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#96L 's remnants now consolidating into a compact well-defined Low over the Bahamas. May head towards Bermuda eventually.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Michael) , Major: 38 (Michael) Florida - Any: 38 (Michael) Major: 38 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Yep, it's TD10... I'm looking closer to home
      #10146 - Wed Aug 27 2003 05:22 PM

lol--wait until you see me when I vote myself down to 1 star Frank...I'll be the raging bull of the boards!

Definitely right that there's more convection there, and that it's the most interesting thing around...not out of the question something could happen there. (That sound more like the short-lived 5-star version of myself? Oh, the good not-so-old days!)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ten, 93L
      #10147 - Wed Aug 27 2003 05:26 PM

ah, a 25kt depression. the long tracker we've all been waiting to see, of course. 93L is playing chicken with the shear monster off to the northwest, and regardless of whether it develops i expect it to lure 10 off the w-wnw track. if either of these somehow continues west under the ridge, it's two weekends away. only real threats in the short term will be home grown, so to speak.. bahamas to near the yucatan. that's the story. something to track, still no worries, just model conjecture.
HF 2126z27august


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Stars, Shear and the Gulf...
      #10148 - Wed Aug 27 2003 05:45 PM

1) Stars - Brad, I voted you 1 since you didn't want the 5 (not that I wouldn't have given you a 5). I'd like to see those things removed because of the occasional battles between personalities. Look at cycloneye for example. He's a 5* poster all the way. But he got into it with some people on another site and they came over and down-rated him. Believe me, he's not 2 stars.
-------------------------------------------------
2) Shear:

http://atwc.org/p5.php#shear

Some of ATWO's links are dead, but most of them work.
-----------------------------------------------------
3) The Gulf:

Here's another comment from Bastardi from this afternoon:

>>Comment on tropics: The eta has joined the alliance with the Euro and I on the western gulf development this weekend

Remember. Tropical Storm Bill was brought to you by the ETA/ECMWF alliance (and the Letter "B" of course).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
How will the scenario of 93L and TD#10 being close affects the future track?
      #10149 - Wed Aug 27 2003 05:49 PM

Interesting situation that may happen if those 2 systems are close one to another.The question is if the system to the NW of TD#10 will affect the track.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Stars and Bastardi (both toward Steve)
      #10150 - Wed Aug 27 2003 05:59 PM

Bastardi: how long have you subscribed? And have you found it to be worth it? I read him regularly the last two months of last season (after following this board for a year or so), and got a lot from his analysis (I know lots of folks have different opinions about him), and suspect I'd get more from him now that I know a bit more.


Stars: Thanks for the vote! I think the star system is mostly silly, in part for the reasons you mentioned, and I really could care less if I'm 0, 1, or 5 stars. (Although for pure humor value, 0 and 5 both have some appeal.)

But I do understand the system has some value (e.g., new people to the board may rely on 5-star posters more than 1-star), so quite frankly, I do think it was in everyone's best interest to take me down from 5. I don't know if you're joking or not about the 1-star vote, but if you're serious, thank you because I think it was a good thing.


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Well...
      #10151 - Wed Aug 27 2003 06:22 PM

Guess it's time to decloak and start posting again...(sigh)....lol.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Disturbance in the GOM
      #10152 - Wed Aug 27 2003 06:25 PM

andy1tom! We may very well have some interesting times ahead for our area!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Well...
      #10153 - Wed Aug 27 2003 06:30 PM

Yeh man! The AVN, among others seems to like us.... see if it continues

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Well...
      #10154 - Wed Aug 27 2003 07:07 PM

Geeez Louise guys, looks like this board has been very busy today. No doubt things must be looking up. Will take me a while to get caught up on all the post today. Can somebody botton line this for me?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Wed Aug 27 2003 07:10 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Well...
      #10155 - Wed Aug 27 2003 07:27 PM

Well you have good ole #10 kicking along but the interest to me is closer to home wave/model wise. Like I said a while ago...ST6 may soon have 3 cyclones to deal with

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Hey Brad:
      #10156 - Wed Aug 27 2003 07:47 PM

>>Bastardi: how long have you subscribed? And have you found it to be worth it? I read him regularly the last two months of last season (after following this board for a year or so), and got a lot from his analysis (I know lots of folks have different opinions about him), and suspect I'd get more from him now that I know a bit more.

I got my 30 day free trial started on May 27th, so I paid for June, July, August and September. I plan to kill the service off in October, but I'll definitely be subscribing again next June. It's $14.95/month or $140/year.

