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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3310 - Sat Sep 14 2002 09:26 PM

As Hannah makes landfall as a weak tropical storm (but with lots of rain), Tropical Depression Ten forms in the very Southeastern Caribbean.

We may have to watch this one toward the end of the week (Friday or so) as it may near us in Florida. If it survives nipping South America it'll enter into a fairly favorable area to develop and move across the caribbean and eventually into the Atlantic. Lots could happen between now and then, but it's a fairly interesting system as for possibilities. It could even slide into the gulf. In fact the latest GFDL shows this, but right now it could go either way. If it survives the initial bump, I think we may have our first candidate to try to make a run for major hurricane status for the season. Let's hope not.



All eyes may want to be on this during the week, and we'll be tracking it.

Caribbean Hurricane Page - includes reports from individuals scattered across the Caribbean islands

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3312 - Sat Sep 14 2002 10:49 PM

IMO, the center of TD#10 is going to reform to the north of where they have the center now. If that is the case than it should be more of an eastern U.S. problem than gulf coast one. That is just what I see at this point.

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3313 - Sat Sep 14 2002 11:24 PM

It's according how far north it is re located if that does indeed happen. I believe it would have to climb at least to around 15 in order to have to much of a northerly influence.At this point it is to far south. But the way this season has been not much would suprise me.
Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Reformation
      #3314 - Sat Sep 14 2002 11:28 PM

Its an interesting thought if the center reforms wich is very well likely given the mountains. Then things have a real good chance of turning ugly for the southeast if it truggles with what it has now though then its a gulf storm for sure.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Reformation
      #3315 - Sun Sep 15 2002 12:01 AM

shawn go to bed!!

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Easy Does It
      #3317 - Sun Sep 15 2002 12:20 AM

If you disagree with the logic of someone's post, please stay 'on-topic' and tell us your opinion.
Thanks,
ED


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Easy Does It
      #3318 - Sun Sep 15 2002 01:10 AM

i get the feeling TD 10's center is dead. think about it: weak 25kt center racing forward at 20kt hits a narrow strip of land.. splat. as for it skimming the venezuela coast.. forget that. believe it or not water temps at the immediate coast are below support threshold, due to localized upwelling. so the upper environment is nice.. but the low level system is wrecked.
some of you have already proposed that the center may reform north, out over the caribbean closer to the convection. best option for keeping the system active... dont see this thing doing much right along the venezuela coast.
i do think this thing will reorganize by the time it is in the western caribbean. as model runs have consistently adjusted west i'm tempted to say it will crash into central america, but upstream the globals have a very sharp amplification in the central u.s... that draws whatever is there northward, unless it is just pathetically disorganized. so.. somewhat possible that late next week a tropical system will be near cuba, and near florida for the weekend.
before anything happens though this system has to produce a low level center in a place where it can grow, not drag it into venezuela. when we get something viable to track, then there can be some real forecasting, as opposed to wishcasting and guesscasting.
hanna.. moving more eastward than northward. not expecting it to survive its crossing of the southeast, but going to put down plenty more rain on the coastal plain and piedmont.. where it is needed.
central atlantic wave.. turning up into a sharp upper trough. upstream feature from the ridging over the eastern caribbean. might still sputter and try to develop, but off the westward track for now.
nothing else looking like it wants to develop.
anon, ive been watching you. dont see that you have anything but snide critical remarks, so perhaps you should keep your wit to yourself.. no one else is impressed by it. if you care to really join the board and communicate useful ideas, show that you have some forecasting balls.. fine.. but otherwise take a hike. useful criticism is structured, assertive, and credible... not cowardly and cheap.
HF 0505z15september


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Anonymous
Unregistered




With the tropics more or less dead for tonight, let me be the first...
      #3319 - Sun Sep 15 2002 02:18 AM

to congratulate the Saints on their upcoming win against the Pack tomorrow. The Bucs were easy, so too will be the Packers.

HF, you guys have any decent hurricane parties today?

Steve


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Tony
Unregistered




Model Map
      #3320 - Sun Sep 15 2002 02:51 AM

Here is a link showing graphics for many models for TD 10:

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: With the tropics more or less dead for tonight, let me be the first...
      #3321 - Sun Sep 15 2002 06:39 AM

Ok Steve, don't get me all goin over that Bucs comment! Like I said before, I have big shoulders but the Saints was sweating it there at last and yea I have to say the Bucs just handed them the win . I have to say I will take the Saints over the Pac but don't get to fisty ok. In the mean time GO BUCS GO!!!!!!

Back to the tropics the models are still supporting a system close to the SW Cuba area and S. Fl. if this system does start to pull itself together, then we just may have a real problem on our hands. GO BUCS GOooooooo.......

