joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Good morning to y'all. I see alot of people looking, but nobody talking, so I'll go ahead and jump back in after another 5 hour nap.
This is what I think I see this morning. One thing is Izzy sure does seem to be a cat4, but the just won't make the call. The pressure is 935MB and he's still a high cat3? Not likely. is also sticking to their forecast that they have been putting out since yesterday morning, nothing new or off-the-wall. Will LA evacuate the shores? IF Izzy makes a turn to the north, and IMO that's a huge IF, LA west could be the target. Just remember to listen to your local NWS statements. I think, and this is my opinion only, that Izzy may not make a ture turn to the north at all; he MAY get going NW at the end, but it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't happen. He's already had a couple of chances to get farther north then he is and he's passed on all of them. If Mitch ever had a brother, this could be him. Besides that, the turns him north after 48 hrs, and I've decided that today I'm not going to listen to anything the predicts after 48hrs. I'm declaring war on the , which has hit every point in the eastern GOM with Izzy at one time or another, and look where he still is.
Kyle looks about as good as I feel this morning. Man, somebody go get him a cup of mojo. Nobody seems to know what to do with him.
TD13 should be Lili at 11, no later than 5. Good cloud cover, convection seems to want to hang on. Strong TS, maybe cat1 taking tour of the islands by midweek. Close to PR. She may get into a fight with Haiti/DR, or Kyle, or both. To early to say if US in danger. Some models start to turn her north in 4-5 days, but how Kyle will go west and Lili turn north I don't see. She's moving pretty fast. My best friend in the the world today, the , slams her into Central America. Just to add a little personal exp., when I was a kid we got hit here in JAX by Dora, which got pushed almost due west by an interaction with a storm much like Kyle. Anything can happen.
Just my ealy thoughts. I reserve the right to completely wrong about everything today. Where did I put my coffee? Time to go to Dunkin Donuts.
Joe in Jax
Way to go Gators!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I have been looking at the AVN overlay from the Hawaiian Satellite source this morning and there is a 1028 high over the far west and then below it a 1012 high. We know that a high will merge into a low and I think that the timing on this merger is going to tell the tale. The problem will be if Isidore gets a chance to snuggle up to that 1004 in the Bay of Campechee first. If he does he may never come out and all will be lost for the next week. But, if that high merges in a timely fashion, it will once again be a gambler's paradise on this storm. My opinion and I am sticking to it!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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high moving in north izzy going to mex east gulf should be clear but izzy could stop then all bets are off but i dont see that mex hit
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Lower Cameron - like everywhere else, has it's own unique set of problems. You can't go east because of the ferry at Cameron, and 27 is one of the few routes north and is mostly a 2 lane until you get up to Carlys and South Lake Charles. Consider that tonight is the Equinox and tomorrow is the full moon, and there well may be some high astronomical tides the next 2-3 days.
Good luck if it's headed for ya'.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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izzy heads for the bay i hope someone gets some good pics of izzy at land fall down there see ya izzy
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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By the way, Izzy's now at 934MB, closed wall. Not a Cat4?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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look at the / / ukmet / i just said mex maybe not izzy is moving s/w now like the models show look at texas w/v loop trogh coming thrwe this could be what they see all three models close with in 350 miles or so
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mr jimmy
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Spring TX
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another problem is that now there are no hurricane shelters south of I-10 except those of "last resort". This was done since a slow 3 or fast 4 and 5's would bring massive flooding. Not sure I agree with this policy, but they expect everyone to evacuate. We are looking at 12-15 hrs. to get to Baton Rouge from our location.
Steve - if the storm comes your way, do you plan to evacuate to the Superdome, eat hot dogs, and maybe bring home some free furniture?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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No. My wife blows out for a 3. She's talking about taking a week to go visit her dad in Ohio. If I got stuck in town for a 5, I'd head over to the building where I work. I'm on the 4th floor which isn't so high up to meet the super strong winds, and if I close all the heavy office doors, I can hang out in the hallway. That's if it really, really looks bad as a high 4 or 5 come Wed.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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boys get on the w/v loop and look at texas the short wave is stronger than it was going to be winds in mex southwest models are going to be right but faster north then maybe east this is no wish look at w/v loop plus mike said same thing at his site loc weather man said short wave stronger than they thoght
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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What part of Ohio is your wife's dad from? My fiance's dad also lives in Ohio. Her dad lives in Euclid, just outside of Cleveland. Actually, he lives right on Lake Erie.By the way, I still think Izzy will be a Mexico problem. I just don't see him making that turn to the north. Even if he does he sure don't see him making that big of a turn where he would threaten the upper Texas coast.
