clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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One of the things that Bastardi often talks about is teleconnection (what's happening in the Pacific tends to teleconnect to what will happen in the Atlantic). As a novice, I'm not about to say I follow all of that, but its interesting to see that the TS in the east pac was forecast to move WNW away from the Mexican coast, but instead has moved northwest and is now forecast to move almost due North in time...so it really never followed forecast either...also never strengthened that much, but that probably doesn't relate as directly to Izzy.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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This mornings path is west of where it was last night not east. All guidance shows it just off the western tip of Cuba in 72hrs. Most show it in the central Gulf thereafter with no recurving to the northeast. The first trough will definitley miss and the second probably will miss. If it does, then all bets are off and Izzy can strike anywhere, but best bets are now on the north central gulf. Looking at past seasons, there is usally a seasonal trend in the paths of storms and this year is directed towards the northern Gulf.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I think that we should stock up on Rolaids immediately. This is going to be a loooonnnnnggggg week/weekend. I would NOT rule out Florida based on one model run, even if they ALL agree. I'm not a met, but even I know enough by now that you cannot rely on a single model run for track guidance. I think that's why the has shifted the track to the west a bit by still is to the right of the "guidance envelope". The longer it sits out there meandering about, the more difficult it will become to predict a landfall with certainty. And..another thing to remember...even though they (the models) have shifted it west a bit, IF it becomes a major hurricane and even just brushes the western coast of Florida, it could still be a very bad weekend. Look what Floyd did to JAX ...and does anyone remember Georges? Here in Lakeland, we had tornadoes all day long, and he was off the coast. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
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ridge weakens over fla. trof moves east it wont move north, upper level winds will be southwest.
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Good point Colleen. Models have shifted west, but we need to see some run to run consistency before jumping to any conclusions.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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SAT-TUE...PERIOD COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF THE TD/TS OR EVEN
HURRICANE BY THIS POINT. THE KEEPS THE H5 RIDGE OVER FL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND IS INDICATING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAS TO SAY. IF THE
VERIFIES WILL BEGIN DRYING OUT SUN AS THE SYSTEM MOVE WEST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND WIND MAY BE LESS OF A FACTOR...BUT SHOULD NOTE UPR
PATTERNS SEEM TO FAVOR THE CEN GULF MORE AND NOT BUYING THE WSW MVMT
OF THE . GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT DEVIATE FM THE
CURRENT FORECAST...SHOWING CHC/SCT POPS THRU MON AND WINDY
CONDITIONS OVR THE WEEKEND.
Melbourne forecast
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Anonymous
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colleen your right, plus you have to go with what features are around at the time not with past history. there is a ridge over fla. right now but it may not be there when izzy is there .because hes going so slow, ridge will be gone and trofs will be coming down . mark im in fla. too
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andy1tom
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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http://www.net-waves.net/weather/td10.php
If these came out just a couple of hours ago I don't see a whole lot of change in the forecast. Am I missing the boat or is this old info??
Edited by andy1tom (Wed Sep 18 2002 02:45 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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colleen, starting to get good banding from the southwest. this thing is gonna pop soon. also looks like it may be goin more nnw than northwest. that would change everything, like bastardi said just dont look at models look at whats out there.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Heard it on k92 radio this am just prior to my note here
Now I am really confused. Visitors come. go .come. go
We will see tomorrow...
thanks for all the help
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I've been noticing a more nnw movement, maybe its just my eyes! THOUGHTS???????
Jeanine/Hollywood
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Watching the morning Sat loops. It appears that movement is NNW rather than wnw. Got a gut feeling that South Florida could be in trouble. Need to wait another day or so before we will know for sure. Great board, keep up the fun discussion.
Steve
South Florida
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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i agree with a good call by Hankfrank on seeing the was right. Almost all the models including the AVN that i like best next to the has it up off cuba by Friday, missing the trough as it lifts out and a weak short wave, then moves it off to the W or even wsw as ridge comes screaming down to the northern gulf, plus with a strong hurricane forcasted to be there a general pick up in speed of around 8 then 12 mph will take shape late sunday into next week. Heading right towards Tampico. Cant say it will make landfall there like I few days back said tampa-Miami as most of us did feel the shortwave trough behind will push it off to the NE. But the system slowed enough to miss the full timing. Remember last Saturday models had it today crossing Cuba and 2 had it ENE of there near the Bahamas. So now to say it will hit Tampico in 6-7 days is like guessing 5/6 numbers in the lotto.
