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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10126 - Wed Aug 27 2003 01:59 PM

I don't know Joe, there's some low-level turning in the cloud field, but shear is supposed to relax duing the next 18 hours. We'll see. Watching it in Central Florida. 92L is the best looking thing out there.....heading due west right now.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Disturbance in the GOM
      #10127 - Wed Aug 27 2003 02:07 PM

>>GOM system waning.

Bill,

That's an upper low. What(if)ever is yet to form in the Gulf of Mexico won't even begin to show up until the weekend. The moisture will come from SW of that ULL (old TD 9), wave split from this week's EC wave and the NW propogation of the convection in the extreme WC.

So whatever we may see down the road isn't even on the map yet (surface or upper).

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10128 - Wed Aug 27 2003 02:16 PM

92L(TD10?) looking stronger by the hour, strong convection building around the center, looks to be heading more westerly in the last few frames.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Alex
Unregistered




soon to be TD10
      #10129 - Wed Aug 27 2003 02:57 PM

I'll second you on that observation, Tropics guy. I'll wager a TD at 5 or 11.

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10130 - Wed Aug 27 2003 02:59 PM

93L looks more organized than 92L. there is some shear to the north but the twist seems to be @ 22n 48w.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: End of the Quiet Time
      #10131 - Wed Aug 27 2003 03:08 PM

It looks like it should be a fish spinner but the forecast models are building pressure west, not weakening, so it mybe based on the systems speed along with timing and the arrival of the next trough to the east coast. I'm reading bits and pieces that the next trough is not expected to dig especially deep. Any of you who have a bit more going upstairs meteorology wise, feel free to comment.

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Jara

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: soon to be TD10
      #10132 - Wed Aug 27 2003 03:13 PM

You got that right, Alex., I think they would upgrade it later today., they might be a little hessitant though because of the past history of TD's this season to "fizzle out" soon after they were upgraded, so they may wait a little longer on this one.
Think this one is well on it's way to being a TS and long tracker, and won't "fizzle out" unless it gets into shear trouble down the road.



--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: soon to be TD10
      #10133 - Wed Aug 27 2003 04:34 PM

I do not think there will be any fizzle in 92L. Looking at the Dvorak Loop, 92L should be at 2.0 or maybe better. I think all doubt would be gone if there was slightly more convection. We may see classification by 5pm.

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Jara

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
TD 10 at 5 pm?
      #10134 - Wed Aug 27 2003 04:36 PM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi now has 92L listed as "10L," which normally means it's being classified.

I'm surprised its Dvorak numbers were still 1.5 at 1:30 est - looks impressive.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: TD 10 at 5 pm?
      #10135 - Wed Aug 27 2003 04:37 PM

lol - 3 stars are a bit more realistic, but probably still generous

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Yep, it's TD10
      #10136 - Wed Aug 27 2003 04:43 PM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi now has the 5-day forecast track up

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Alan
Unregistered




Re: Yep, it's TD10
      #10137 - Wed Aug 27 2003 04:49 PM

Now that NOGAPS has dropped the formation of a major storm east of Central Florida, can anyone point to a model that has a hurricane on it sometime in the next five days?

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Yep, it's TD10
      #10138 - Wed Aug 27 2003 04:49 PM

All info is up on the NHC site, if anyone is interested. (I suspect some people are.)

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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Yep, it's TD10
      #10139 - Wed Aug 27 2003 04:49 PM

I was just about to post that there would be a TD 10 at five....pretty classic track too,,.,,

IHS,
Bill

looks like our east carib wave is getting it's act together SOUTH of Cuba and DR.

IHS,

Chas
other system trying to go, and a low developing off Maryland....


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Yep, it's TD10
      #10140 - Wed Aug 27 2003 04:52 PM

Alan: now that the models can properly initialize TD 10, don't be suprised if some of them show it as a hurricane within 5 days. Note that the NHC kept the forecast strength at 50 kt late in the period because of the uncertanties involved, which probably means some models will show it much stronger, and others will show it weaker or dissipated.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Yep, it's TD10
      #10141 - Wed Aug 27 2003 04:53 PM

"stronger," not necessarily "much stronger"

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Yep, it's TD10... I'm looking closer to home
      #10142 - Wed Aug 27 2003 05:04 PM

Well we got a TD a million miles away, so at least we have something to track over the next several days.... maybe... I'm trying to find something closer to home to watch...

GOM was all ULL action and has fizzled out...
Wave north of H/DR is been obliterated by shear.....
However, a interesting convection building up over and southwest of Jamaica in taking place this afternoon.... pressures in the area are 1011, so they are low... now can it stew long enough to generate something... probably not... but nothing else in the area has any potential... if not then all eyes will be eastward... and it might end up being a fish spinner depending what the wave does in front of it...


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Yep, it's TD10
      #10143 - Wed Aug 27 2003 05:05 PM

Does anyone have an upated shear forecast. Looks like shear is unrelenting and could ruin the whole party.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Yep, it's TD10... I'm looking closer to home
      #10144 - Wed Aug 27 2003 05:09 PM

I guess the one thing about that Jamaica low pressure is that the pressures in the area have actually increased 2 mb as compared to this time yesterday, when they were 1009 to 1010.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Yep, it's TD10... I'm looking closer to home
      #10145 - Wed Aug 27 2003 05:15 PM

yeah, but yesterday they had no convection... no convection then no potential, no development, and NO CHANCE... hey, it's the only thing I could find with any potential... and I'm scraping the bottom on this one..... Gee Brad, you lose a couple of stars and get all huffy... hehe....

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