Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I don't know about that tropical wave that's in the Eastern Caribbean right now. It seems to have awful signature and the convection with it (very little) is has that awful "shredded" look to it. Very ill defined, very, very, low chances for development. I keep hearing this, "June, too soon".
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Hey,Steve. Everyone knows how I feel about Joe B. and some of the things he says,but if he were to be right on this one I guess that would mean that you and I would seem to be the targets for whatever might develop.It would certainly be a long shot for this to pan out but considering it is still June I think pretty much everything is right now.IMO, everything would have to come together just perfectly for this to happen.What do you think the chances are for mischief in the central or western gulf by week's end? 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Rich: It is not for me to disagree with anyone here, but I donot see any "well-defined" circulation; there appears to be some 'spin' near 25n/89w...but that is not necessarily a surface feature, but IMO, where the jet is meeting the tropical air, ( an upper/mid level feature)...we'll just have to keep watching...(Doug.)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Kevin: i was not worried bout the circulation, it is a long way from me 
Doug: i think the spin is now more evident on satellite loops, as it is a little better defined than it was an hour or two ago.
It seems to be drifting to the east, but as far as any potential development goes, it will have to be quick Still something to watch!
Rich
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Looking at the vis sat loop there appears to be a broad mid/upper level low spinning due south of Mobile Al. with the center located at approximately 28.7N and 87.8W
I believe this might be the area that Rich is referring to... the low area is moving off towards the east. It is kinda neat watching it spin on the vis sat loop but I don't expect anything to come from it... except more rain for Fl. Bouy reports for the GOM don't indicate anything exciting happening out there with BP's around 1011.5 to 1013.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I agree with you on that Rich. There is even an 'eye-type' appearance in the visible. There is a good closeup of it on Fox8live.com - click on "weather" then click on Visible Sattelite and you can see the feature - whatever it is - pretty well.
Kevin - it looks like crap, but I don't think it's the wave that's necessarily going to develop. It's only going to act as a catalyst or activating mechanism for whatever else is down there. There is already some type of low down there (smack in the middle of the Gulf) kicking off storms, so if the east winds do pile up more moisture, then a wave comes in, there is at least a shot for some strong thunderstorms or convective complex to develop in that region.
ShawnS,
Yeah. I know how you feel. I hate his ego and his politics, but he does point out interesting phenomina and goes the extra mile to present it to the public for free - things like model bias and potential errors with the MRF, teleconnections and possible implications for the US, etc. So I watch all his videos during tropical season and read his column FWIW. I learn things pretty often, so I'm not going to knock him. Anyway, I'd guess the chance of something happening down there would be about 70% by week's end and maybe 15% that something actually gets categorized as tropical. He did get the pattern that we're in right more than 10 days ago, so whether or not something happens remains to be seen. Anyway, it's probably going to mean some wet weather for someone between the FL/AL line and the NE TX Gulf Coast when it's all said and done assuming another trof split doesn't send the energy down to SE Mexico.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yes! I see that feature racing across the northern GOM...clearly not tropical...upper air only. Also the moisture seems to be gathering south of there and there may be a spin , near where I posted earlier...that is the system that will give w.central Fla. rain tomorrow, IMO. Doug/.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well its good to see that the models handled the FL rains well. Haven't seen much here
at my home in St.Pete (0.30) but central and eastern gulf is full of convection moving
ene/ne, so expect a rainy night and Tue for that matter. Nice upper low south panhandle. Bring on the rains!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Ack! Looks like I'm the only 4-star poster on here lol. Whomever chumped me is getting one back
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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There nothing and the atlantic today there a med leavel storm form by thunderstorm and the northern gulf of mexico and There will not be a storm in till july that not good. 
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Weather Witch
Unregistered
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Take a look at 92/25 (ish)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Seems like we are getting some action starting to brew.
Getting some real soaking rains here in Cocoa beach.
Bout damn time! 
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Current look at the tampa radar show heavy rains moving towards shore. Bring it on!!!
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Ya Joe getting some heavy rain here on my end. Looks as if more in store for tuesday, we need it !!  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.ktbw.shtml
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Rain Glorious Rain....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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What is it??
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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Hey dide, dont feel too bad, I dont even have one star yet, so I guess I have to work on it some more...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well the little low in the Gulf that every one was making a big deal about yesterday that lasted for about 3 hours really was bad.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I gave you 5, so that averaging with your 1 that someone else gave you gives you 3.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well had a tornado warning for southern Pinellas this morning. Got to see a funnel east of my home racing northeast. Picked up 1.51 inches since midnight.
Edited by Joe (Tue Jun 18 2002 03:29 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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What's happened today around Tampa Bay is the low we saw yesterday at this time in the GOM around 25/87 is moving NNE...look at the latest visible sat...as it moves out a new upper air push is coming across the N. Gulf Coast, also similar to yesterday, and a piece of low level energy has been left behind in the central gulf...this is beginning to fire in relation to that upper disturbance near LA/MIss..so we could do it all over again tonight and tomorrow...watch the water vapor loop to see what I mean. EDS.
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