CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
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Rain, and lots of it for the next few days in Florida. Thanks to a tropical wave off the Southeast coast along with the tropical stream coming up from the Gulf. Nothing is organizing right now, so no depressions or anything to worry about.
Just rain, and lots of it over the next few days on and off. We've needed the rain for a while, and we are finally getting it. Only downside right now is outdoor activities and sinkholes.
As for development of anything Tropical. Not going to happen. Pressures are too high on the wave and its going to cross over the state before getting anywhere. It'll be worth watching, but still I'm thinking no named storms in June.
On my development scale, where is the wave?
code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Looks like my June 24 th prediction isn't going to hold true. Florida get set for more rain through weekend. With an upper level low over southeast coast pushing to north florida through weekend and next week, tropical wave passing, and not to mention upper level jet. All this spells rain!
Edited by Joe (Thu Jun 20 2002 12:28 PM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I got the 2002 Almanac from my boss last fall. Since it's hurricane season, I figured we'd have a little fun with the South Central and South East where tropical threats are mentioned just to see how they do. The last 2 or 3 years only had one threat for the GC, but this year they mention several. As an afterthought, they're calling for a cold Halloween and basically a chilly fall including frost 12/1 through 12/3 down to the Gulf.
June 2002
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SE States - 20th-23rd - Rain for GA through the Carolinas, followed by clearing skies. Squalls accompany a hurricane threat along the Gulf Coast.
SC States - 20th-23rd - Squalls accompany a hurricane threat along the Gulf Coast.
July
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SE States - 16th-19th - Hurricane threat along the Gulf Coast; 28th-31st - Yet another hurricane threat.
SC States - 16th-19th - Hurricane threat along the Gulf Coast.
August
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SE States - 12th-15th Hurricane threat to Gulf Coast.
SC States - 12th-15th Hurricane threat to Gulf Coast.
September
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SE States - 23rd - Hurriance threat Gulf Coast; heavy rain spread to north and east.
SC States - Hurricane threat Gulf Coast
Hey, it's all in good fun.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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[color:green] [/color] THERE'LL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF HURRICANES LATER IN THE SEASON. I READ A REPORT A YEAR AGO...THAT INDICATED THAT THE DIVERTING OF RIVERS AND METHANE ACTIVITY FROM THAT...WILL ALTER HURRICANES SUBSTANTIALLY, MAKING THEM PRONE TO GREATER ACTIVITY...AND DELAYING THE FORMATION OF THEM A MONTH OR SO LATER IN THE SEASON. THE ARGUMENT WAS THAT HURRICANES ARE AS MUCH AN ELECTRICAL PHENOMENON AS THEY ARE WARM WATERS..ETC...
NOW I HAVE NO IDEA HOW TRUE IT IS...BUT HURRICANE MITCH WAS A LATE SEASON STORM..AND THE METHANES PUSHED INTO THE WATERS WERE DELAYED BECAUSE OF DAMS AND OTHER HUMAN ACTIVITIES...
ANYONE HEARD OF THIS BEFORE..?
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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According to the The Farmers Almanac it is going to be a threatening season even though the 1st threat for this month is nowhere in sight & they also said there would be flooding rains here in my area in April when we were in the middle of a serious dry spell & I can go on & on with that foolish book,but it does make for a good laugh & kills time when I am in my local book store,as to the other post about late season hurricanes & methane or whatever,I think I heard something about that or it might have been about late development & the ,anyway you put it,it is interesting that in the past few years we've seen Mitch,Lenny & Michelle very late in the season,I'm sure that there are interactions between chemical reactions on the ground & in the atmosphere that are just now being discovered,but then again who knows these theories could be just as crazy as The Farmers Almanac.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Was driving down US 1 in Indian River County today. Standing water all over the place. Some homes are very close to being flooded. Retention ponds are full. Erin was the last time we had this much flooding and it looks like more is on the way.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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BOC looking rather disturbed this afternoon....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It is Frank P. Any thoughts? There's definitely a little outflow. This afternoon (maybe 2 or 3) it looked like there was a surface low on the Yucatan and the other Blob in the BoC. I was thinking the action was gonna form in the East Pac along the MX coast, but it seems the energy wanted to come together a little north of there. It will be interesting to see how the moisture interacts with the diving SSW dry air coming down through the south. It's got to be the key player as far as steering goes down the line. The AVN placed the moisture there a few days ago, so maybe it will be a good model for the early part of the season? For the last couple of days, some of the other models put low pressure inland in MX so maybe that's where it's headed, but I don't know. It can't go north too quickly with the trof coming down, and if it doesn't move off to the east or ene either, then it could be a player maybe - at least its moisture.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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rain???here in tampa we got nothing again,,,,,,,,,,,,we had a couple scatterd areas but nothing like the interior or S florida gets,,,,,,we are like way under normal still over the 2 year period.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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All of the local channels are calling for the trof coming SSW to cut off over us and interact with the wave which is expected to move west through the northern gulf. They're calling for showers off and on Sun-Wed. I guess that's kind of tropical.
