Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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Sorry, tonight I have to vent:
Why is it whenever someone says they think it moved or it looks like it is moving all of the comments about wishcasting come out and all the stories of what can happen do so don't wish. NO ONE IS WHISHING, not only is wish casting not allowed on the board (I Agree), but now it has been suggested that if you are going to post any comments you have to be able to back them up. I DID NOT KNOW THAT THERE WAS A CRITERIA TO BE ABLE TO POST HERE. Let me say I have been on this board for 3yrs also (peanuts/aka Jeanine) I don't say much because everyone around here has gotten so high and mighty. I can only speak for myself and say that I do not have the meteorologic background that some of you do (but enjoy tracking hurricanes and the weather)and sometimes it gets a little boring lurking in the background. So if all I can offer is a link or maybe something about a storm moving don't be so darn critical. I'm sure there are others who feel the same. Nobody said it has taken a new path and thats the way its going, just that they think they may have seen it move. For me, Andrew came, I left, Irene came I was scared, so no wishcasting here. I've been up with the rest of you looking and HOPING ITS NOT COMING MY WAY.................................There I'm done  P.S. this took me a while to type so if you haven't been on page two of this thread or were not on here last night you won't know what I was refering to! Sorry if there are any spelling errors
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Ummmm...did I say something to the contrary?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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5 Stars, can I have one?
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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Then it is changing directions...anyone who has any sense can see that in the last 24 hours...the "experts" have turned the direction of the storm 90 degrees counter-clockwise. I am no genius, but I do know NO ONE knows what this will do....
one thing I do know...it is stalling out there...and had it stalled over Cuba...it just might have died....and since it has stalled...it is fixin' to probably CHANGE it's course....and when it does...it might meander...and STALL AGAIN...
remember...no strong steering currents right now....until this thing takes off at about 10 mph..you can pretty much be sure anything is possible...
Mobile...ground zero...cat 5....nanny nanny boo boo....
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Check out the last paragraph...
068
WTNT45 KNHC 210242
TCDAT5
HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002
ISIDORE SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS IT WAS CROSSING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA. THE EYE WAS OBSERVED BY RADARS FROM HAVANA
..LA BAJADA CUBA...AND KEY WEST. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED
A MINIMUM PRESURE OF 964 MB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE EYE IS NOW
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION AND RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CUBA FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND
06 UTC AND WILL DETERMINE IF ISIDORE LOST STRENGTH ON ITS LONG TREK
OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. T-NUMBERS
SUGGEST WINDS BETWEEN 90 AND 100 KNOTS. HOWEVER...INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS SINCE THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN
IDEAL UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...ISIDORE IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT. MOST OF THEM SHOW A
SLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVING HURRICANE ALONG AND NOT FAR FROM
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THIS IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...I SEE TROUBLE
ON THE HORIZON. THE GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY KEPT
ISIDORE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS NOW TURNING THE HURRICANE
NORTHWARD. AND THE ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE NORTHWARD
TURN BUT A LITTLE BIT SOONER. THE UK HAS BECOME THE ONLY MODEL THAT
MOVES THE HURRICANE WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO. THIS NORTHWARD TURN IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THE STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS BECOMES REPLACED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS
CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AND IN THE NORTHWARD
TURN OF THE HURRICANE BUT THEY DIFFER IN THE TIMING.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 22.4N 84.6W 85 KTS
12HR VT 21/1200Z 22.9N 85.4W 90 KTS
24HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 87.0W 100 KTS
36HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 88.0W 105 KTS
48HR VT 23/0000Z 22.5N 89.0W 110 KTS
72HR VT 24/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 115 KTS
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Jason Kelley
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Bruce, At least you have a star! 3 of em. Can I have one of yours?
snif snif 
Edited by troy2 (Sat Sep 21 2002 03:08 AM)
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Well said Jeanine...Everyone who borders the GOM is on edge right now. I don't want this to hit Florida, Hell, I don't want him to hit anywhere. We're all here for one reason, to "cast" our opinions, some expert, some not. So let's cool, it and get back to what we're all here for.
And for those that do want "wish-casting", here's mine, I wish Izzy would just DIE!
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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Camille went north....stalled for I think 24 hours?......and that extra time enabled her to reach that status...
this storm...is doing things we DON'T want it to...
what we have here is quite simple....
A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NO PARTICULAR PLACE TO GO....... 
