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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida
End of the Quiet Time
      #10104 - Wed Aug 27 2003 10:59 AM

The Atlantic has two systems with good potential to develop right now. Ending a few weeks of relative inactivity.

There is a wave located near Hispanola that may develop, one east of the Leeward islands 1000 miles or so and one just south of the cape Verde Islands, which is the most likely to form first.



Along with an upper level low in the gulf, things are really starting to heat up. I'd expect one maybe two tropical depressions to form sometime today.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mac]


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10105 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:04 AM

Hey guys,
both of the waves over the eastern Atlantic look good. Personally, i would be surprised if we did not see 92L (just west of the CV Islands) become a classified system today.

93L over the Atlantic about 1000 miles east of the Leewards looks good. This one i would expect to be classified by tomorrow if it persists. Will both bear watching.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10107 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:14 AM

Look of MARYLAND...very interesting little twist. And might the Gulf be about to give us a surprise?

IHS,

Bill


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10108 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:17 AM

What are the models showing for 92L(TD 10?) & 93L?, appears to me by looking at the SAT loops that they both might be fish spinners.


--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10109 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:30 AM

Was there a bit of a hold up with the 11am Outlook? Is the TPC mulling classification of 1 maybe 2 systems? Both systems in the Atlantic are looking good. I wonder what a recon would find?

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10111 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:37 AM

The area that has my immediate concern is the wave/low north of the Dominican Republic. Looking at the latest visible loops there is definite turning in the Low level cloud field. NHC says a broad area of low pressure may be forming. Think this one will be a go, if the shear lets up (as it seems to be doing). Could dampen the Labor day weekend here in Central Florida. Two other waves are over a week out, and lots can happen. Will it be wagons west?? Think 93L is heading toward the fish and 92L may get dragged in its wake. However if we get the ridge to pump up in the Atlantic then all bets are off, and we'll have to watch for NEXT weekend. The GOM also has some possibilities as noted in the UKMET and the piece by Joe B. We'll see what evolves. Cheers!!

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Beach
Unregistered




Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10112 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:41 AM

Joe B, say the Atlantic ridge is going to uild and keep the storms on a NW or W track.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10113 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:44 AM

Jara: It was actually released a bit early (I saw it on net-waves.net at a bit before 11, so at least by then), but it looks like computer problems have caused a problem with its dissemination. (Last time I checked, the satellite images on the NHC site hadn't updated in several hours, and all the NWS discussions mention a computer crash.)

Here it is:


1130 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON THURSDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY WILL
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10114 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:47 AM

It almost looks like "wave 3" or 92L has split into 2 pieces of energy, or is this just going to be one BIG storm. Any thoughts on this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
fell out of my chair
      #10115 - Wed Aug 27 2003 11:55 AM

Almost fell out of my chair when I just saw those 5 stars by my name -- I literally laughed out loud.

A bit of honest self-evaluation here: I know nothing compared to people posting here with 1,2,3,4 stars, so definitely ignore that rating if you're looking at anything other than my posting of factual information I find elsewhere or see on the satellite images. (And even then you might be wise to question what I've posted!)

I am still laughing....


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10116 - Wed Aug 27 2003 12:22 PM

Lisa, look at the NRL visible loop. What you're seeing is the SW arc of 93L. It still has a center, its just that the convection needs to consoladate in the center.

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10117 - Wed Aug 27 2003 12:29 PM

thanks steve.
When did they move the floaters to 92L and 93L?


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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10118 - Wed Aug 27 2003 12:30 PM

They just moved them. I answered my own question. I found out by trying to do a loop.

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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10119 - Wed Aug 27 2003 12:31 PM

Not sure. I know they are having some problems today. But i expect them to get 92L on, probably when it gets TD status, which it should have had already IMO.

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Bill
Unregistered




Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10120 - Wed Aug 27 2003 12:33 PM

Uh oh===here come the weasel words--- "CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON THURSDAY."(as opposed to "later today" at 0530)...."development... IF ANY will be slow to occur", "THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS"...

so, we go from unbridled 'optimism' on part of NHC to pulling in the reins at 1130.

I KNEW I was being too gung ho in my earlier post (but did it anyway). Still looks like one TD today or tomorrow---the rest, we will see.

In regard to movement---the system N of Hispaniola may be a fish and one in the center---not sure about CV system yet....

IHS,

Bill


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10121 - Wed Aug 27 2003 12:52 PM

Looks like the disturbance N of Hispanola got ripped up by the shear, doesn't look like it's much of a factor anymore. Mid-atlantic wave looks like a fish spinner, remains to be seen whether 92L will be a fish also.


--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Beach
Unregistered




Disturbance in the GOM
      #10122 - Wed Aug 27 2003 01:36 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Defineatly getting it's act together, position your mouse and click the zoom button a couple of times.
This could be the home brew discussed earlier.


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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Disturbance in the GOM
      #10123 - Wed Aug 27 2003 01:46 PM

GOM system waning.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10124 - Wed Aug 27 2003 01:49 PM

Do not rule out the potential for wave no. 1 as the shearing appears to have diminished and now looks like it has begun to take-off. Watch out Florida!

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Disturbance in the GOM
      #10125 - Wed Aug 27 2003 01:57 PM

it does have a spin to it. nothing much has been said about it but with labor day weekend coming up (last big weekend for the beaches) i would think they would be real reluctant to put any thoughts into the tourist minds. they issue advisories and nothing happens all the motel owners scream bloody murder because they lost all their business.

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