Steve
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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another typical june evening--no storms. models only showing weak lows, one associated with the trough off the southeast, the other being that elusive BOC low. interestingly enough there is a clump of convection twisting away on the coastline down there, trying to perk my interest. i cant remember all of the depressions i've seen form and move ashore down there.. this one wont get the chance. the focus remains on the gulf, but nothing is giving a very strong signal. and with two thirds of the month finished, it is looking less like anything will come to be.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Now there thunderstorms in what looks to be a tropical low just off shore line of mexico Ther looks to be less shear over time and the system is looking nice at the time. The shear line and the gulf of mexico is trying to start outflow with this low pressure area. The main low of this area looks to be to close to land and looks to be going to the west north west making it to close for tropical system to begin but there also what looks to be a low to the north to northeast of this low that might start anytime in the next 12 hours an look to be starting just fore enough away from the coast line to start this season and this area of low pressure will move to the west north west. This low will be close enough to the outflow area of the jet it might spin of very fast if it get the chance and how fast it forms if it froms fast there a good chance it will be going north and forming slow will more likely move to the west and die. There also the chance that the main low could do the some thing with out this other low forming so watch this area it could be a thing to watch.
As for the a the southeast coast nothing will form any time soon and the rest of the atlantic only a few waves no storms or tropical systems and the next few days nothing to watch and the world and watch for another Mitch think and the bay and the caming days moving up being that X storm. .
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Weather Witch
Unregistered
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Well I picked today for the day of our first named storm.
I thought Summer Solstice how approptiate.
But X takes the square.
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Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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Rain here in Jacksonville, though. Solid slate-grey as far as the eye can see, with steady showers. Man, it's beautiful. Maybe my lawn will live after all!
Despite my earlier crystal-ball gazing that said we would have our first named storm next week, I agree that it's looking like well into July before we'll see one. Until then, bring on the rain.
Chris
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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notice how the clouds around florida are now trying to arc. most of it is the upper low splitting away and pulling west, bending the moisture train.. yet there's evidence that a SFC low is trying to develop on the NE coast.. as it is part of the same trough that has been strung from the yucatan channel to hatteras for days. the formation of a low itself up there wouldnt necessarily mean anything.. if anything it would move inland.. the very fact that a low is trying to form on this trough axis, as several models have been suggesting for days, is what is important. a couple models have put a low off southwest florida, which would mean a lot more. thats what to look for if you want a storm, so keep the eyes peeled.
the BOC disturbance hasnt gone away, hasnt moved at all. now i think back to a couple days ago when the global was putting a nondescript low down there about now, and leaving it for days. it's right near the coast, but weak systems can jump around and reform were convection to burst elsewhere.. so if some were to pop further out over the gulf.. different scenario. right there on the coast i sort of doubt its chances.. so it would have to relocate before taking it seriously.
thats the deal with both of these systems.. the look is fair to good, but the location is wrong. things could change, though.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well i agree with the post above by HF. There is definitely something trying to form near the surface over the NE Florida coast, associated with the evident cyclonic turning of the mass of convection in that area. Convection is really firing up just to the east of the Florida coast, so although i dont expect anything significant to develop it could still be quite a player on the weather scene.
As for the BOC the outlook says it has become better organised. I must admit that i dont think it looks all that good at present, but the 12Z Surface analysis places a new 1012 mb low right in the middle of the BOC, so there could be something developing.
Neither area has yet grabbed the attention of as there are no current 'Invests' as yet.
I know i too said we would see a named system in June, but the days are few now, so something would have to develop soon!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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What are the chances of the activity in the BOC sitting around down there for a few days instead of going inland in Mexico? If it did sit there,then would there be a chance of it shooting north towards us in Texas because we sure could use the rain? Whatever is going on down there it appears to have good outflow from it. 
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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BOC starting to spin up nicely,the way things have gone this year it might just dissapate as soon as I'm done with this post,but definately the best signal I've seen so far.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Dvorak Rating of 1 issued on blob in the BOC by the Gov't.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/1745 UTC 18.9N 94.7W 1.0/1.0 90
21/1145 UTC 18.8N 94.7W 1.0/1.0 90
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
The estimate came from that site which I hadn't checked before - just another one to check during the meat of the season.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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