Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Hey Colleen,
I believe that if a test is scheduled, but they (the emergency folks) think that they will have to use the system they will postpon the test untill the threat has passed. So people will not be confused as to what is a test and what is a actual warning. We had a test here in Brevard County this morning at 9:30am
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looks like the latest might have a pretty feasible solution that takes all scenarios into account. A continued NW move, mssing the first trough then getting pushed west or WSW then getting picked up by the second trough and coming N into Mobile Pensacola area as a stron cat3 Most logical run I've seen yet
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN KEYS TO DADE,BROWARD,PALM BEACH COUNTIES ARE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR NOW ON THIS ONE, THEY CAN GO BACK NOW TO REVIEWING JANET RENOS VOTES EVEN THOUGH SHE CONCEEDED. ANYWAYS THOUGH PEOPLE STILL FROM LOWER KEYS AND W FLORIDA ALL THE WAY AROUND THE GULF SHOULD STILL JUST KEEP WATCHING.SCOTTSVB
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Or so I think
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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could also be for flooding maybe. but good points colleen & shawn
Edited by andy1tom (Thu Sep 19 2002 03:13 PM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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It was from early this morning (just got it), but you can see we're in the same boat with the gurus:
...yesterday he logn range model showed it hitting Slidell, but this morning is now targeting Panama City Beach. Looks like if the trough is strong enough to pick up the storm, it will be drawn into Florida. If not, it will drift into the Southern Gulf and might meander. Several models bring it to Tampico/BoC, but at the moment, I do not see why that would happen. It is still really early to tell, but right now I would count on this becoming a major hurricane....
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Volusia Mike
Unregistered
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Just ran the numbers for the last 21 hours (17:00 09-18 to 1400 09-19). Izzy has moved .9 degrees west, 2 degrees North... That looks like NNW... 
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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That might be the case, but what matters is what the motion has been lately and that is more of a wnw . If that continue it will bring Izzy more through the Yucatan Channel where it will be over more water.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I think you ar forgetting the repostioning of the center. Since the center reformed, it has moved decidedly WNW slowly but surely.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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For Crying out loud, Scott! I had to read your post about 6-7 times to figure out what you were trying to say, and I'm still not sure if I got it all figured out! First you said that maybe your gut instinct of a Tampico landfall midweek may be coming true. Then you said that and the other models have him missing the trough 36 hours. Then you said that the models were split between a W turn and a NE turn. Then I think you mentioned Brownsville, TX might get it; then you threw in some more things that would verify your forecast for a west central FL landfall; then you told us it wouldn't hit the Yucatan but you might go with a NE turn or you would go with a westward turn. You also said that that was a simple forecast. With all due respect to your meteorology skills, I think that was anything but simple. The only thing I know for sure is that you think that you have been right all along.
The statement "the entire GOM needs to watch this" would pretty much cover what you said in 10 words or less.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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03 GMT 09/19/02 19.7N 79.5W
09 GMT 09/19/02 20.0N 80.8W
15 GMT 09/19/02 20.0N 81.2W
18 GMT 09/19/02 20.3N 81.7W (intermediate)
The overall movement of the storm has been .6 North and 2.2 West. That returns a slope of 3/11 - in other words, for every 3 tenths of a degree it moves north, it's going 1.1 degrees west. WNW would be 1/2 (or 2/1 if you look at it as 11/3 which I think is actually the right way to do it). Using old LCD pre-algebra, the difference becomes 6/3 vs. 11/3. That tells me the storm overall has been heading much closer to west than nw. W is 270 degrees on the compass. NW is 315. WNW is 292.5 degrees, then this storm is heading somewhere between 270-280. I can't for the life of me remember how to do cross multiplication - someone post the formula ACK, but anyway, we've had a W-WNW moving storm today. Models will change again at 18Z.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Took a morning off from Isidore today...don't want to get burned out on it too quickly, and I needed to see everything with fresh eyes...a few thoughts on general trends and some things posed on the board.
