F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 212 (Idalia) , Major: 212 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 212 (Idalia) Major: 212 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | >> (show all)
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
MOVEMENT
      #4907 - Sun Sep 22 2002 09:57 PM

Eye is definitely filling in. Storm did take a jog SE, but seems to have stalled now. Merida had a peak gust of 81 mph and a lowest pressure of 28.62". Pressure now rising there. It will be very interesting to see what the NHC says at 11 pm, since the storm has changed direction, moved inland, and seems to have weakened. All of which were not predicted. It seems like this all occurred after a few people had just given the NHC a great pat on the back for what they have predicted. Hope it wasn't a jinx.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: MOVEMENT
      #4908 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:09 PM

I think when the eye filled in it gave the illusion that the system took a jog to the SSE, but it was only an illusion based on the eye filling in from the NW to the SE.... in my opinion..

looking at the future forecast track just shown by TWC, it does not look good for the northern gulf coast area...

RIght now, if this thing DOES GO NORTH.. I would speculate anywhere from TX/LA line to Pensacola... .



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Hey Frank..
      #4909 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:13 PM

what site are you using?, post a link if you don't mind. I was looking at that water vapor loop that was linked in a post above and you can see the upper low over central Texas dropping south, I assume this was the one that the TPC mentioned in the 5pm disc. I guess if it continues southward, this is what might help pull Izzy northward. The 00Z model runs still look interesting for the upper Texas coast/SW La area. I just got back from Galveston, spent the night at a beach house the inlaws have rented for the week at Crystal Beach. The water was as calm as I have ever seen it yesterday when we arrived, but today the surf was picking up. Needless to say the inlaws are quite concerned about their vacation being cut short. Dang house had no cable and I couldn't hook the laptop up to the net so I'm just now trying to get back up to speed on whats going on.

Houstontracker


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: MOVEMENT
      #4910 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:14 PM

Those models that I posted were intialized as of 7:00 p.m. which means they DO indicate where Izzy is now. That being the case and with Izzy stopping the south movement, I guess maybe they are for real.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore Close to the Yucatan future Still Uncertain
      #4911 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:19 PM

IF IZZY SITS LONG COULD GO NORTH MOVE EVERYTHING EAST WE WILL SEE

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
HT... per your request
      #4912 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:26 PM

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conusir.html

one of the best tracking sites around



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: HT... per your request
      #4913 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:36 PM

Best guess as to the center of the storm based on latest GOES IR is 20.94N and 89.41W...... surprise..... basically no change in the past hour...

equates to approximately .02 degrees S and .02 degrees W overall movement...... it's starting to get hard to figure out the exact center on IR as it fills in, so the margin of error increases....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rickinmobile
Unregistered




go west..young man...
      #4914 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:38 PM

look for a contunuation of the westward motion...slightly north...again...it will soon begin the parabolic loop of destruction, mayhem, and wailing and gnashing of teeth...

d-day..in about 4-5 days....lights out babeeee


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: HT... per your request
      #4915 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:40 PM

Frank, my gut is telling me if he's coming off the Yucatan it's going to be NW. If he's going to make a move, it's now. Either that or Yucatan just got Mitched.

Joe in JAX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
NoviceMS
Unregistered




Re: Hello, Frank
      #4916 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:41 PM

Hello, Frank. I am in Pascagoula. When and what are you planning to do? I would just like a little more insight than what I am getting on the local TV stations. Thanks for the info. I have enjoyed looking in at all the posts. I feel so ignorant will all this knowledge that is being spread around! Ignorant, but interested.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Rick
      #4917 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:55 PM

I don't mind you saying that it will be a major hurricane or that it will come to you every time, but it sounds like you are kind of making fun of this situation. There are alot of people in Cuba and on the Yucatan that would love to trade places with you right now. I'm not bashing you, but I even know when it's time to get serious. Just be cool about it.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Evening NoviceMS
      #4918 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:55 PM

Nice to hear from my neighbor to the east. If I was you I would make sure you have your plan together as to what you would do depending on the situation at hand.

What I do is not important, its what you will do that is... hey when it comes to hurricanes we all learn something from each experience...

I'm an old hurricane veteran and most likey will foolishly ride out the storm... this is for a plethora of reasons, one of which I've been through so many they really don't scare me anymore...

However, I would not recommend for anyone to ride out a storm, this is a personal preference that applies to me.... and not to my family.... and they support me on this decision

If you are in an area that gets an evacuation notice... then leave... period... if you are not required to evacuate, and you live in a VERY well built home, far away from any chance of flooding, and you don't have any pines trees in your yard, then you may opt to stay... but chances are if you do, and you've never been in a major storm before, I would bet money that you will regret that decision....

