Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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where does the models put the storm now? Central GOM?
Southern
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I wouldn't trust the models until they get a little more data to ingest. 12Z may have some but might have to wait for the next runs at 0Z for something worthwhile.
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Jim
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Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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This is from the NWS in Melbourne:
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN
THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SO THE HURRICANE
CENTER WILL RESTART ADVISORIES ON T.D. #10 AT 11 AM. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED
CONSIDERABLY. BY PUTTING MORE DISTANCE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THE UPPER
LOW TO ITS WEST (SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY)...THE T.D. IS
EXPERIENCING LESS UPPER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO STRENGTHEN
FURTHER. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER
LATER THIS WEEK.
It will probably 2 more model runs before we can expect any type of accuracy.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Looking at 's initial forecast, I find myself hoping it does not verify. 72 hours brings a minor Hurricane to the tip of Cuba but free to continue strenghting and seting up a turn back into the West Florida Coast down the line. Possible Cat 2 or 3 if the 72 hour positions verifies. Best case for Florida appears to be a light TS getting caught up on Yucatan or crossing the worst part of Cuba. If it shoots the gap, Florida could have big problems.
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Jim
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Marktropic
Unregistered
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Well TD# 10 developes a bit more south than I thought last night. This does change things a bit but in what direction its unsure. The path forcasted should be a bit west of the previous one so western Cuba or eastern Yucatan is a possibility. Latest satellite pictures do show a LLCC with developing thundestorms on its east and north side. By 5pm I do expect T.S. Isidore. So where next? Read this and it will help:
BOTH THE AVN AND CANADIAN MODELS HINT AT
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CENTER ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNDERNEATH
THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER-ENVIRONMENT. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY.
THE AND WANT TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...RESPECTIVELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A SOFTER NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN AN ATTEMPT TO BE MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE 500 MB AVN AND UKMET LARGE SCALE FORECAST
FIELDS. PERHAPS COINCIDENTALLY...THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE BAM AND LBAR MODELS.
So I believe the forcast track will change over the next 24 hours to the east and how far will have towait. As for TD#10 moving west I don't think it is its moving w-nw but very slow and thats another problem so read this:
BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEW...THE INITIAL MOTION IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 270/8...PERHAPS LESS.
So we will wait and see at 5pm when new more reliable information is out until we get down to exact track.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hey Folks, I believe the intensity forecast is off. That is, I believe (if the shear continues to lessen) this thing is ready to explode. Latest sat images show the area of convection to it's east getting wrapped into the circulation and boundary layers setting up in a big circle. It is also going to be over water further west than was anticipated earlier with no land interaction for 72 hours at least. I see a Major cane outta this. Alright enuf hyping, but this really needs to be taken seriously since the forecast track is for western Cuba at 72 hours, and someone after that. I see nothing ahead of this (albeit some light shear for 24 hours) for the next 3-4 days to inhibit development until the trough approaches. Now is the time to get prepared. Cheers!! Steve H.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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hey everybody!! im tropical storm isidore. but i should be called invisidore, because im sitting in the middle of the atlantic in broad daylight and the thinks im a non-tropical low!
translation: two active systems at 5pm.
btw, hurricane tomorrow west of jamaica.
HF 1612z17september
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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There is a lot less dry air ahead as well. More moisture to feed more storms to help lower the pressure. The convection needs to build consitantly. By that I mean steady buildning, not just burst here and there, in order for the pressures to drop. The slowing down should help keep it away from the shear ahead and allow for more of that convection to build on the west side. As for where. I am sooo bad at guesstimating that. I try and look at projected path, and then se what lies ahead on the wetaher maps past the projection dates.
This has me thinking that even with its more west biased projection currently, if that holds true, we can still see a FL landfall. The trough should turn it and stir it more n the nnne/ne. Dependng on how sharp and fast the trough pulls her/it will have an impact on the strength. But being a more westward storm there will be less impact form Cuba (what little there would have been from W Cuba which has lower elevations).
so i say if it gets picked up and little shear from the trough, he have landfall at West Coast->state->E Coastanywhere from (Brevard up through St Johns) on sat- sun as a cat 2. if the trough speeds it up like mad(similar to mitch) cat 1 same local on west coast ---> maybe more north ( just Brevard / Voulsuia) on E coast sat night.
wow my first 5-7 day outlook.(I reserve my right to change it 3 hours before landfall) 
In reference to a few season ago on here and some commentary If send Jim Cantorie(sp?) to your area, it will hit there! 