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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My brother-in-law is from Euclid...small world
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Here is my rundown on the current storms:
Isidore
Isidore is very, very well defined this morning. Miles Lawerence stated the storm's structure perfectly this morning when he described the as "cloud tops impressively cold, symmetrical, and very large". Isidore should intensify to a category 4 once he gets away from the Yuctan. I'm placing all of my faith in 's forecast track at this time simply because I see no other scenario that is better than their's. At the same time, I've drawn a complete "blank" when it comes to track. With Isidore so strong and the status of the troughiness near the norther GOMEX so uncertain, I'm going to have to extend my threat area west. Let's say Cedar Key to New Orleans. Talk about a broad area of targets--this shows the great uncertainty with Isidore.
TD 13/Lili
I'm going to go with on intensity and track with this storm as well. A 80 or 85 knot hurricane in 72 hours is absolutely possible at this time. I agree with the track, as I said, through 72 hours. After that is when things start to get interesting. Some models turn what will be Lili north when she should be just NW of Puerto Rico. However, with Kyle possibly moving SW at 72 hours as well, this would be indicative of a ridge building in from the north. What the models could be picking up on is Kyle moving southwest at a more rapid rate after 72 hours, possibly as a hurricane. This could help to erode the ridge around 80 hours, possibly turning Lili NW and N up Florida's EC. Intensity is another issue. As I said before, I'm going with 's intensity forecast through 72 hours, but after that, big questions arise. The environment still looks to be favorable after 72 hours, but as always, Hispanola comes into play. Given the possible location and strength of Kyle around that time, Lili could be turning NW and avoiding Hispanola around this time. So, there is a possibility of a strong category 2 or category 3 hurricane approaching the Florida EC late next week. The islands are first on Lili's crosshairs though, so they need to get ready now.
Kyle
I'm not going to say anything until Kyle possibly becomes an issue in Lili's path. Could be a hurricane in a few days though.
Other areas
The wave east of the Bahamas is a bit more convective this morning, but it still remains very poorly organized. If this wave stays around for another 3-5 days, it is going to become an energy source for Kyle, or more likely, Lili.
The wave a few hundred miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands is well-defined, but lacks deep convection at this time. Being it will be in the wake of what could be a hurricane, any development would be slow.
Thoughts? Comments?
Kevin 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Don't let your guard down. We have a very serious threat of a land falling major hurricane. People around here are really not paying to much attention to it. This is how people get killed.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Isidore now looking like my picture to the left. Next weekend, the Florida folks may not be competing with the Tex/La folks as to who may get the storm. Major storms could be threatening both areas at the same time. Be careful what you wish for. What do you all think about this scenario?
Dolphins hex against the Jets ends today!!!! Only Florida pro football team still undefeated!!!!
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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if you are on the gulf coast look at the w/v loop in texas this is going to turn the storm it is sronger than they thoght it would be h to the north week get ready for the turn faster than models winds in mex are now out of southwest with short wave
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I talked about that in my post above. Take a look at it, that's my take on the two storms at this time. We may well have one of the busiest weather weeks on record in the South come late next week.
Kevin 
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Agree with your look at Izzy, other then I'll believe a turn north when I see it.
Enjoyed your look at Lili. See my post above. We are both having the same problem putting her out in the Atlantic with the fish for the same reason. I think Kyle might keep her a little further south than expected. Haiti/DR could decide her fate, but with her speed she may not really hang around in one place long enough to tear her up.
Don't know what to say about Kyle.
Very good post. By the way, the GDFL, LBAR, and any prediction I might make have been added to Pres. Bush's Axis of Evil as of this morning. 
Joe in JAX
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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He's from North Tonowanda, NY originally, but lives in Madison Township, OH a mile or so off Lake Erie also. That's about 30 miles NE of Cleveland. Been up there a few times to visit. Cleveland gets a bad rap, but it's a pretty cool place if you ask me.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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kevin what do you think about the wave coming threw texas how soon till the turn i dont think very long
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