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DopplerGal
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: S. E. Alabama
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So North again, huh. Looks like every other day it's headed in my direction!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I hate this. I really should get some sleep. Can someone check out the longrange Key West Radar. You can pick up the center exiting the coast of Cuba. It now appears to be wobbling NE. This is evident because there is a tiny island and the band moves NE from this. By the way I need to watch this because I live in Key West. If the 3% chance comes to fruition. I wake up and need to board up a business a home and evacuate a family in the wind and rain. If you look at radar there really isn't that much room for error. It's not like a typical storm where you have 3 days of nice weather to prepare. If this does an about face any preparations will have to be done in lousy conditions.
Keith
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I don't think it has stalled, looking at the Cancun radar the center seems to continue on a slow NW track. But has anyone noticed the massive convection build-up to the SE on IR? Something is going on. This storm is not going to cooperate with any models... and I don't think anyone has a clue what it is going to do.
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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n/w at 7 how long will that last when we get up if it is still north west that will be strange this is no wish but a fact only one person nose were its going and its not you or me
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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I'm not sure it has stalled either, but I do see it as having slowed down, and that often preceeds a change of direction. Yet, the URL http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml does show it has moved back out into water, off shore and the slowdow may be due to the fact it has been over land for several hours. IF it has slowed and is changing directions, all of Florida is in deep doo-doo, especially you guys in the Keys.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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*IF*, and boy do I mean *IF* the models can get some consistency with this northward turn that they have suddenly switched to, I definitely won't need to change my forecast for now.
I could imagine a slow northward drift beginning in 72 hours and after that I would have to think the shortwave would come down and send Isidore NE towards the Big Bend area. However, it is MUCH to early to say anything with any consistency or accuracy.
The possible short-fused nature of Isidore reminds me somewhat of Irene back in 1999.
Kevin
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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It probably hasnt stalled for long. Some times when I have been on land all day long or for a while, especially a hot and humid land like say, Cuba, when i jump back into the water I dont move much right away, but kinda go "Ahhhhh this feels nice!" you know, enjoying the water.
Maybe thats what Izzy is doin
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Not exactly what I expected to see. Unless there was an error in the typed coordinates, they move Isidore due west for 72 hours. It starts at 22.4 and ends up at 22.5 around 90 or so. I think there is a western or wnw component in the next 48 or so, but it kind of struck me as odd.
Jeannine - I got a PM headed to ya. Said I wasn't going to post anymore on my part in all that.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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I was just reading that. Also was wondering if the fact it was only .5 south of the farthest northern forecast at 5:00 pm was going to start changing their tune. If it sneaks much above 23N it just about blows most of the Mex. landfall models out the window. In a really weird way, it may be good news for the east coast, because if there was something strong enough to keep Izzy from moving north it might also keep a possible huricane in the Atlantic from turning north away from us(I'm in Jacksonville). Do you think I'm way off base on that last thought? The is running test models on a wanabe east of PR.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
THERE IS
CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AND IN THE NORTHWARD
TURN OF THE HURRICANE BUT THEY DIFFER IN THE TIMING.
A couple of days ago...seems like a week you posted a Suite showing possible landfall not too far from your location: Has the change in the information you just posted change your opinion or do you think it is still gonna go West, then North per that Suite's solution?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Fox 8 met said that one of the reasons that Izzy will eventually make the northward track was based on the following:
There is a large ULL off to the NE of the system and that is going to drive the system off to the west or even WSW for the next couple of days... over time the ULL off to the NE of the system will be replace with high pressure which and this will be the trigger that will influence Izzy to move northward, because he will be rotating around the edge of the high pressure and that's the mechanism that eventually drives the system northward.... this was his forecast... not mine... but makes sense in this senseless situation...
Several of the models tonight are in agreement with the northward track... has it going to the MS coast just southeast of Biloxi... but hey, what city has not gotten a direct hit with the over the past two days from Izzy ....
I'm still sticking with my initial forcast of a land fall on the FL panhandle, but reserver the right to shift it just a tad bit west... I'm going to go down with the ship on this one as far as forecast... this thing might end up in Mexico... but I doubt it... eventually its going north.... if I'm wrong, and I hope so, crow tastes just fine with a cold miller light...
as someone posted earlier, what would Nash Roberts forecast.... all he needed was a black marker and marker board... he was one of the best...
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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In a perfect world, Izzy would pull a Lenny and head back the way he came! And yes, I do know that's not going to happen.
Once they get in the Gulf, someone is going to get affected, its just a matter of when now, not if. Still have no idea where this thing is going, but I have a good excuse...I'm not a met--I think I too, qualify as a lurker/recent poster.
Wanted to say thanks to Jason, Scottsvb, and Bostwick?? for taking the time to post here....its really nice to see the pro's perspective.
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