Anonymous
Unregistered
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Will be a named storm before June 30, either this weekend or in the early next week.
IHS,
Bill
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Bill,
Where are you thinking? SW Gulf? Boc? SW Atlantic?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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They are sending a plane in tomorrow afternoon to the BOC.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Hey steve! I'll add my 2 cents in on what "may" be happening in the BOC.
Analysis: First of all, this system is located in a fairly favorable area for development, climatologically and conditionally. There is plenty of moisture near the system, and the sheer values aren't too high. There is a definite circulation with this system, in the mid-levels. The key for development would be for more of the deep type of convection to develop near the center. The circulation would also have to work it's way down to the lower-levels.
Positives: Fairly low wind sheer, warm water temperatures, climatology favors BOC for June devleopment, favorable conditions atmospheric conditions.
Negatives: Closeness to land, atmospheric conditions could change, for better or for worse (track is what will dictate this), nightfall is near.
Forecast: Despite the fact that recon is scheduled tommorrow, there is actually a good chance it will be canceled. This system is going to be slow in nature to do anything, including development and tracking. I find it quite likely that this system will develop on Sunday or Monday than tommorrow (if development occurs).
Chance of development on Saturday: 10%
Chance of development on Sunday: 25%
Chance of development on Monday: 25%
Chance of development on Tuesday: 10%
That was my first analysis and forecast for the 2002 hurricane season, as far as an individual system goes.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Kevin,
i am in agreement with what you are saying. This is the most viable system so far this year, and as has already been mentioned, it has now been assigned numbers of 1.0. However, still no 'Invest' on , but i expect this to change soon. Also, deep and strong connvection is now developing southeast of the apparent circulation and is moving northwest off the shore of the NW Yucatan. It is possible that the centre may relocate depending on convective activity, but this is a system that needs watching!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well I didn't think my June 24th prediction would hold up the other day although things are getting intresting in southern gulf. Maybe I'll be close? Who would know yet again tropics get going a little as I head out for vacation.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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basic problems with either system-- shear and/or proximity to land havent changed. neither has moved much. though convectively naked the real SFC low on the trough axis near florida is off naples now, where it needs to be for this thing to spin up. the negative is that the jet max south of the upper cutoff is going right over it. shear is around 40kt.. not ferocious, but enough to keep it checked, until the upper wind field changes. were the low to elongate north south this weak low would be under the upper divergent flow east of the cutaway system, and convection would be going nuts around it. thats all the difference a couple hundred miles makes. as the whole thing pulls away to the west it may get its chance, since the surface trough has barely moved for days. slow northwestward movement is indicated on most model forecasts.
the BOC system is virtually unchanged. the convection went away but quickly reformed, further east this time. if whatever low pressure is trying to work its way down from the mid levels shifts to this new convective center, it will be better located, not on the very western rim of the BOC. still very close to land. the shear situation will probably worsen with this system, but continue to support convection. the longer it persists, the better its chances that a surface low will cook off.
suffice to say i think neither has an even chance of development, but at least theyre making things interesting.
my bet was for a july first storm, mid to late in the month. the may system gave my bid a good scare, now these twin disturbances are threatening it.
first night of astronomical summer and the watch continues.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Good report Kevin. I would have voted near or at the top, but you didn't have the 'vote' thingy to click on. It looks on the IR that the center of the ULL is now somewhere near the AL coastline. It's probably going to be an unsettled day further east than here along the Gulf Coast with the first few tropical sunrises and sunsets over the next 3 or 4 days and a few inches of rain.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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That low and b.o.c as of right now is looking weak and there some shear I can see it. This storm is to close the avn model shows nothing but a weak wave the thunderstorms are weaking. I need to look at a few more model and shear stuff before I come back with a full forecast tonight. like last night that one low is this low and the main low want inland some of the power got sheared. Matthew
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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It's a nice change of pace to look at more than 5 models that place a low over me in 48 hours. It is entirely possible that many locations from Panama City to Morgan City could get several inches of rain over the next 4 days. I think the models are underplaying the potential rainfall. And while I don't see widespread flooding across the gulf coast with this setup, there should be some locally heavy amounts especially for anyone getting caught under training storms.
