scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Yes a NNW motion will infact be the only chance for a florida landfall. If this does happen then this will bring the system closer to the Fla straits and give it a chance to catch the trough. The trough is strong entering the NW gulf later on Thurs but will weaken over the next 48 hours after that and will lift out Sunday with a ridge over the N Gulf across N florida. We dont know though how strong the ridge will be yet on this. Anyways, Im a met , I would like to see this come to florida. LOL. scottsvb 
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Mary
Unregistered
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The local feed from the weather channel ran a scrawl an hour or so ago in orange saying that Florida's weather would be effected later this week by Tropical Storm Isidore. This concerns me because usually here in mouse country the merchants will not allow negative weather to be discussed unless you can look out the window and see the rain coming down. I hope that this was just an overzelous bored computer data input operator and not a serious decision. Florida has bogus elections we dont need hurricanes too.
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I've said it all along and I will say it ONE more time. It will be a western gulf problem or bust. You people act like this has not been predicted by anyone yet. I said it 2 days ago. I have learned my lesson about paying attention to models. Let's see what happens.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I could be seeing things, but watching the Vis Loop it appears that the LLC is relocating about 100 miles to the WNW of Jamaica. My eyes may be playing tricks but it really looks like the center is reforming just south of all the deep convection NW of Jamaica. Anyone else see this?
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Looking at the WV loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
It looks like the center of circulation is moving NNW, any thoughts on this.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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no way to know for sure after 72 hours where this is going. look at it right now its moving more nnw than nw. 72 hour swath has also moved more to the right also. and every degree it moves more north the stronger the threat to the keys and fla. very scary a major hurricane to the keys.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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yes. like i said earlier its moving mainly north just a little west. that would change everything. and this thing is getting ready to explode. look at what you see, not at what a computer shows.
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Brett
Unregistered
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Good posts, very informative. I am a noob to this site, but an avid weather fan in Miami. Can any of you direct me to sites where I can view the individual models, so as to join in the discussion? Thank you.
Also, I haven't seen any comments about the weakening of the storm as it passes Cuba. I took a look at the topography of Cuba last night, and it does appear that if the storm continues NNW, and passes East of Havana, the mountains are much smaller than if it passes west, or further east. In any event, if the NNW trend continues, is it possible the storm will be torn apart in Cuba?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I have been trying all morning to see this nnw motion. It looks to me to be moving nw right in line with previous paths predicted by the . Izzy does look like he is getting much stronger. I would not be surprised to see a hurricane by tonight. Still believe this one will become a monster and will be somewhere in the central gulf in 96 hours still moving northwest. I think what you guys are seeing as a northerly turn is simply the expanding of the . If you look, it is expanding westward as well.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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depending where it crosses and at what forward speed it is going. but sraits and gulfstream are very warm waters!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Please note that there is every chance the storm center will miss Miami but the weather system ie RAIN will still affect it and I think its very responsible to advise people that our weather will be affected and isn't hype.
Trust me.. if it goes into the Gulf everyone will go back to the Dolphins and the beach and the Air Conditioned Mall faster than Debby disappated.
But, rather safe than sorry. It isn't heading WNW currently and think their concern was the more NW bearing and look of intensifying via banding.
Bobbi
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Good comment about nail biting.. I just realized I don't have water and usually I do and usually nothing happens.
Oops.. Bobbi
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Can be seen in last few frames.
Also, Hanna is off NC, trying for a comeback, very skeletal at the moment.
Stay tuned..Is has a few tricks up his sleeve yet.
IHS,
Bill
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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First to Mary: I saw that too, and you are correct in saying that they usually don't mention that. The fact that they are concerned about the Peace River flooding in Bartow tells a tale in itself. They must be thinking that it will be near enough to our coast line here that we will at the very least get the feeder bands which will directly affect our weather.
Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the say that EVERYONE from Mexico to Florida should be watching this carefully? That tells me one thing: that THEY are looking for consistency in the runs and they are not getting it. It is indeed just below the Keys in 72 hours, if you plot the coordinates. It also appears that it has taken a jog a bit more to the NNW as it is closer to Jamaica than it was predicted to be BY the models. I believe that would be why the official track is to the RIGHT of the guidance envelope. I have not seen them mention one single time that Florida is out of the woods, and until they do I am not writing this one off.
