Anonymous
Unregistered
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Huh ????
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Interesting...Isidore is done weakening as far as Bastardi is concerned. Intensity should balloon once he gets over water if he is correct.
Lili has become much more concentrated over the past hour...probably a hurricane early tomorrow. Bastardi also alluded to two things occuring with Lili:
1. Goes into Gulf (oh boy, here we go again)-if I had to elaborate on this I would say Lili would be E. GOMEX problem if she were to get in.
2. Moves very slowly waiting for next trough amplification.
Either one isn't good for Florida. Flooding possible over the next few days then a possible hurricane...a forecaster's hellish nightmare and a storm tracker's dream.
Kevin
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Interesting stuff...just got the new 18Z AVN and it is further east and a touch quicker than before...bringing him in around the mouth of the Mississippi and the LA/MS state line around midnight Thurs AM...and don't be surprised if the track is further shifted east over time...
Boy, my timing was off, but my Ft Walton call is looking pretty good right now...
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Jason Kelley
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Jason, would you care to give us your thoughts on Lili?
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Anonymous
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Hey Jason Its Kyle from Pensacola it looks as though we might get something if this storm decides to ever come off the Yucatan. Im guessing a pretty strong cat 2 now maybe. I think the storm will move north instead of northwest an then maybe alittle ne till it gets to around the area east of New Orleans. What do u all think?
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Thanks alot Kevin. My hope is the predicts a direct hit here in Jacksonville. Then I know that I'll be safe, because it won't come within 500 miles of me. 
Our rain chance here for the 4 days is 60,60,70,and 70%. We are getting pinched between the effects of Izzy, a cold front stalled right above us, and the prospects of Lili coming into the area. Really need to find my raincoat. We are by no means dry up here. Whem I cut my grass yesterday, I was surprised how much moisture was in the ground. Anything above 10 inches of rain over the next week would be a small disaster in itself, the ground is that wet already.
Joe in Jax
Pres. Bush Axis of evil: Iraq, LBAR,
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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If you believe in the , it's gonna be another GOM storm...I want to wait a bit before I make a call on Lili, get some of that GOOOOOD Gulfstream IV data into the models to firm them up, and to get Lili to slow down a bit....if she misses the trof, it's gonna be hard to keep her away from FL/the GOM.
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Jason Kelley
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Don't be surprised if the track of Izzy moves East (significantly) over the next 36 hrs...
NO, right now, is as far west as I'd be willing to put this storm, until I see a definatlive NW motion....which ain't happening right now.
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Jason Kelley
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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UH OH !! Well, I said my DH (Dear Hubby or Dumb Hubby..... just depends)  would board up the place when Jason Kelley said to, so he's on his way to Home Depot to buy plywood. Now what I want JK to tell me, is how strong is Izzy going to be when he gets here ??? Best guess ?
Edited by mbfly (Mon Sep 23 2002 11:58 PM)
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I'm starting to think Izzy is going to just die out before it ever gets off of the Yucatan. The winds are now down to 45mph and it is still stationary.But you all keep watching the models jump further and further east while Izzy continues to sit on the Yucatan and die.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Tough call, although thanks for the confidence in my forecast...wish you'd tell my bosses that!! 
Intensity is gonna be a tough call, but I think Izzy will be a hurricane again with 24 hrs of the center getting back over the Gulf (assuming it does so in the next 18-24 hrs, which I think it will)...the forward speed component is a strong variable in this, and it is all over the place in the model solutions...
My best guess? Solid cat 2...maybe a cat 3...but more likely a 2,...100 mph winds.
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Jason Kelley
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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The next question should be....when will Hurricane Watches/Warnings be posted for the Gulf Coast? Anyone with thoughts?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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what is the chance it just dies over the yucatan?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I think models are basically useless on a stationary storm... for that fact, maybe models are useless period... they certainly have been relative to forecasting this storm as no models forecast 72 hours out have even come close to being right.....18Z GFLD has Izzy going inland just west of NO at ~92W in 60 hours.... I don't know how many times the MS coast has been forecasted to get Izzy from various models, at least 3 or 4 over the past several days... as has several other locations... models are really starting to piss me off...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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If the track hold (or shifts east) with no change in forward speed, I 'd say watches go up at the 11 PM adv tomorrow night, and warnings the next morning at 11, maybe as late as the 5pm
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Chance of the Southern Half of Florida being hit by Lili: 0%
Take a look at the latest run..puts Lilly right in our backyard at the end of its forecast period which means we are safe.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02092323
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I feel your pain, my Golden Eagle brother....
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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The last 2 anons were me...I got logged off somehow...
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Jason Kelley
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Tell those models what you really think of them, Frank!
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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I must agree with all 3 of your last posts Jason. Excellent as always. More thoughts:
1. You're right, the trough misses Lili (probably will) and Florida and the E. GOMEX are going to be staring in the face of another nasty storm by the weekend.
2. Isidore's track could shift east in a major manner, either way some eastward adjusments to the forecast should be made.
3. Isidore won't dissipate given it's low central pressure. It would have to stay over land for another 24 hours...not likely at this point.
Kevin
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