HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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im not ballsy enough to say who gets this one just yet. will be ready to when its up near the western end of cuba late this week. going to be a big ticket item for somebody.
basically the situation is this: missed the first shortwave that models originally had turning it up east of florida. thats old garbage now. consensus track is western cuba, where i'd sort of had my heart set.. but it isnt there yet. bigger amplification sets up in the middle of the country by late in the week, dragging a front down to the western gulf by the weekend. this is the one that i *THINK* will draw it up somewhere along the eastern gulf coast.. fort walton to fort myers.. somewhere in there, over the weekend or maybe early next week it takes its time. if, however, it misses this trough too.. doesnt get far enough north to be drawn up.. it wobbles westward again and makes a run for the middle gulf coast early/middle of next week.
this will probably be a mature hurricane when it comes ashore. potentially going to get very bad late this week/weekend. not trying to scare monger, just calling it how i see it.
btw, i read the outlook earlier troy, about the central atlantic invest.. sort of poking fun at their cautious approach, thats a 40-50mph tropical storm if i've ever seen one.
HF 1738z17september
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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1145 UTC would be around 6:45am Eastern, I think..may be off an hour there.
If so those numbers are a little old.
actually i checked during daylight savings its minus 4 hours...during good ole eastern its minus 5..
so it was at 7:45 am
Edited by troy2 (Tue Sep 17 2002 01:55 PM)
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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I agree Hank. Well at least agree that its a nicely formed storm. Not schooled enough to tell its wind speed.
You know what they say about watching a poy boil. Look what happened when all eyes were on Jamaica mon.
thats why I dubbed it "Hurricane Sneak Attack"
Edited by troy2 (Tue Sep 17 2002 01:50 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I'm gonna shut up for awhile and watch. Latest pix show the little LLC dribbling out of the west side away from the convection, and maybe the center redeveloping to the NE of the old position. Anyone else see this?? In that case we have an open wave again. Tell me I'm wrong again!! Scott Miami - north of Tampa??? north like to tallahassee, or just north of Tampa?? Cheers!! Steve H.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I would imagine that the residents in Jamaica are more than a little nervous......looking at TD 10, although its pressures are somewhat high and the winds are not that strong (yet) it does not appear that it is in a huge hurry to go anywhere. Looking at the latest realtime loops, the storm is 2x the size of Jamaica. For one thing, I believe that we've only gotten one? recon report that I've seen anyway, so I think we need to wait for a couple of more before we can say anything and the models are not set in stone right now as they will need more info to get a more reliable track/intensity thing going.
The very fact that the NWS in Melbourne is saying that it may affect their weather by the weekend tells ME that they believe this storm will have an impact on FL; whether or not it's a direct landfall hit or just the outer bands is still to be seen. You never really see them talk about a system that's so far out this early in the week. Which, of course, makes you wonder what they know and what we don't. I think we can safely assume that there is a valid reason why they think it will affect their weather. That being said, I would assume that the SHEAR will lessen (as they have been saying) and this storm has a real chance of exploding on us like Opal. We just never know and we should not try and predict the future (or the past, for that matter) based on one or two loops or recon reports.
Your eyes are your best storytellers....rely on your gut instincts and not some ridiculous "I told you this and I told you that" BS and come to your own conclusions.
And, no, I am NOT a meteorologist, but I did (really) stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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excellent posts...pleasure to sit back and read them and watch the satellites...
I am no expert, but I sure can see a nice rotation, and believe this is tropical storm status NOW....additionally, I think too it will be a hurricane quickly after that...and depending on the maturation rate, I agree it's track is still open for review. None of us can know where this will go, but my feelings are that it will hang west....nothing to change it's course....remember...an object in motion tends to stay in motion....so here's my VERY NOVICE prediction...but since they are sooo unpredictable...its as good as any other...
isidore or Josephine...depending on timing and all...(the one in the caribbean....) will slick west of the tip of Cuba, and into the Gulf...as a category 3-4....
then....the insurance companies...and ALL EYES...will be watching this one...