Sunday looks like an especially good day for napping and lounging. I'm looking forward to it already.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Steve, had to come in to work today... ughhhh... Rocket test stand I'm on is about 300 feet high and working on the top of it this morning feels just like fall weather... cool temps (64 deg F) with some brisk winds out of the NE... hard to believe its June 22. Affects of upper level low coming in from the east should send us some more rain for the next day or so...
BOC has lost much of its deep convection over night although the last few IR sat loops indicate it is trying to make a comback. Only real deep convection this am is off the coast of Fl/Ga. Would be very suprised if sent in recon today in the BOC area ... not gonna happen unless it gets cranking up later this morning... My thoughts earlier in May was that I didn't think we would have much tropical activity in June, nor a named system.. Actually we've had more to look at that I thought we would with a couple of interesting systems earlier that didn't really get going...
Still don't think we'll get that named storm until mid to late July... mid Aug to late Sept is the brunt of a typical season and this year is holding true to that format so far... obviously things can change... and I've eaten crow before too... probably eat some more this year (tastes like chicken right... hehe)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Frank,
the most recent IR Imagery and the first few visible pics do show convection is again trying to crank up over the waters of the SW BOC. However, the latest discusion places the 1015 mb low inland over Mexico with a trough extending into the BOC. There is little convection associated with the actual low at present, but more associated with the trough over water. Perhaps the circulation may relocate closer to the convective activity over water, especially if it really fires up today. Any way, i guess we will have to wait and see 
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Well, folks, it looks as if our little BOC system will just have to wait until Sunday or Monday when it will *possibly* get a chance to locate more over the water. Convection has died overnight, showing that system is a little weanie, for now anyways. Systems that are for real sustain their convection if not develop more intense convection during nighttime hours. This one's gonna have to wait, but it will be a slow process, as I said. Thought last night recon would be canceled, looks as if that will happen. Second analysis this afternoon or tonight. 
*Kevin*
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well the convection in the BOC is still going, but not as strong as yesterday at this time. The recon has been cancelled as the centre was inland over Mexico. However, there is a hint in the last few visible loops that the circulation may be relocating nearer to the coast, or a new circulation may be developing in the region. Like i said it just looks like that MAY be happening and the next few hours, and more loops will tell!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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whatever the BOC system had going for it last night is gone. the westerly jet feeding around that upper low to the north has scraped its way to the bottom of the BOC bowl, so nothing is going to happen down there. any interest, though extremely low, would be east of there on the diffluent boundary of disturbed weather from the yucatan up to the carolinas, or just east of that where a weak amount of ridging exists. nothing doing at the SFC over there and pressures are high. something would have to evolve in this area, and that would take several days, something it probably doesnt have.
i was a little impressed yesterday, but today its clear that neither of these systems anything going.
have to wait for the next trough to split away in the western atlantic for another real shot at development.. that will probably be in the second week of july at the pace the pattern is cycling.
HanKFranK aiken,sc 0039z23june
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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that said.. the wave currently approaching the islands is slowing down due to a weakness in the ridge to the north, and has a fairly well defined distortion in the trade wind flow at its northern end. have to see if this feature does anything as it approaches the bahamas in the next couple of days (no model support so i have serious doubt).
HanKFranK aiken, sc 0044z23june
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Frank P,
I hear ya'. We had an almost fall-like day today here too. It was cloudy, breezy (NE 15-18) and mild all day with a high of 83. The WV image of the effecting ULL is pretty amazing. And like I said yesterday, I expect various locations along the Gulf to receive several inches of rain over the next few days. We started with a sprinkle or two today in N.O. I see Sunday, Monday and Tuesday as the potential big rain days.
Steve
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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how much you get out of this upper system is fairly random, though more is falling closer to the coast. been overcast 70-80 degree weather with occasional showers since thursday here. in all of that less than a quarter inch of rain has fallen. at least it is soaking in with the clouds overhead, not evaporating in thirty minutes of summer sunshine. that running drought drags on and on.
far as the tropics go, keep a bored and lazy eye off the southeast coast, but dont expect arthur to show up any time soon. there has never been an arthur in the gulf.. years that this list has been used have featured mostly atlantic storms. 'bout time for a change of pace.
HanKFranK aiken, sc 1641z23june
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I haven't seen the sun in a month.
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