General Conditions show heavy showers and T-storms over Jamaica, reports from Kingston int show S and E parts of the island reporting winds near TS strength in squalls. Latest pressure as of now is 1004mb winds near 45 but could be up to 50 by 11am. Movement has been a wobble to the NW and should at times move NNW and be near G Cayman late tonight and near S end of Cuba Thurs. Should cross the state near 82W later Thurs night into Friday. and meander Saturday moving little as the trough moves out. Should be a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. After that the models take the system W. Only chance florida has is if Isadora moves more NNW during the next 48 hours and crosses Cuba E of 81 to south of Keywest. Then it might have enough eastward placement to keep it in the eastern Gulf or have it cross florida from later Sunday or early next week. Timing is everything here. I am acknowledging the models more though watching this trough more then Isadore. The N central gulf is in the picture too BUT wont be for many days. If she misses the trough and gets caught by the strong ridge later sunday and monday she will move W. Another trough will come down next week and according to next mid weeks flow will come then out of the W and SW pushing the weakening by then Cat 3 120mph Isadore N then NE into the N central Gulf states as a strong Cat 1. So different possibilities here. Florida folks you need to see a N movement or NNW during the next 2 days then if not a W movement that could go right into the Tampico area by Midweek, or the next trough will catch the storm in the sw gulf and turn it NNE. New 11am says still 45mph. Increase those winds by 80 in the gulf on Saturday. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 18, 2002
we are in a brief gap between reconnaissance aircraft this
morning...but satellite imagery indicates that Isidore continues to
organize...with the development of a curved band south of the center
and a burst of deep convection very close to the center. The next
aircraft will almost surely find a well-defined center for the first
time and increased winds should follow rather quickly. Conditions
appear conducive for significant strengthening once a well-defined
center develops.
There has been no change to the track forecast or thinking. The
initial motion is 315/6. In the short term...guidance is in good
agreement on a continued northwesterly track. Things get
interesting near the end of the forecast period when a mid-to upper
level trough swings into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Timing
will be everything as to whether Isidore has moved far enough into
the Gulf to be picked up by the trough...or left behind. The
current official forecast calls for only very slow motion at the end
of the forecast period. At this point...no portion of the Gulf of
Mexico coastline can be ruled out as a potential ultimate landfall.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/1500z 17.9n 78.7w 40 kts
12hr VT 19/0000z 18.7n 79.5w 45 kts
24hr VT 19/1200z 19.9n 80.8w 55 kts
36hr VT 20/0000z 21.1n 82.1w 65 kts
48hr VT 20/1200z 22.5n 83.5w 75 kts
72hr VT 21/1200z 23.5n 84.5w 80 kts
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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this morning.. has the look of a system that will deepen rapidly after the core organization improves just a little more. may in fact be a hurricane this evening... wouldnt mind that since i said it would yesterday morning. to me the intensity forecast is a no brainer.. this will be category 3-4 by the weekend. nothing to stop it. problem is track.
all of those neat recurvature solutions from the weekend were based on the storm already being strong yesterday, already being well ahead of its current position. the slow speed and slow, jumpy intensification have sort of ruined the easy recurvature solution. problem now is, the shortwaves leading the really big high coming down from western canada next week may not be enough to tap the ridge out of the way and give izzy a path. they might just skim by and then leave a mid layer ridge intact across the gulf. the rapid SW movement.. i wont entirely discount. does anyone remember iris last year? the reason it blitzed westward across the caribbean was because a massive longwave and surface high built down over the states and blocked its recurvature. same issue here.. if izzy takes it slow and easy, path ahead may be blocked.. and though i think the westward movement is overdone.. that would surely remove florida from the crosshairs.
so basically.. there are a couple more shortwaves for izzy to latch on to.. after that a big longwave trough will make an impermeable barrier across the gulf unless something unforseen on the subtropical jet flow from the east pacific comes along and nudges izzy back or holds it in place until the 3rd amplification.. bastardi's super cold shot late week.. comes to get it. obviously we're talking over a week away.. by then the storm could have already hit florida early, somehow charged its way into the upper gulf ahead of the longwave (hard to buy that one), turned left and sped into mexico.. or just meandered in the southern gulf like Opal.
if isidore was just a day ahead of its movement and intensity, this would be a cut and dry florida landfall. but the storm has waited and may miss the chance to phase in the eastern gulf.. and end up never doing so, or just waiting another week.
HF 1454z18september
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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good forcasting again hank.
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Anonymousnickd
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what is the time frame with the troughs? where does izzy have to be to catch them?
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Anonymous
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Timing is everything....absolutely. Interesting that he seems to have a more northerly component during the last 3 hours, more like 320/325...could be temporary, but there seems to be a weakness to the north where it's bulging as it gets organized. Let's see if it stays east of Grand Cayman. If the weakness is to the north (as some of the flow seems to indicate) it may allow him to increase forward speed for a while. All playing into the factor of the timing issue. I wouldn't say the "only chance" for Flrida landfall is if this NNW motion continues; we just don't know that yet Scott. There are many variables. That's not to say Florida is the target, but we don't know the strength of the trough progged to come in over the weekend, and the effect it will have on Isidore with the SW flow ahead of it. This will change 10 times before Friday. I do fear if it goes further north quicker and does target SW Florida, that the notice may to too late to Evacuate if it's a major storm. nail biting time here. Cheers!! Steve H.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
this loop may illustrate what steve mentioned.
Notice the convection aroun dthe Keyes and points further south being 'pushed' north with what seems to be part of this storms environment or a weakness to the ridge or a combo of the two.
Meaning the outflow is pushing convecrtion north and there is not enough ridge to block that stray convection or divert it.
I am probably way off so bare with me!
Still in kindergarten here with regards to my weather schoolage  :
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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also think bout this could stall just south of cuba, and as trof digs,rapid intensification, and gets tugged north , and roars thru straits and keys and right up the middle of fla.
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