1) In reference to the PSU site, they are a little slow about updating the global models and the , but it ain't their fault. The Global (non US) models aren't as readily available to US users, and take a while (for some weird reason) to get delivered to US interests. The , because your federal government has decided that we (non-NWS folks) aren't responsible enough to handle it, time delays the release of the data to the non NWS community for 6-12 hrs. (Plus, did you know that there are several VERSIONS of the ? GFDN, GUNS, , GFDUK? Do we get to see those? NOPE!)
2) Izzy is going a little more W than I was thinking last night....does this change the forecast thinking? Not yet, although where it crosses Cuba is pretty important in the evolution of all of this. Late Vis's seem to be a little more Northerly, but I haven't done enough analysis to be sure.
3) Strengthening nicely...in fact, this may be one of those VERY rare storms where we do better on intensity than track...I just see nothing ahead, besides Cuba, to keep it from getting to major status.
4) Long term...boy, I thought this might clear up a bit, but if anything , it's more muddled. The problem is that the global models, as good as they are, aren't gonna reflect what is really going on....because they can't cope with pressures and gradients that low, because the resolution isn't good enough...so you have to look at the smaller scale models (in general...I'm not suggesting to throw out the AVN or anything, but it needs to be weighted)...the should have considerable weight, because in this case it will handle the processes internally pretty well, since any motion in the mid-term will be storm-initiated, rather than environment initiated. (Does that make sense?)
So, what is there anything new? Not really...we are atill in a wait and see mode. There is nothing that has developed this morning that lends any clarity or weight from one solution to another...just keep watching, and stay alert.
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Jason Kelley
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Rickoshade
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
Loc: Mobile Al
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still looks wnw to me...and any slowdown is only a generation of a distinct eyewall. general trend wnw...and this motion will make it stay over water. should be a two by morning....raise a notch and hold as a minimal 3....then get into the gulf....hesitate because of missing the first trough, then get picked up and hurled toward some hapless city as a major hurricane. the potential is a 5, and I think the feelings I am having are leaning to a 4-5...probably a 5, and strike as a 4, ....but maybe strike as a 5, IF all the conditions hit just right.
Doubt seriously it will keep going west..unless the trough lifts out or is weak, in which case texas gets the thrill. it won't hit florida either..but will banana north to MOBILE>.....okay, there ya have it...you all knew I was gonna pick my city...I mean, why not....?.....we haven't had a biggee since freddie in 79...
freddy..3
izzy...5
yeah, makes sense to me.
Mobile......flattened
as Bastardi said..."weeping and gnashing of teeth. heck, a cat 3 is BAD enough...I went through one...I can't imagine the trepidation and scare a 4 or 5 would cause....
let's start a poll, eh?....
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Heres a good link to observations of Caribbean and Cuba... Highest sustainded wind I could find was 30mph on one of the small islands south of Cuba its self.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Colleen,
My first smile of the day... If we haven't all learned yet, when a hurricane makes landfall, then we'll know where it went...
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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It was only a matter of time. Mobile as a Cat 4 or 5 it is. LMAO.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I don't know now about it staying east of the Isle of Youth. It's jogging N then W theNW then W, now WNW. BTW, the , AVN & UKMET now have a more westerly track on the 12Z run. At 0Z Friday they will go right again. But the AVN and UKMET show a large ridge over the central US. Does this make sense guys??? A lot is riding on the Ridge/Trough/Ridge placement with the AVN. Usually 12Z AVN runs are discarded, but sometimes not. It is interesting that the UKMET joins the AVN in AAlmost bringing this into the BOC but not quite. Maybe Izzy wants to tour the GOM before heading for Orlando to fly back home. Cheers!!
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Marktropic
Unregistered
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Sorry I've been at work all day did'nt see it was old. I'll look better next time!! 
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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The winds had increased 10mph there in 3 hours but no pressure drop yet.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Heres 154 PM recon data.
000
URNT12 KNHC 191754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/1754Z
B. 20 DEG 26 MIN N
81 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1279 M
D. 50 KT
E. 294 DEG 23 NM
F. 009 DEG 53 KT
G. 280 DEG 010 NM
H. 987 MB
I. 18 C/ 1546 M
J. 22 C/ 1557 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 1210A ISIDORE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 53 KT W QUAD 1751Z.
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