Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Hmmm. That area is very interesting, HF. It will bear watching, that's for sure. And I do see the area you are talking about NE of 91L, and you're right, it might just gobble it up.
Well. I am dizzy now from watching the loops. Off to run some errands.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
I think the immediate story is going to be the upper low that cuts off over the NW Gulf. If it sits in there for at least 2 days, it's a weather maker. No model has any concensus as to what it will do. recognizes at 48 but not at 72. No other model really even picks up on it that much. If you watch the WV Loop, you can see the trof split occurring and why the low is likely to close off over the NW Gulf instead of the E-Central Gulf Coast.
As to whether the energy slides SSW into Mexico or not is anyone's guess. The models - as we all know - tend to be all over the place and changing daily in these transitional seasons (spring-summer and summer-fall). But the pictures don't lie.
The two areas to watch this weekend will be off the W LA/Upper TX coast and S/SE of Miami. There could be some flooding rains in coastal South Carolina today due to the massive swath of moisture training up that way today.
Oh yeah - only 2 more days til the start of the season. Everyone needs to get their predictions in on the Prediction Thread in the Storm Forums at least by 6/5.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
|
|
Hey, where is the prediction page you were talking about steve?
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
The most impressive thing on the sat loop to me right now is the spin associated with the low pressure system now located in Central Lousiana... The system may be trying to drift S-SSW towards the GOM... You get this a low pressure area of spinning convection like this in the GOM this time of year and anything is possible. That being said, a weak system like this is also possible to just dissipate over time, however, convection has been on the rise lately with the afternoon heating taking place... Pressures are 1008 mb near broad center.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
12 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 Major storms (Cat 3+)
2 US landfall hurricanes
1 US landfall major hurricane
1 Hybrid (wannabe that does not classify as tropical but we all agree should be)
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
It's a thread under Storm Forum:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=stormforum&Number=23&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
So my question yesterday that "could something happen" with that system easing itself into the GOM was not a dumb one? Good.
I've been vindicated. 
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
What, did you all take off with Frank P. and Rad and the models? 
Check out the loops from the storms around TX and LA...there is a rotation there. I was watching and you can definitely see that spin there. It will be interesting to watch what happens there and in the Caribbean the next few days.
Back to work. 
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
I hate to tell ya'll but this upper low that is being talked about looks like it will skirt along the Texas coast and never really get into the GOM. It looks to be moving SW and that would pretty much keep it scraping the coast. I certainly don't see anything happening with this one.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Idiot
|
Weather Witch
Unregistered
|
|
Looks like the Low is picking up some friends.
Remember the storm that grew and hung out in South America (BOC I think) last summer. Wouldn't mind a rain maker like that. 
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
Hey Colleen, Just got here , I was checking out the radar last night and you guys were getting pounded, My Weather radio went off about 5 times last night between 7 & 9 That sucker just sat right on top of you guys too and rained itself out . We didnt get nothing here in St Pete , The sea breeze just keeps it away from the coast, I witnessed a helluva light show last night towards the east.
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Witch,
It sure does look like it. There are plenty of friends, acquaintances and good old "BOC"'s out there for her to play with.
ShawnS,
You're probably right. Any model indication I could find for the 72 hour period shows just general low pressure on the East-central Mexican Coast. But it did rain 4 times here today. That doesn't happen too often.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
Pretty interesting loop of how the west coast sea breeze keeps the t-storms away from the western coast here in Florida. Then as it travels further inland {usually along I-75} It meets the east coast sea breeze and BAM !! Convection. Another vivd light show tonite, with some awesome cloud to cloud lightning streaking across the sky,and distant thunder rumbling ...... https://midds.nlmof.navy.mil/loops/FUS/SEUS4/default.htm ............also looks like some goodness coming off the TX. LA. coast
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
This is the ETA 48 hour 4-panel showing surface low just south of LA.
http://weather.unisys.com/eta/4panel/eta_pres_4panel.gif
NGM does about the same thing without much shower activity
http://weather.unisys.com/ngm/4panel/ngm_pres_4panel.gif
AVN @ 48 does pretty much the same thing
http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/48h/avn_pres_48h.gif
But it likes a 569 Low in the NE Gulf @ 120
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/avn/avn_cpres_h120.gif
NOGAPS, UKMET and MRF don't do much with the low.
The European shows the low initially, then weakens it (which is pretty much what the is doing).
http://www.met.tamu.edu/newmodels/ecmwf500_H_V_plot.gif
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
Hmmmm...... What do you think Steve? Looks as if something could get brewing.
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
NHC thinks the low is gonna spin into nothing. It'll probably brew up some daytime thunderstorms along the northern Gulf due to daytime heating, but other than that, I don't have any tropical predictions for it (rare for me). I was kind of running with Shawn on this one, figuring a broad area of lower pressure would end up on the Mexican Gulf Coast. The only problem with that theory is the strong upper level west winds in that area. Also, the upper low is at the southern end of what looks like a trof split to me. So it's really anyone's guess. What do you think about it Rad?
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
|
|
I dunno Steve wait and see what it does over the Gulf . If it sits there for a while with the diurnal convection, during the day lets see what it does at night .
--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
nothing happened today. oh yeah.. its still may. why don't i keep telling myself that?
noticed the has shifted its floater cam to the low off hatteras. i would think it rallying for subtrop, but the cool SST boundary is clear on ir channel 2 and pretty much killed that idea. my caribbean resurgence was shafted by lots of shear. and that little low off the florida coast the last few days has become a conformist and vanquished itself. so that leaves us with.. an upper low on the gulf coast.
well that will take forever to make something, so until it starts making a persistent nuisance of itself, i'll just let the gulf coast boys ooh and aah over it.
and i try not to show an east coast bias.. heh.
anyhow bastardi says the pattern will give us more opportunity in the days to come. i await not really expecting anything until he explains it better. as a meteorlogically minded jerry maguire would say, SHOW ME THE CONVECTION.
yes its may and nothing's happening.. but take heart, gray has his almost final word on the season tomorrow..TODAY, and a tom clancy book turned reworked screenplay turned movie is in theaters. should be some disturbing imagery involving an 11 kT nuke and a major u.s. city that i used to live next to. bring the kids. oh, and my kid brother graduates. everybody say: good job, sean.
well, life isnt all bad when there isnt a hurricane menacing, is it?
later all.
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Congrats to Sean. 29.76 here this morning with light winds out of the NE. Radar echoes are bringing coastal showers up from the S/SE this morning rather than the SW or WSW. It looks like the trof is heading pretty far SW, but the energy, convection and showers have moved into the NW Gulf. There are a few strong showers down over the Lafitte area headed this way. But hey, I still have an hour to sleep! L8R,
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
