Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Oh yeah - he mentions that last year he targeted Florida, but this year it is going to be interesting. I can't wait until Wed. to see how his prediction stands up to mine.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index?nav=meteo&type=jbs
There's the link. Look below Joe's Videos on the right hand side of the page if you are unfamiliar with his website.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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I think any year Florida is a prime candidate for a storm,SE Florida alone has been hit more than any whole state in the U.S.,reason being that it is a peninsula and storms can approach from virtually any direction,I'm curious to see what Bastardi forecast myself,he might say the Carolinas are vulnerable by looking at those maps he displayed on the Meteorlogical Disco,but never count out Florida.
I'm sure you all have seen this but check it out anyway
http://geocities.com/thetropics/shores/7311/hitus.html
Look at SE Fla.'s hits compared to the other regions
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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That link's data only goes up to 1995 but you can pretty much see my point,and you can add *GEORGES* & IRENE to that total.
*(I hesitate to include GEORGES but he did pass directly over Key West and did some pretty good damage to the lower Keys and I got some intense wind up here in Miami)*
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Looks like the great state of Louisiana is up there as well! But you're right, Florida is due to get clocked sticking out there like that. Though one could argue that that's why Florida is still there, cause most go around it. Nah. The term hurricane alley comes to mind, but haven't seen one go thru the straights in a while, unless you count Georges and Michelle. BTW, three interesting areas out there, well at least two. The first in the NW Caribbean, but shear is still moving the convection in a flow from SW to NE. The second is in the western Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and scattered throughout. Finally, and I know it's early, there is an impressive wave at about 5N/25W which, if it were July, I might get excited about. However, it could be interesting if it holds together until it reaches the Caribbean. Nuff said, Cheers!!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I agree with what you're saying Greyman. But TX is also broken up by regions, so SE FL is not actually ahead of the state of TX. You guys are around the same as LA and NC, and we in LA haven't had anything major since 95 to count anyway.
Here was his exact quote: "Last year we targeted Florida, and of course Florida was affected by 4 different storms, fortunately no major hurricanes. This year, though (and he smiles and raises his eyebrows), is a little bit different. And while I agree with the lesser number, it's going to be an interesting year as far as landfalls go."
So yeah, Florida is always under the gun - and not just SE FL. In my trouble spots for this year (as they concern Florida), I targeted NW FL down to Cedar Key off the peninsula and the whole SE Atlantic Coast. What I may have screwed up is by starting my red area at Mobile. It well may be that I need to include the MS Coast (as alluded to in one of my preliminary forecast discussions in another thread) and the East 1/2 of the LA Coast - maybe to Morgan City or so. My forecast is definitely west of Dr. Gary Gray of Millenium Weather, but it may not be far enough so.
Still, it's nice to see the predictions that don't just say "everything's curving out to sea" or "we'll have below-normal storms this year". It makes for some excitement here in the early part of the 2002 season.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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When I watched Bastardi's meteorological map discussion today, I found one very intersting fact about the 9/10/11/12 named stormed seasons. It seems that when we have the majority of the storms form west of 65W, is when these types of season turn into major East Coast landfall years, El Nino, La Nina, neutral. 
So, for all of the hurricane landfall nuts out there, if you want major U.S. action this year (including East Coast landfalls), look for storms that form west of 65W.
For example, look at 2000. We really had Debby, which was a storm that formed west of 65W (I think, I'll check that later to verify) and it was a major threat to South Florida, but was destroyed because it's circulation outraced it's convection (2000 became famous for that little trick).
Then we go to 2001. We had the majority of the Atlantic storms form east of 65W. And guess what? They all recurved.
And finally, this year could really test the theory that La Nina years see more U.S. landfalls, especially on the East Coast. It also looks as if the Caribbean will be much more active than the East Atlantic. If this is true, then Bastardi could really be on to something. 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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"we in LA haven't had anything major since 95 to count anyway"
Steve, I'm assuming that you are counting the Opal near miss for LA as the 95 storm, I don't recall anthing else that year... I would have thought Georges in 98 was more of a near miss for LA, esp the N.O area, than Opal was in 95.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Frank P,
No, I wasn't counting Opal or Erin from that year. I was referring to the list that Greyman provided which showed landfalling hurricanes by region between 1900 and 1995. He added a couple more for SE Florida, but I could not do it for LA because we haven't had anything. Actually Hermine went right over the city bringing us 15 mph gusts (yippee!), but its convection was mostly in AL and FL, and the list only started at Cat-1 anyway.
Opal did bring us north winds of 40-50 mph along Lake Pontchartrain, but it was sunny and hot otherwise.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Correction! I don't know if the eye crossed Plaquemines Parish near the mouth of the river, but there was a "D" hurricane somewhere in the late 90's that might actually count. It was the one that emptied Mobile Bay and brought 36" of rain just offshore from Dauphin Island.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Steve, I just misunderstood, got it now...
Interesting to see what Joe B. has to say on Wednesday, right or wrong at least he's not afraid to go out on a limb to make his predictions..
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Thanks for the link Steve - indeed interesting - and an analog approach that I often use myself. Since it seems to be a popular theme (with good reason), I went back and captured a small piece of my first post on the Storm Forum which seems to support this line of thought and might be of interest to those who do not visit the other forums:
"The tropical jetstream which had extended from Central America to the Bahamas has become more zonal in its flow and has moved east and south to lower latitudes in the central tropical Atlantic. This all points to a rather quiet Cape Verde season and a much more active Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Season. It also increases the risk for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf and southeast U.S. coastlines. (original post 05/02/02)" Haven't seen anything yet which would alter my thinking on this, except that the weak El Nino has indeed returned and might reduce the total numbers to 11 - its just arriving too late to have too much of an impact on this season. If we get a June storm, I'll stick with 12, otherwise 11.