If we get a Cat 5, unlikely I might add, and there are predictions of tidal surges of 20 or greater I will probably go shelter where I work, Stennis Space Center... I have an office on a rocket test stand which is built of two feet reinforced concrete walls... probably the safest building on the entire MS coast... bar none...

Just make sure you are ready when the time comes to act on whatever decision you make, and one more important thing... if you do evacuate don't wait till the last minute as the traffic situation on the coast could be a nightmare....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
unforseen (except maybe by the gfdl)
      #4919 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:57 PM

ohh man. sucker is just sitting there. something will eventually push it off the yucatan, but it could be a whole lot weaker than it was earlier.
usually a stop like this means the steering currents have deadened and are about to change. so i'd guess net movement over the next 24hrs should be northwest.
theres still plenty of warm water to be had and an excellent upper environment, but maybe a lot less of a storm will emerge from the yucatan than what landed on it.
by the way, think maybe theyre getting some flooding with the hurricane sitting on top of them tonight?
HF 0300z23september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: HT... per your request
      #4920 - Sun Sep 22 2002 10:58 PM

Cancun radar confirms this. Seems to be drifting south, with a slight west component. On radar eye appears all closed up.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Evening NoviceMS
      #4921 - Sun Sep 22 2002 11:10 PM

FRANK, it sounds like you and your home are perched for a once in a lifetime event...if the storm passes in your area.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick in Mobile
Unregistered




Shawn
      #4922 - Sun Sep 22 2002 11:11 PM

would you like a little cheese with that whine?

it ain't heading to tx...it's heading toward New Orleans, Mobile, and Pensacola...gonna take a swipe at all of them..course...now that it has stalled, it will weaken, to a 1-2....eventually go back over the water.... Interestingly, they had a report on TV tonight on what a Hurricane would do to New Orleans, and the Saints are 3-0...makes perfect sense to me Isidore will visit...if Izzy stalls long enough, Lilly will come join him, and we'll have a double wammy!

I hope this language isn't too offensive for you Shawn. I have been through a strong category 3, and it is no joke...there is weeping and gnashing of teeth...PERIOD


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
GOOD GRIEF
      #4923 - Sun Sep 22 2002 11:13 PM

Just heard Dr. Lyons say the NHC is expecting the system to eventually turn to the west, then NW, then N... but then what he then said was CHILLING.... that the NHC expects it to regain strength to 145 mph in 72 hours and be heading in a northly direction, acceleratiing in forward speed as it impacts land... which is what would be expected if it is picked up by a strong trough.... a strong CAT 4... going NORTH.... geesh, this is one prediction that I hope the NHC is way off on....

If.... IF..... IF ..... IF (did I say if) this comes to fruition...
THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS GANG for the people on the northern gulf coast....

and if the NHC's prediction is right, then people along the GC needs to start seriously implementing their hurricane plans early this week, if not tomorrow... if this thing even looks like its going to turn N, people need to start taking action pretty quick...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: GOOD GRIEF
      #4924 - Sun Sep 22 2002 11:17 PM

Frank,
I think you are right. When Andrew came through here I forced my family to get supplies days before the storm was predicted to hit Miami. I just had funny feeling that I was making the right decision. Hopefully the folks in LA/TX/FL/MS have the funny feeling tomorrow.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Evening NoviceMS
      #4925 - Sun Sep 22 2002 11:20 PM

<<FRANK, it sounds like you and your home are perched for a once in a lifetime event...if the storm passes in your area. >>

Actually Justin I've had my once in a life time event with Camille.... I think someone else is going to get Izzy... at least I hope... just wouldn't be fair for MS Coast to get a strong Cat 4 storm.... right now, if I had to pick a spot I picked somewhere west of New Orleans.... of course that prediction of mine, just like the models, will change over time....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick In Mobile
Unregistered




Re: GOOD GRIEF
      #4926 - Sun Sep 22 2002 11:21 PM

I have that funny feeling, but I think all of us do...however, I have seen what Opal did...it was a little depression down in the Bay of Campeche....got to cat 5 status....and just before land fall in Mobile...veered right, hit Pensacola as a cat 3...and we got 40 MPH winds...no rain.....but 12 hours before that...the Hurricane center had Mobile at ground zero, cat 4 or 5....talk about puckering up....

just goes to show ya...that all they have to do is miss by a little...

this one is gonna be a big one though...much bigger than Opal.....



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 26 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *
Topic views: 44433

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center