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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Steve H.
      #3474 - Mon Sep 16 2002 03:44 PM

You're SO correct when you say we must keep a close eye on this feature. Just like the poster before me said, this is on the verge of a TS, not a TD. The winds are really strong enough to support a TS but the structural organization of the circulation isn't *quite* there yet. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see all hell breaking loose when I check on this thing tomorrow afternoon when I get home. I love these situations!
Kevin


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: side note
      #3475 - Mon Sep 16 2002 04:05 PM

Actuallly Kevin, I believe it just closed off (viewing from vis images) at about17.2N/73.2W. You can see the little nipple right in that center, and the banding is twirling now. Stay tuned!! Cheers

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Possible close-off and latest GFDL run (armageddon, as always)
      #3476 - Mon Sep 16 2002 04:19 PM

I was just watching the Tropical Update on TWC and they showed the visible and I think I know what you mean. On the last frame I saw a small curl occur on the SW side of the system. The question of "Did it just close off?" popped up in my mind. You may well be right.

Also, Steve, the GFDL continues to put fear in us Floridians. The latest run shows a strong category 3 making a beeline for us from the south! I'm not putting much faith in this model or any other at this point though. But given the fact an anticyclone will build in tomorrow we may just see this type of intensification. Hey, one of these days the GFDL is bound to verify correctly on track and intensity for a storm.


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: Possible close-off and latest GFDL run (armageddon, as always)
      #3477 - Mon Sep 16 2002 04:25 PM

Well no TD OR TS? Recon maybe having a hard time finding center but on close up visibles of this area it appears to me correct me if I am wrong that there appears to be center. Convection looks very impressive. Also looks to be good outflow with this system. Models pointing at FL landfall and think this is looking likey. GFDL CAT 3? Not sure about this but environment looks very promising for explosive development!

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: side note
      #3478 - Mon Sep 16 2002 04:39 PM

its looking better and better, feeder bands are coming into it, i think there will be rapid intensification, the water temps there are high 80's light winds, a major hurricane on our hands down the road. its also slowing its forward speed.look out...................

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tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: The Keys
      #3479 - Mon Sep 16 2002 05:01 PM

I'm a little surprised when considering the location and potential of #10 that I've heard no advisories telling people to at least keep an eye on this system. The Florida Keys have only one way in and one way out. With some models pointing in that general direction I would think somebody would want to get this information out to the public fairly soon as to not create a panic and massive traffic jam with a next to the last minute warning. Tom

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Jeanine
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
Re:5pm weather
      #3480 - Mon Sep 16 2002 05:15 PM

Our local met Don Noe (not sure if I spelled it correctly) has talked about the Tropical Wave here in SoFlo and urges everyone to keep an eye on it. So at least thats a start, I have friends in the Keys who evacuate and come up here when there is a storm and they tell me its not fun. I guess we will know more by tommorow.
Just for info, I checked the weather in Kingston, Jamaica and as of 4:00pm EDT, they have wind from the SE at 29mph and the pressure is 29.74 and falling.


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re:5pm weather
      #3481 - Mon Sep 16 2002 05:23 PM

boy i sure would like to no where the center is???

I saw what evryone was talkign about earlyer with the center that popped out but its not visible any more and looks like there is some wrapping going on around the area i thought center might be early'r further east under the convection but that could just be upper level stuff.Its really starting to concern me the way things look it can do what ever it wants in the carrib but in the end some area in florida is gonna get impacted.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: side note
      #3482 - Mon Sep 16 2002 05:34 PM

conditions are going to favor rapid intensification.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
LOCAL REPORT
      #3483 - Mon Sep 16 2002 05:34 PM

Local Mets now talking about reviewing your hurricane plans and getting ready for what could be a significant storm. Also mentioning that some type of watches could go up for the Keys or South Florida as early as tomorrow. Looks like we will get some rain and wind no matter what. Ground is already quite saturated in SE Florida. Things are going to get exciting pretty soon.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: LOCAL REPORT
      #3484 - Mon Sep 16 2002 05:41 PM

Our local mets haven't said much at all, but it is interesting to note that all of the weather reports started later than normal. I'll see what they say on the next two broadcasts. If that's not enough, NWS Melbourne has already put breezy into their forecast zones for Fri. and Sat. Melbourne is usually pretty conservative with these things...the threat must be pretty real late this week. Tomorrow will be very interesting. In any event...if this thing is classfied tomorrow I'll be ready to jump on the boat that says Florida is going to get a very significant hurricane this weekend.