Another thing: if it is moving at 7mph, it's not the fastest storm I've ever seen but it IS moving. Which means that it will be going SOMEWHERE for at least another day. The strike probablities went up for Key West from 17% to 22%; Tampa from 7% to 10%. If they thought this was going to turn to the west as dramatically as some here think it is, those probabiliies would have gone down, not up. For the time being, until given the all clear by the , all residents along the GOM from Texas to Florida should be watching this thing very carefully. It may go west at some point, but for now the uncertainty is too great to just blow it off. To do so would be foolish and unless someone here is equipped with a crystal ball, I don't think any of us know for certain where it will go.
Timing and position will be the key here. If it moves further north faster, watch out Florida. If it slows down dramatically, everything is up in the air. We don't know the answers to a lot of questions yet, that's for sure. But if it DOES make it's trip to the north quicker, it's going to get messy here in Florida.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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just saw latest sat. photo and said it is moving more to north than nw.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I can do a water vapor loop better than so many but I am braindead when it comes to remembering my password for this site (and yes I asked for it to be sent to me... sorry Hurric.. I'm trying)
Anyway...excellent thoughts Steve and someone else a while back on the loops... very interesting set up..in some way Carib storms are more interesting with more possibilities than the usual Cape Verde recurvature questions.
So... here are my thoughts.. and an interesting webcan on Bear Cut that was made by a storm in 1835 with a similar path as Isidore..
http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/media/msc-webcam/
1 Things are about to change.. there is banding and signs of NNW movement though granted this storm stair steps everywhere..
2 Point at which the trof is digging or will soon dig is equal distance with the ULL that has pulled west. Combined with the digging trough behind it which is almost at the same latitude now and still digging as weak Isidore has it caught in the flow.. come on..it is almost stalled which means there are forces battling for its attention. The trough isn't going to stop digging anytime today whereas the ULL is moving further out of the picture.. Those 3 things add up to the storm beginning to move NNW (being conservative here)as a building storm and hitting Cuba dead on as a hurricane or near hurricane strength.
3 If the storm had moved west then there would be more concern for it to bomb ala Gilbert type of storm but on the present path closer to the Cuban coast there will be interaction between Jamaica and Cuba's more moutainous terrain on its NE-N side and that will inhibit it from exploding as some had predicted.
4 Remember earliest runs of this storm because it has followed the early model runs for when it was down in Trinidad doing the Limbo dance
5 Motion with this storm has been a jog more west..than a build up of convection to the NE and then that convection wraps to the north around the which ends up with a smoothed out motion of NW
6 I said Mobile should watch yesterday partly in jest and partly for real because if it were to be pulled into the Gulf I don't see it moving as far west as models today indicated and any time you have a Carib hurricane to your south you SHOULD be watching.
We all should be watching.
Lastly.. I find sometimes storms follow the original models more closely in retrospect than the in between pulls L and R of the track..
Anyone see the AVN today.. usually would count it out but find it possible.
http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/media/msc-webcam/
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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hi colleen, like we have said here before. look at what your eyes see and not what a model says. models can change. i lived in miami in the 60's and this reminds me of cleo and inez. very scary senario for keys especially, a major hurricane going thru there. and as you know only one way out of there. they have to know early to get out from down there.this one could go thru keys and straight up the middle of fla. also sure miss john hope. dont you. mark. sebring, fla.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I wish Izzy would hurry up and get an eye so we could end all of the speculation of current movement and be able to easily track him.
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Brett
Unregistered
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I agree with ya Colleen. What is the causal factor that takes the storm on a sharp turn to the w, even wsw, after 60-72 hours on the ? And anyone else notice that the storm takes a turn to the North on the at 48 hrs., followed by the sharp W turn? Any explanations?
Like you Colleen this one still concerns me. My biggest concern is the strength. I have to say, I am usually very conservative when it comes to Hurricanes bearing down on Florida, as they generally seem to turn away, but in terms of strength....this one makes me nervous. I just have a bad feeling it may indeed explode in intensity...especially if the high pressure builds over it as predicted. These are super-heated waters down there....
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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I am in agreement with some earlier posters that it looks like the center is relocating. Almost looks like the system is going to split into two.
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