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah well i keep getting ahead of myself. in some ways not much has changed from yesterday. the low level center is not under that western bulge of convection like i first guessed.. it is west of that. not moving quickly, but magically the convection is sitting in place and firing fifty to two hundred miles east of the center again. so in spite of it having tons of deep convection and crazy inflow on the east side, on the west side there is but a small low not sharing in the wealth.
this could wreck the short term idea that this will become a hurricane tomorrow, at least.
synoptically this thing is screaming development, it continues to blow impressive convection but none at the surface center.
its kind of like having a million dollars in pennies and not being able to use a coke machine.
HF 1802z17september
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Great analogy HF. a lot of people getting ahead of things on this one. It seems to enjoy toying with us. I go along with the general consensus that it will start cranking and probably become a major player for this season. Just have to keep waiting to see. Sitting here on east coast of Florida and thinking yep I will be happy to wait a long time.
Hurric
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Everyone's eyes are on Isi & Jos...the next candidate seems to has left Africa this morning. Hey Gurus, how are conditions in general in the eastern Trop Atl?
cc
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Center under deep ball of convection. I believe this is currently a TS. Movement slow or nill. Haven't been able to detect any real steady motion with this yet but a faily well organized storm to say the least. Shear pulling out and conditions becoming more favorable. I am also sticking with FL landfall. I think any where from Big Bend south. Also sticking with hurricane not sure if it will be tomorrow but we will see one before US landfall.
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John C
Unregistered
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For those of you who are not familiar with the titles under each persons name. It is just in fun. These titles are generated by the number of posts a registered users posts. Only exception is Administrators, Moderators, Meteorologist and unregistered users.
# post Title
0 Registered User
10 Verified User
25 Weather Watcher
50 Weather Hobbiest
100 Weather Guru
200 Storm Tracker
400 Weather Master
700 Storm Chaser
1200 Veteran Storm Chaser
1600 Knows everyone at the
2500 Is the weather
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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TS Isadore. Lets giver her a warm welcome.
URNT12 KNHC 171749
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/1749Z
B. 16 DEG 05 MIN N
77 DEG 26 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 046 DEG 089 NM
F. 097 DEG 36 KT
G. 046 DEG 089 NM
H. EXTRAP 1008 MB
I. 23 C/ 346 M
J. 24 C/ 358 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /1
O. 1/8 NM
P. AF866 0510A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 36 KT N QUAD 1717Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
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Jim
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I can't even get the name right, Isidore.
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Jim
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Don't know if this has been seen by everyone, but here's the latest Recon report I could find....
000
URNT12 KNHC 171749
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/1749Z
B. 16 DEG 05 MIN N
77 DEG 26 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 046 DEG 089 NM
F. 097 DEG 36 KT
G. 046 DEG 089 NM
H. EXTRAP 1008 MB
I. 23 C/ 346 M
J. 24 C/ 358 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /1
O. 1/8 NM
P. AF866 0510A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 36 KT N QUAD 1717Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
I realize that the maximum flight winds are in the northern quadrant, however, it appears that it may already be a TS and may be upgraded at 5. IMHO.
K_____G: got your mail...thanks..I tried to respond but could not. The answer to your last question is "yes". :-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I believe that "Isidore" or"Isadore" is a HE not a she, since the last storm was Hanna. With a name like this one, if I were a guy, I'd have an attitude too. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well looks like isidore is on the way.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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John, one day I believe that I will be The Weather.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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You are absolutely right, my bad. Kind of fits with our odd little storm to be confused.
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Jim
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Alan
Unregistered
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NRL has change 90L to 11NoName. Two storms classified in one day.
What a rush!
Alan
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah, we've alternated to a male name.. but isidore.. not a very buff name at all. got a drag queen ring to it. i dub this system izzy.. in the same fashion as pat on SNL. all of you guys named isidore, you know where to send the hate mail.
by the way, those are flight level winds. stingy will probably not upgrade unless it has something more robust. with weak systems the conversion factor they use is like 75 or 80% of flight level, it seems.
by the way, system off africa.. has a ways to go. environment fair for now, but the shear monster is a day or two ahead. somebody asked for a guru opinion.. hell im just an enthusiast. but ive got your opinion, right there.
td10 is a jar of pennies. thats my new name for systems with plenty of convective show but nothing in the bank (llc goofy or misplaced). much like a can of corn, in baseball.
HF 1937z17september
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