small and they didn't catch it.

The system still looks way too good to be dead...I'm expecting re-development. Pretty sure the NHC is very uncertain right now, but in any event, they seem to be leaning towards regeneration. This one still has the making of a big storm as long as long as it regenerates and slows down some. What is everybody thinking about intensity if it reforms? I'd say a 75-80 knot cane moving through eastern portion of Yucatan Channel sometime Friday. Let's see what NHC does with this one.
Kevin


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Excellent Analysis!
      #3370 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:48 PM

Again GOOD JOB ROBERT, so what is the spin that I am seeing around 12? Is that what was left of the old center?

Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
??
      #3371 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:53 PM

guys.. not saying i dont buy it.. but i sure as heck cant see it. of course i cant get any really good closeups.. got any sites i can go investigate and find what youre talking about?
yeah.. if there is a new LLC up there then this is a whole different story. but i have to see to believe.
HF 2248z15september


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3372 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:57 PM

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html

looks as if it is just over 70W.

troy


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