Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Hey Colleen , your thinking of Phillips CH 28 . anyhoo, the GOM looks like a big ole mess huh? Nothing gonna happen there . Just pump up a bunch of moisture here in drought stricken Florida . Where we need the rain. Been quite a gray day here on the Suncoast . Next 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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the central gulf is looking somewhat interesting. this has all the appearance of one of those systems that will be clobbered by shear, but occasionally of these systems does make it through. i dont know how much is going on at the surface but at least at the mid levels there is some banding at the western edge of the cloud mass. maybe something is trying to fester inside the small shelter strip at the center of the upper trough.
invest 92L, huh? its predecessors failed to do anything, and this one looks like another early season failure. according to the models this area will remain disturbed for a few days, so it does have plenty of time to get its act together.
right now i give it 10% of becoming something in the next 36hrs. doubt the shear will let up.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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notice the swirls kicking up on the western edge of the big trough out near bermuda. some are at lower latitude and over warm enough water... and i remember in 1999. yeah i know its probably nothing, but chances out there are just as good as they are in the gulf.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Upper low in GOM does look rather pitiful tonight but check out the IR pix and the deep convection exposion on the Yucatan Penisula.
Lowest pressure in the area of disturbed weather in the central GOM was 1009 mb from a ship report around 26N and 90W, however, pressures were falling from most of the bouy and ship reports...
Max wind gusts was 23 knots from bouy located at 26N and 86W. SSTs in the GOM running at 80 to 81 degrees, warm enough....
Will this system do anything? Awww probably not, but I'd like to see a at least three inches of rain out of it on the MS coast...
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Seems like the is keeping a closer eye on it tonight.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Yeah Cane, ran a couple of test models on the area in the GOM but neither do anything with the system... at least they are looking at it...
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Ya aint chit gonna come from that mess . just some good ole fashion rainfall . >>>>>R.A.D ....FDG .. 
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Everything is dying off again tonight.There is just way too much shear out there for anything to get going. I said that the first storm wouldn't be until July and I will stick with that. Maybe by then the upper air patterns will be more in favor of development..I do hope that at least some of you all that really need the rain will get some out of this; that is about all that will come from it. 
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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SWIFT , SILENT , & DEADLY. ..F0CKING , DECANDENT , GENERATION . I DIDNT GO TO COLLEGE. I WENT TO WAR ........ RECON .
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Frank P, thanks for the heads up today on the Bastardi T.U. I went in to work last night at 11:30 so I was too zombiefied to even click on anything this morning.
My other post must have died when I submitted it, but the shear ain't that strong right now and will be pulling north over the southern plains in 48 hours. Here's a link:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif
It's the waiting game I guess.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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NHC discussion this morning indicates that a surface low may be forming around 25N and 90W
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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THIS IS PART OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
MARINE...WILL FOLLOW ETA/MESO-ETA CLOSELY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH
SLACKENS WINDS AND SHIFTS THEM TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OUR MARINE ZONES.
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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I know its early but the waves coming of the African coast are very impressive for this time of the year,if this is any indication of whats to come later this season, its going to be an active one.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Okay, guys...don't laugh. But I have a question. At what heights is an ULL, a MLL and LLC? I try to read that maps, but it's hard for me to figure this out. You would have thought by now that I would KNOW THIS, but I just keep struggling along with it. Any help would surely be appreciated. Also, what maps would I go to find this information?
Don't get me wrong...once I see a LLC, I know what it is. It's just trying to tell the difference between a ULL and MLL.
Thanks! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Colleen hope this helps. Check out the link.Gary
ANSWER:
Most people are familiar with the midlatitude surface low-pressure systems that march across the country over several days, usually from west to east. By definition, a low occurs at any point on a horizontal surface where the pressure is less than at any surrounding point.
In a well-developed surface low, the wind tends to spiral in toward the center--counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere--propelled by the pressure gradient, i.e., the difference in pressure between the center of the low and a point well removed from the center. The stronger the pressure gradient, the stronger the winds that spiral toward the center.
An upper-level low is merely a low well above the surface, say, at an altitude of 10,000 or 20,000 feet. Accompanied by a closed wind circulation that is sometimes nearly circular, these lows tend to move more slowly than wavelike disturbances in the westerlies, and they usually have a surface low underneath them. Weather around upper-level lows is usually inclement. In summer, upper-level lows help spawn thunderstorm development, primarily because they are accompanied by cold air aloft, which contributes to atmospheric instability.
http://www.weatherwise.org/qrindex.html
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thank you, Gary! I put the link in "My Favorites" so I can refer back to it when needed. You are a sweetheart. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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Check out this interesting link & story.
Sounds far fetched but interesting none the less.
http://www.discovery.com/stories/science/hurricanes/hurricanes.html
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Goes Visible today shows a better signature in the Gulf than at any time so far this summer. All the convection is to the north and east of the center, but we've had several bands on shore today that aren't seabreeze related. They are all moving SE to NW or ESE to WNW and training in places. The city hasn't seen that much rain, but we're in the clouds today and I'd say the wind speed is probably 8-12mph I checked all the buoys and could find ESE, ENE, E, and SE winds above and to the right of the circulation. I ran across a NE wind near a buoy off the TX/LA coast, but I can't find anything with a westerly component. I didn't check any ship reports from the Central Gulf because I don't think there are any W winds yet. This is the buoy with the highest continuous windspeed.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=burl1
My money is on a Tropical Depression forming sometime tonight or tomorow. And while there is a sprinkle of wishcasting thrown in, I am basing this off of observations. The only other thing I can't find is lowering pressure.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Steve, I don't know if a depression is going to form or not but I think there could be an incubation process taking place right now. I also agree that its signature, although not that impressive, is as good as its been thus far. Looking at the latest IR loops it appears the convection is slowly on the increase this afternoon.
Pressure on the SW MS coast is 1011.5 and slowing falling. One thing that could certainly increase the probability of something developing is for the shear to let up. Joe B. in his tropical update today predicted some high pressure ridging that should take place in the GOM during the next several days... If the convection sticks around long enough something may just develop, albeit a very slow process if it does.
If anything does develop we can always watch the surf in Gulf Shores Ala.
http://www.gulflive.com/beachcam/
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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i am not sure the water temp is warm enough yet for any major development. a depression would be the most this will get to is my guess. we could use the rain. of course if it just sits there a while it does increase the odds of more development.
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