That guy is always in the worst of it.
Edited by troy2 (Tue Sep 17 2002 01:01 PM)
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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HF
it would be named Hurricane Sneak Attack!!
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Mary
Unregistered
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Invisidore has been denied an immigration visa. Therefore it is a non entity and shall not be allowed the rights and privileges of a U.S. born Hurricane such as Allison, Edourd, Hanna etc.Despite the statistical likelyhood that this Invisidore could and would make a perfect hurricane representative,, its status remains in question due to questions about the circle it hangs in/or around. It has been said that Invisidore has trouble making ends meet and that its behaviors have been a little off center and out of the mainstream. However, it appears to have had some time out to think about its aberrant behaviors and appears to be trying to conform to social norms of other hurricanes and or storms. Tune in to see if Invisidore can get a life, will it grow up to be famous and have a retirement party or will it be reduced to nothing once again and invisible. 
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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In reply to:
and that its behaviors have been a little off center and out of the mainstream.
a storm after Ben Franklins heart
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Mary--
so good to have you back!
IHS,
Bill
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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General Conditions of TD is fairly weak. We have recon giving back reports of a still weak 1009mb pressure. No winds right now are as strong as yesterday. Does that mean the system is weaker? Infact NO of course not. Yesterday the system was crusing along near 20K and with the T-storms on its NE side of 20-30mph it relivates to a tropical storm force winds. But overall the structure is alittle better due to the slowing down of the system as it loses the strong driving ridge to its N. Now the mets been talkiing about the T-Storms creating there own enviroment decreasing the sheer. Where did they learn that from? I cant believe they are tell you guys that. Only the most strongest Hurricanes with pressures under 925mb or so will create a strong enough upper flow, and there still is sheer though not as strong in TD10 right now. The only reason there is not as much is due to the TS losing the speed of the ridge while the upper low to its NW continues to the W.
Forcast remains the same. With a weaker system a west movement will happen with the low level flow. When the system gets better organized with pressures around 1005mb or so it will get pulled by the mid level flow which is out of the ESE causing a WNW movement. Currently the system is getting better though Im not sure if it will be upgraded to a TS by 5pm. Waiting on another recon. My forcast is still on track as post sw of Jamaica later today and tonight to near G cayman island on weds. My cross over was near 81 W and will be adjusted slightly W. I dont expect much of a W track into the Yucitan though it might get close if the system doesnt intensify early on it the forcast period. Finally be off the Sw coast of Florida on early Friday as a strong cat 1 or 2. We are all up in the air on intensity. Track is pretty well on, but we have time to see what happens to U.S landfall over the next 48-72 hours to pinpoint. scottsvb HURRICANEUPDATECENTER
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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So Scott, am I correct in my assunption that you see landfall in SW Florida? Steve H.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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RE: what HF mentioned out in the Atlantic
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA IS DEVELOPING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. FOR
THE TIME BEING...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Right now any landfall can happen
It matters on the Strength,trough, weakness
and other factors. Currently Im forcasting Miami-
north of Tampa. scottsvb
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Just had a quick look at CI Numbers for both TD Ten and the system in the Atlantic east of Bermuda. The numbers were put out at 1145UTC today, so they are a few hours old...
TD Ten 1.5 / 1.5
90 (System E of Bermuda) 2.0 / 2.0
The url for this data is HERE
Just thought it was interesting to note that the unclassified and much better appearing storm is also stronger than TD Ten. Expect it to be classified today, and possibly be at TS strength within the next 12 hours or so.
Rich B
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Marktropic
Unregistered
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I see T.D. 10 reaching T.S. strength at 5pm. Mainly due to the building storms near the center. It will shift to w-nw later today and nw late tommorow. Stength is the big question. I would like to see more development on the west side later today for a better feeling on where it will end up. The stronger it gets the better the chance of a Florida problem. The weaker it remains a more north gulf problem. No matter someone around the Gulf is going to have a busy weekend.
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Marktropic
Unregistered
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I just had a chance to look at visible satellite as of 20min ago and thunderstoms are building nw of the center which is starting to look like banding also a feeder band comming in from the sw. I see develpment and if this continues Isiodore will be born at 5. I would like to see the pressure over the next few hours fall but I have to go to work so I'll be back at 10:30pm.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Rich are they saying it has moved north? Is that correct??
Edited by andy1tom (Tue Sep 17 2002 01:41 PM)
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