Anonymous
Unregistered
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Delete my No NNW movement post please. Usually I'm pretty careful with this stuff, but uh, I blew it.
Thanks,
Steve
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I like Guiness too, but I prefer Harp. Anyway, I wrote down 79.9 instead of 78.9. Someone was in here talking about how the Tyco execs may be locked up tomorrow and I was halfway paying attention to them while trying to get the coordinates. BONEHEAD move.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Mike
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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I will buy the third!!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Thanks guys for the good sites and information. I indeed located the models within the first post, and thats where I got the information from . I agree with ya Colleen...my tone was intended to be a bit sarcastic. I really wanted to know what was the "influence" that turned the system West after 72 hours in the model, since I truly can't figure out why it has it shifting so sharply in that direction.
As for the northward jog, I can't explain that either, although I admit I am not a scientist by trade. Can anyone shed some more light on the competing factors we have here, and more importantly, on the intensity forecasts?
Brett
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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steve its ok, i have noticed it takes awhile even for to state a movement, we have seen in their advisories.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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man.... this thing is starting to wrap around the west side of it too, east side already has, i think this could be a hurricane even this evening. earlier in discussion they said they might be underestimating the strength forecast, i think the guy was right. said rapid strengthining down the road .......127+++++ scary! mark
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troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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looks like forward speed may have increased just a tad
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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when should we expect the data from the recon flight??
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I observed three things:
1. I did see a more NNW jog than NW in the last two frames.
2. The forward motion did look a tad faster on the last frame. It sort of looked like the storm "jumped" forward.
3. The worst observation of them all. This baby is really starting to wrap-up. A central dense overcast is evident on the imagery and banding is starting to take place. System also trying to get larger.
Also read new NWS Melbourne discussion. They said we will "at least" see indirect impacts from the storm. I have a feeling that Central Florida will, at the very least, see some strong rainbands from this system. I'm also concerned about northward wobbles as Isidore develops an eye. Looks like this storm is going to be very wobbly.
Just looked at model runs again and I thought, "Yeah right." If you notice all of the models that turn the storm west do so sharply. This is highly unrealistic. Any turn, be it NE or W, will be a a somewhat gentle turn. Still can't believe the models given the itensity of the trough coming down and the possibility of a quicker-moving storm.
Thoughts and comments welcome.
Kevin 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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look at key west weather discussion, high pressure ridge over fla. will weaken and move out, opening the door for the strong trof coming down.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Any more ideas about Flroida Yet ?
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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If this sucker is picking up forward speed and going more northerly, I am not too thrilled. To me, the sooner it gets to the Gulf, the better the chance of a recurve into South or Central Florida. I will be watching intently. That is for sure.
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Jim
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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just me... look at key west weather discussion.
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Justin in Miami
Unregistered
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I am curious to know if anyone is a meteorologist? Very interesting discussion and it appears the plot is thickening with this storm. Anyone have links where I can see a larger Water Vapor picture/loop than the one at the site?
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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If the ridge weakens slowly by Saturday as Key West NWS is forecasting, then it would be highly unlikely for Isidore to keep moving NW like forecasts ( I have a feeling their track may just shift more easterly soon). Combine this with the possibility of a category two/three hurricane at that time and you have a great candidate for a northward movement.
Rasvar: In past couple of hours it does indeed look like the storm has sped up some. This is definitely not good news. As you said, the sooner this bad boy makes it into the GOMEX, the more chance it will swing NE.
Besides, if the a couple models are so intent on a westerly path eventually, then why didn't shift the track closer to the Yucatan Peninsula? Looks like a more eastward adjustment over the next few days.
Kevin
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Skeeter
Unregistered
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Skeeter here, new to the site, you guys are having some good conversations. Why does it seem that is not concerned enough with this storm. Most indications show it being a bad one but they are awful conservative for as close as it is to the Keys and for that matter all of Florida. Where are the pressures dropping out ahead of the storm ? Say out 150 to 250 miles and where are they forecasted to drop ? Thanks again for all the interesting stuff - Chris
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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kevin see where key west said stay tuned. without a ridge over fla. and trof digging down and across the southeast it cant go west.
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Brett
Unregistered
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I just took a peek at all of the models....at the moment, not a single one has the storm curving into Florida...one takes it up the west coast of Florida, but far enough away so as not to raise alarm....and one takes it directly onshore east of New Orleans, as a very scary storm....but the rest either leave it in the southern GOMex, or take it into the Yucatan, which is what and UKMet do. My question: How often is new data put into these models? As a relatively new person to the models, how much do they change with new data? Seems to me there is quite a divergence on the model runs, but that south florida may be spared. Indeed, I read a report that no flood watches are going to be posted anytime soon, and the original fears of 30 inches of water from this system are dissipating.
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John C
Unregistered
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Justin,
Your Water Vapor Loop, its interactive!
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrwv.html
Some meteorologist post from time to time. Some remain anonymous.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
345 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
...FLOOD THREAT ALONG SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST DECREASES...
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY THE National Hurricane Center TO MOVE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ISIDORE WILL IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY AS CONCERNS RAINFALL FLOODING. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
MOST LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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