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
TD #10
      #3322 - Sun Sep 15 2002 08:01 AM

Our local TV met. said this morning, "TD Isidore will likely effect our weather in S. Fl. Thurs/Fri and the models have it as a hurricane just south of us with winds between 85-120 mph". All of this may come to be true, but already predicting such lousy weather here is a bit premature. He also insists on calling it TD Isidore, sorry but it doesn't have a name yet! He even showed his own 5-6 day forecast track that brings it over western Cuba and then curves it sharply northeastward into the SW Florida coast. How can you show this to people????? According to past history, storms with this intensity, at this time of year, in this location, have ALWAYS gone into C.America or Mexico, never towards the US. We shall see soon. By the way, GO DOLPHINS!! The original Florida football team and only one at 1-0.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: TD #10
      #3323 - Sun Sep 15 2002 08:21 AM

Sorry about your Dolphis but they'll fold up like a tent towards the end of the season as usual. GO BUCS.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3324 - Sun Sep 15 2002 08:23 AM

good chance it will become a major hurricane 120+

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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: TD #10
      #3325 - Sun Sep 15 2002 08:23 AM

well i dont no what to tell you, it looks crappy id bet on the part of it n of purto rico to get going if i didnt no it was down by s america.

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: TD #10
      #3326 - Sun Sep 15 2002 09:06 AM

Well it sounds like to me that this local Met that you are talking about may be a little early in his forcast predicting a landfall. I mean we don't even have a TS as of yet, however I do believe we have the potiental here for our 1st major Hurricane. But I do want to add this, I have noticed a lot of our Mets in my local area has a tendency to down play a system to the opposite extreme and make the type of statements that would make the general public feel like there is nothing to worry about( I'm not talking about any particular storm just any storm in general
and then when a storm threatens the area I have heard many people say that the Met said for us not to worry about it and now its sitting on our door step, last time I will listen to him. So the point I am trying to make is that I believe our local Mets should just give a heads up but not to the extreme to panic anyone , play it down the middle and inform the public and when there is a serious situation for sure then get there attention. I guess the call is tuff, but someone has to do it. Over all our local Mets do a great job when we are under a warning.
Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Tropical Depression 10 Forms Near Venezuela
      #3327 - Sun Sep 15 2002 09:48 AM

well if that local Met went by the Miami NWS marine forecas you could see why he may have made that forecast--here is an excerpt-
MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY... WITH WIND GRADUALLY BACKING AROUND TO NORTHEAST AND
FINALLY MOSTLY NORTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. T.D. 10 IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST FOR 24 TO
48 HOURS THEN TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND LIE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA BY TUESDAY EVENING. NHC IS FORECASTING IT TO
STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AND FINALLY TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY... AND PROBABLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AFTER THAT. ANYONE PLANNING PLEASURE
BOATING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS... OR TAKING A CRUISE SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO
SOUTH FLORIDA IT EVENTUALLY PASSES... WE COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING
THE WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.



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Jeanine
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
Re: TD #10/Robert
      #3328 - Sun Sep 15 2002 09:58 AM

NOGAPS actually, briefly, develops a low pressure area @72hrs to the north of TD #10 (where all of the convection is) and simutaneously has #10 located just south of central cuba. Interesting.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: TD #10/Robert
      #3329 - Sun Sep 15 2002 10:21 AM

GFDL has been relatively successful on two storms this season (there may be others but these two come to mind first) It was forecasting Edouard to back track SW, cross FL and then impact the northern GC several days before this actually came to fruition... it was WAY off on intensity, but it's forecast path was right on...

Regarding Hanna, GFDL was the one model that insisted on a more westernly component, taking the storm near the mouth of the MS river and east of NO... although not perfect, it's performance was better than most others 48 hours out..

I am not a believer in models per se, but when they start showing some accuracy, like the GFDL has recently, it certainly gives them a little more respectability than what I have given them in the past...

What would be really great if the models were rated on their performance... maybe someone is doing this, I really have not seen the data... however, it would be great to be able to review the data to see which models have performed the best over a given forcast range, and period of time... like how the stocks perform... of course this wouldn't tell you if the model would be accurate on its next storm, but at least you'd have a track record for it performance...

my opinion/guess on TD10 is that it will probably survive the brush with SA, the center will not relocate, and the system will continue to head for the central caribbean... whether this is a CA storm, a GOM storm or a FL storm remains to be seen.


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: TD #10/Robert
      #3330 - Sun Sep 15 2002 10:33 AM

Well models shifting west. None of the models turn this NW/N like some did yesterday. In any event NHC sounds concerned about this one. For now my money is on the AVN which has been preforming fairly well lately. Although this could change. I'am not going to say a direct FL impact but NWS Tampa already talking up wording in extended forecast with numerous showers and storms. Will just have to wait and see. But it appears center is over water again. GO BUCS!!!!!

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mp3reed
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Abilene, Texas USA
Re: Easy Does It
      #3331 - Sun Sep 15 2002 10:40 AM

Interesting Point, Hank.

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