Cheers,
ED
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Map of Hurricane strikes could be broken down another way based on areas that could fall under a possible hurricane warning zone, and not just by states.
North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia - 44 storms, 15 major
Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama - 43 storms, 23 major
West coast of Florida - 42 storms, 16 major
East coast of Florida, Georgia - 40 storms, 11 major
Texas - 36 storms, 15 major
(All other states from Virginia to Maine - 41 storms, 14 major
Interesting to note that the northern gulf coast has experienced more major storms that any of the other areas as broken down above.
No doubt the state of Florida with its two coasts is by far at the greatest risk for a landfalling hurricane as the total strikes for the pensula is 77 storms with 27 majors.
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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Hey Steve,you are absolutely correct about Texas,I did'nt see that till after,but overall SE Fla. is still up there and that statistic is pretty amazing considering that SE Fla. really is'nt that big and please excuse my bias but living here in Miami,I expect to be hit every year as I'm sure all of us Hurricane fanatics do  , but in reality even though there are areas more vulnerable than others,anyone from Texas to New England can get hit any given year, it all depends on where the High Pressures & troughs & and all the things that steer the storms are at the time,I mean I've talked about how many Hurricanes have affected SE Fla., go up the coast to NE Fla. & they've only had 9 in the same period of time,& yeah I saw the wave out there in the Atlantic & it sure does look impressive for this time of year,did'nt see one like that last year till late July or early Aug.& Kevin that is true what a strange season 2000 was it seemed that almost every storm had that problem you spoke of lets hope that does'nt happen this year.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Steve,
The "D" storm you referred to was Cat 1 Danny in 1997. Eye passed about 30 miles or so south of Biloxi. We didn't have any storm effects to speak of, this was a major league rain maker for Mobile though.
Here is a very interesting storm track map for those who have not seen it yet.
http://www.angelfire.com/fl4/eastcoasttropicalwea/trackitnow.htm
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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I was in Mobile for Danny. It was a strange situation. It stalled in Mobile Bay for a day or so. Actually strengthened a little bit. Went from 75mph to 80 while in the bay. It also dumped over 30 inches of rain on Dauphin Island.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Greyman - no problem. I wasn't pointing TX out in any way to be facetious, just noticed it after you posted the spreadsheet. I'm like you, I want one every year too.
Ed - Thanks for the bit on the southern jet. I hadn't actually even looked at that yet. I based my earlier post and possible resulting tracks off of a disagreement I have with with Dr. Gary Gray who believes the position of the Atlantic Ridge this year to be such that most storms are directed toward the Outer Banks and then out to sea. I'm basing my prediction of an Atlantic Ridge that either is just at the US East Coast or a few hundred miles into the Continental US off of observations and off of the pattern that appears to be setting up for this summer with a mean trof centered somewhere between 90 and 95 west. This should allow steering of anything below 24N and beyond west of 75W to the WNW, NW and N until it would theoretically reach the western periphery of that ridge. I might just be blowing smoke - wouldn't be the first time - but I think I'm going to be right on this one. Of course the ridge will ebb and flow, so how its steering mechanisms come into play obviously depends on a given moment in time.
Frank P - Danny - that was it. We got some rain from it, but nothing to write home about. It was weird how it just sat in Mobile Bay and actually emptied it. That's probably not a first, but it's the first time I've ever heard of such a thing there.
I checked the cool storm plotter link you posted and it did show that Danny crossed LA above the Mouth. It was close, but we didn't see any effects outside of a few dark clouds with some rain. If memory serves me right, we got about 2" or so here in the City - then again, it was 5 years ago so that might be +/-.
Been an enjoyable day at FLH.com today. Nice to see the excitement perking back up.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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This was my original dispute with Gary Gray's forecast:
>>Personally, I think the Bermuda will nose into the US a little more than he's giving it credit for, so even though he's calling for fairly far western atlantic recurvature toward the Outer Banks, I think the risk for the SE US Coast is a little higher than he's going with.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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This has been a great day here on this site,its good to know that there are many other people that feel the same about these incredible storms and love to experience their amazing force,but I would like to say that in no way do I wish destruction and harm to anyone,but it is an act of nature that has been going on for millions of years and it is awesome, I'M sure everyone here would agree.
I would rather be hit by 10 Hurricanes this year, than have to experience another September 11.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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No argument from me. The southern jet has actually moved further east in the Atlantic. Anything coming off of the African west coast in the next couple of months will meet up with some rather significant shear. I'd anticipate that some of the low-level waves will remain intact, but I wouldn't expect them to amount to much until they get near 60W. The is also running about 3 degrees further south than one would expect at this time of year - probably a direct correlation to the strength of the Azores-Bermuda High. In April, Bettye and I were cruising the north coast of South America. In Venezuela the rain was so heavy that we just remained on board. That same day, Bonaire got 4 inches of rain - 20 percent of their annual total in one day - almost unheard of down there. Water temp was 82 degrees! The large wave that came off of Africa a few days ago is simply too far south to spin up, but it could mean another wet period for northern S.A. As we've seen over the past couple of years, certain patterns can take a long time to change, but I've seen enough already this year to believe that the pattern has indeed changed. An overly active season - no, but a dangerous season for the Gulf and Southeast U.S. - yes. The pattern in place for each particular storm determines the threat area, so if the ridge should weaken as a storm makes the turn, then the threat shifts northward to the Carolinas and New England. If the ridge holds strong - well, thats why I've got the pre-drilled plywood - sure hope that I don't have to use it (so does my son - he'll be the one who'll have to put it up)
Cheers,
ED
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