Kevin


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: side note
      #3485 - Mon Sep 16 2002 05:46 PM

Sure looks like So Florida will be spared again. ECTWC is predicting near Miami hit, the last post mentioned local tv mets beginning their scare tactics and no tropical outlook from Bastardi today making me suspect he is beginning to lack confidence in the Florida hit .But it sure is fun watching the hype.Oh I forgot to mention the models that show only one of 5 paths hitting Florida.The main fear I have will arise from the inability to access all these weather sites if a storm does come close .Dave -Stuart

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greg-kfdmtv
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Beaumont, Texas
Possible LLC
      #3486 - Mon Sep 16 2002 05:55 PM

Looking at the latest high-res visible pictures, it appears that the LLC is near 15.4 north and 75.9 west....on the southwestern edge of the deep convection.

Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist KFDM-TV
Beaumont, Texas


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
irritation
      #3487 - Mon Sep 16 2002 06:04 PM

well, when i said i could see stratus inflow suggesting a low level center on the western edge, recon still hadnt checked that part of the storm, and they only gave one more obs before running home. very annoying. now the center is leading the convection, exposed.. under outflow clouds building back over it from the east.. but you can see it. go look at the NHC visible floater, they finally decided to retask it and stop staring at the fair skies over alabama. shows up on nasa satelite page as well (third or fourth link at the bottom of the NHC imagery page).
my ideas are less cut and dry at this point. the center is running ahead naked just a hair above 15n at 76w. moving due west as well. this is typical tropical system behavior. the visible LLC is inside of an inflow envelope which is feeding back into the main convection to the west.. so basically it is supporting convection for fifty miles away but not for itself. no further organization until the center redevelops back east or starts generating a convective core.
night is falling and tracking the low level feature will be quite difficult. all i can look for is convection building west of the current mass.
basically there are three possiblities:
1)system finally builds a convective core, begins turning up and threatens
2)system keeps jumping ahead of the convection, shooting itself in the foot, never deepens, hits central america after days of goofing around
3)system commits suicide by running ahead too far
someone earlier mentioned that since this system is a threat to florida if it develops along expected lines, we can be sure that it wont (steve h?) i have to echo that sentiment.. year after year we watch what by historical inference should come pound florida, keep it on its usual strike pace.. recurve early or just keep charging westward to belize or the yucatan. all bets are off until this system gets its act together.
other note.. surprised no invest on the 33/51 system. its sort of in 'duh, im developing' mode.
HF 2157z16september


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: irritation
      #3488 - Mon Sep 16 2002 06:24 PM

HF, I agree it was there on the southwest side all along. I never could understand why they never checked that area. Looks to me to be about 15.5/76.0 moving west.

Since Sept 11 of last year they don't say on the recon pod where the flight is begining from, but it is likely this one came from Antigua and was going back to Biloxi so basically they were just flying through on the way home.



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tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: LOCAL REPORT
      #3489 - Mon Sep 16 2002 06:35 PM

TWC finally made a statement for south florida and the keys to monitor this storm very closely. Also said at looking at the latest pics that it may be at storm strength now.

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Bastardi
      #3490 - Mon Sep 16 2002 06:37 PM

Bastardi gave his outlook it just said friday on the header, but it was todays. His forcast said scraping the florida east coast. and that conditions will be very favorable for what could be an intense hurricane

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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: LOCAL REPORT
      #3491 - Mon Sep 16 2002 06:38 PM

Robert
Was that his written report of the video report?
thanks
Troy


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: LOCAL REPORT
      #3492 - Mon Sep 16 2002 06:42 PM

video it just sais fridays but all info is todays and even sat photo's

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3493 - Mon Sep 16 2002 06:46 PM

Can anyone tell me if there is a chance this storm could hit the panhandle? Everyone I have heard is talking about Flordia being the target but nobody is saying any specific place. I think everyone from New Orleans to Key West need to watch the storm. I dont think it will hit the east coast though. I would like to hear other peoples comments on where u would think the storm will head. Thanks

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