Steve 777
Unregistered
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Hi all! ok I've decided to add my bold predictions to this site. I've visited every day for 2 years and and this is my favorite. I live in St Cloud Fl and and have been wishing a tropical storm or hurricane here with 20 inches of rain for 3 years lol(sick huh?) glad to meet ya Happy hurricane season!!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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OK Steve 777....uh.......what is your prediction? OH BTW, I will be right across the Tarmac from the DYNO-Mat weenies since we do or flight testing at Melbourne International Airport, how ironic! I can remember now the foolish statements and unsubstantiated rumors about dyna-gel I posted here a couple years ago and had to sheepishly retract because no one else heard of it and thought I was nutz. Well they got that part right. God does have a sense of humor!! I'll probably see the Dyna-Crew every day now
@%#$&* Cheers!!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I'm sticking with 13/8/3. Analog years do not bear out this many storms so if I am wrong, I am likely on the high side. I'm putting the bullseye on the entire SE US with a special emphasis on Mobile to Cedar Key and Miami up to Hatteras. A late season hybrid may threaten the VA-NJ coast but get kicked out. I am calling for 3 named storms - 2 hurricanes in the Gulf this year. Overall, the US gets hit with at least 3 landfalls classified at least as TD's.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Bruce
Weather Guru
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Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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I Heard on CNN Today that the US has not had 3 years without a landfalling Hurricane in history. I think they were saying that 2000 and 2001 did not have any. Is this true? If it is true then one of us may have to deal with a hurricane this year.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Bruce:
It is indeed true that the U.S. did not have a landfalling hurricane for the past two years. The statistical odds of going two years without a U.S. landfall is less than one-tenth of one percent. Although records eventually fall, it seems like almost a sure thing that the U.S. will have a landfalling hurricane this year - probably two.
Cheers,
ED
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I think the most likely 2 spots for anything to get going in the next couple of weeks are the Southern Gulf/BoC and the NW Caribbean extending upwards into the Bahamas. While the upper low in the Gulf is starting to fire up some convection again, it is undetermined as to whether it will ever become a weather maker for the US. If so, the Panhandle is the region most likely to be affected. If the upper low moves out, look for some convection to try to get cooking in the extreme southern Gulf by Thursday or Friday and then again 3-4 days later. If the upper low hangs around the Western Gulf or the TX/MX coast, it is likely to keep anything from getting organized in the southern Gulf.
Steve
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Rad...I did the poll just for you!  Although, I'm not sure I did it right. LOL..
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Relax Shawn. It goes all the way to the end of November. There is not some magic formula that appears and shouts out: IT'S JUNE 1ST!!! ALL HURRICANES PLEASE REPORT TO YOUR STATIONS IMMEDIATELY!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Looks good to me Colleen..!!... 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Well, so far, it's a whopping 100% that it should not be used.
Man this day is going by sloooowwwwww. The kids are fighting, the dog keeps getting into trouble and I want Calgon to take me away. Or somebody. Anybody. (well..) 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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An area of convection in the NW Carribeam Sea has persisted through out the day,there also seems to be a ridge of high pressure building over it,there is no low pressure circulation at this time,however this area needs to be watched closely over the next few days for further development.
Here We Go
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Ya I see it Grey, Lets see if it persists thru the night time hours.
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It looks like flow from the ULL in the Gulf is helping draw up some of the moisture from the Pacific side across Southern Mexico which in turn is helping to enhance convection in the broad lower pressure off of Nicaragua. The ULL is either stationary or moving slightly east of due North. This may help enhance ridging over the NW Caribbean which would leave it favorable for development over the next 2-3 days if the convection holds up.
Steve
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Convection in the northwest caribbean may be the only game in town for the next couple of days, if it persists... Climatelogically, it's in a prime area for tropical development during the month of June... We've had approximately 63 June storms in the past 113 years so that leaves us with about a 56% change of a storm this month.
I can remember some past years back that we would not get any development to speak of during June or July... IMO the real season begins around the middle of August... Things usually crank up big time when the Cape Verdi storms develop from waves off the African coast..
If we have an average season as most of the weather experts predict, then probably something should develop in the next month or two... just have to wait and see
I still think the New Orleans area is way past due and it's my prime target of the season...
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Steve 777
Unregistered
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15 named storms 9 hurricanes 4 major cat 3+ 2 hit florida one from gulf. dyno workers developing a super glue for faults to prevent earthquakes.. 
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Hey Frank, I think Narlin's wiil get hit by a Cat 5 !!!!! JK ........ hope not buddy . You can always come over to the suncoast with the hounds , and drink a few cold ones !!!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Frank P,
>>I still think the New Orleans area is way past due and it's my prime target of the season...
I caught that reference in an earlier thread. I forgot to respond because I was probably drunk. I appreciate any "English" you can throw to make that target a reality. These last few seasons have been boring except the minor flooding we got from Allison and the major flooding we got from 500 miles away TS .
I didn't want to get overly optimistic this year, though I do think we'll get a threat at least. My target (for the Gulf) is Mobile over to Cedar Key. I think you guys on the MS Coast stand a pretty good chance of at least being affected by something.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Rad, thanks for the offer... the hound dawgs like pizza with their beer, I'll bring the pizza....
Steve, law of averages eventually will catch up with Nawlins. Last direct hit with a major was Betsy in 65, what's that, 37 years without a storm of any significant...
Let's see, Camille in 69 came really close but slice off to the east (although the mouth of the river area got pounded), Elena in 85 kinda headed over that way but came up short hitting Biloxi, Andrew was a close call but didn't cause all that much damage to the city as it went off more to the west, and Georges in 98 scared the stew out of the city... but also hit Biloxi... and I might have missed a few as I'm trying to recall from memory... but I'm right on with regards to majors...
N.O. has been dodging bullets for many years... Yeah they had some minor storms , some Cat 1s (Bob, Juan) and tropical rain makers over the years but who hasn't! Real significant hurricane damage from storm surge and wind starts with the strong Cat 2 storms... Something Nawlins has not experienced in almost 40 years...
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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He discusses years since 1950 when there were 9, 10, 11, or 12 storms and correlating high-landfall ratio as compared to other years. He doesn't give you his landfall forecast (that comes out Wed.), but he says this will be "An interesting year." He plots the tracks from 10-12 seasons and the primary hits are TX, LA, FL and NC. Very interesting take.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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