Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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All the deep convection tonight is certainly not in the GOM but along the LA/MS/FL northern gulf coast... system in GOM has lost some of its convection since late this afternoon... same thing happened last night as well, and re-emerged in the morning... maybe that's whats going to happen again later tonight or early tomorrow...
We've got some intense thunderstorms east of Mobile and north of Jackson Co MS and in the Pensacola area
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Primary upper level low is just north of the north coast of the Yucatan. This upper low is forecast to move to the west southwest over the next couple of days, but it is creating a band of increasing easterly shear over the central Gulf. Just a guess, but this is probably what is holding further development in check and preventing the development of a stable . The system has expanded somewhat, but it has moved very little in the past 12 hours. Looking at the cirrus blow-offs, it appears that at high altitude there is some winds out of the west, i.e., directional shear as well. Although the upper low is forecast to move south of west into the southwest Gulf, the models suggest that the band of easterly shear does not decrease. I'm beginning to think that this system is going to have a tough time organizing. As HF noted, some of the models begin to develop a system off the SW FL coast in a couple of days. It will be interesting to see what the later model runs do with this since the shear in the eastern Gulf is a lot lighter and forecasted to stay that way.
Cheers,
ED
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Just back in from Western NY State and there's what, 200 posts I had to read? LOL. So I paid little to no attention to the weather because I was determined to stay offline and also because it was mid-90's in NY anyway.
I caught the news today and there was a tornado warning up in Washington Parish in the Eastern corner of LA just south of where Mississippi sits on top of it. We didn't get any rain here in N.O. and it was up to like 97 today. However, if this nice little line of yellows and reds that are about to slam Frank P can hold together for another hour, we'll get a chance to cool off tonight.
I don't see a whole lot going on in the Gulf outside of the low pressure itself. There is very little convection tonight, but I do expect it to perk up tomorrow. I think it's 50/50 that by Tuesday we'll be dealing with a minor tropical storm on the South Texas coast. Let's just hope it doesn't move on into central TX and compound those flooding problems.
Anyway, I'm glad to be back and hope everyone had as great of a 4th of July as I had! Woo Hoo!
Steve
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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the cloud mass around 95L just sort of dissolved this evening. a few tstorms have redeveloped around the center at this late hour. pretty good look at the low level system since it is exposed, not too shabby, but not very tight. nothing a good couldnt fix. no sustained pressure falls in the gulf.. system is unchanged. model runs still not deepening it much. anyhow i still think it will develop, just less time to get organized. weak tropical storm at landfall, probably just north of la pesca tuesday afternoon, best guess.
gfdl still making an eastern gulf system around mid week.. just dont know where the hell its coming from. not convinced yet.. have to see something concrete. is on the triggerhappy side until a real low forms.. then it does pretty well.
HanKFranK aiken SC 0521z08july
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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well 95L really has lost alot of its punch over night, becomming almost completely devoid of any deep convection. The low is obviuosly still intact, and the most recent satellite images suggest convection may be increasing to the southwest of the centre again. It wont be a TD by the 530am update, expect that to come in about 12 hours if it can get going again. I must admit, yesterday i thought this thing was inevitably going to develop, like 95% sure. Now i am less sure... perhaps 65%, but still expect it to impact the coast late Tuesay as a Tropical Cyclone... possibly only a TD, but still maybe a weak TS...
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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System in Central Gulf is starting to look better and I believe it will be classified today. The area to the South of Florida that some of the models were hinting at developing of the SW coast of Florida is looking impressive. This area could end up being of much greater concerned. Would like to hear some opinions on this area as I live on the West Coast of Florida.
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Caneman, Looking at Sat Pics and radar of the heavy rains moving onto the SE Florida coast this morning, I think maybe this is something that might support developement that you refered to in SW GOM. This mornings discussion mentions this:SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
IN AREA OF MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WATERS BETWEEN
ANDROS ISLAND/CUBA/SE FLORIDA COAST WITHIN 25-50 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 23N78.5W 24.5N79W 26N80W.
Hey its something at the moment and let's watch and see what happens.
I was on IM with weather friend in north Miami area and they said its comming down in buckets at moment. At least we have convection with this thing,
Hurric
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I am certainly more impressed with the activity around Florida this morning than with the low in the western gulf. I think the Florida system has a greater potential to develop mainly because it does have more storms with it than the other had at any time. This is actually a tropical wave and not some trof split from what I hear. My attention has now switched to the east and what could possibly happen with this activity. Any thoughts?
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