You get the same things they had when it was free - streaming videos: Point/Counterpoint, Tropical Update and Long Ranger and you get the daily column. Whenever it's active, Joe gives you 2 or 3 updates throughout the day if anything changes or he wants to refine/tweak a forecast.

I hear what you're saying about some having different opinions. For some, it has to do with the way Accuweather treats new grads ($19k salaries). For others, they think they're better than Joe. But for my money, he's the best tropical forecaster available to the public. He's got an uncanny knack for pattern recognition stuff, and has done pretty well with storms and developments. You typically get a heads up or jump on potential activity from him. I don't agree with everything he says, but he's at that level what he says must be considered in the whole picture.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Well...
      #10157 - Wed Aug 27 2003 08:14 PM

Thanks Coop, at least we have something to track. Keep us posted on this close to home stuff. Does this mean that it is still going to rain in Fl. this weekend?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
West Caribbean
      #10158 - Wed Aug 27 2003 08:18 PM

Like the deep convection being generated SW of Jamaica... some intense thunderstorms with high tops cranking, would like to see the area a little larger, maybe it will grow throughout the night, unlike our other systems who always faded off in the early morning hours... best guess 20-25% chance of development... and Pressure down to 1010 on the island.... hard to get to interested in TD 10 so far away right now.... so I'm going to focus what closer at hand.... can't get the GOES to loop right now, not sure if it's on my end or theirs...

Jason, nice to have you back.... one remaining missing in action ....... Colleen ... might have to send out CFHC search party... Yo Rambo...


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: West Caribbean
      #10159 - Wed Aug 27 2003 08:27 PM

Oh another thing.... the stars... I commented last season that I really didn't like having stars posted... doesn't mean anything at all IMO... if you had to have them, then I would suggest this change to the process...
1. You could only rate someone after THEY have made a minimum of 50 posts... then you would have something to base your evaluation on, and not their percieved personality.
2. You could only rate someone after YOU had completed a minimum of 50 posts... then you would have been around long enough to warrant that privledge. This would make the star rating system a little more fair.... IMO

bottom line, no big deal, it doesn't affect or impact my opinion of someone's post.... it's what they say that's important...


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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: West Caribbean
      #10160 - Wed Aug 27 2003 08:50 PM

Looks like things are starting to fire up. Should be busy now for some time. I think TD10 will make it across the big pond. Would like some feedback on this. I have noticed over the 6 to 7 years on this board that patterns seem to set-up during a season. This year it seems all the storms are going from East to West. We have had a few make it across the pond so far this year. Didn't amout to much, but they made it. Is this going to hold up for the rest of the season? Colleen where are you?????

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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: West Caribbean
      #10161 - Wed Aug 27 2003 09:09 PM

Ok Guys, Spit it out!! I have to travel to Tallahassee this weekend to see my family. Am I going to run into anything tropical making landfall near the panhandle between Pensacola and Tallahassee. I will be driving back on Labor day to be at Work on Tuesday. It will be a rough enough trip without the added tropicallness( is that a word?)

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: West Caribbean
      #10162 - Wed Aug 27 2003 09:16 PM

You know she said that she would not be posting for awhile because she was going away with either her family or the other halfs family for a week. maybe they are holding her hostage...LOL

Jason...good to read you again...


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: West Caribbean
      #10163 - Wed Aug 27 2003 09:44 PM

Is anyone having problems getting to the GFS runs? The NCEPS page will not load. Is there another route I can take?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Wed Aug 27 2003 09:45 PM)


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Good evening all.
      #10164 - Wed Aug 27 2003 10:02 PM

Well, we finally have TD 10 LOL. It's late and I'm going to get to the good stuff quickly...the system should move to the west or just slightly north of west for the next 3 1/2 to 4 days. After that...there may be a slight weakness in the ridge from the wave and surface trough currently around 20N and 44W. However, this may not even materialize as the surface trough is being severely sheared this evening. Most of the cloud activity is currently being blown off to the east and northeast. Although the wave/trough has an impressive area of convection, it will be impossible for the circulation to align. Therefore, these are the two scenarios that I see as 50/50 right now:

1. The system currently near 20N 44W develops a little more aruond day 4 and creates a weakness, causing what should be Fabian to crawl nnw but turn w or wnw again.
2. The 20N 44W has no effect on TD 10/Fabian at all.

Honestly, I don't think this one is an easy recurvature.

Anything that develops in GOMEX will be evolutional and will only come to fruition if things "spark" correctly.

I've been super-busy in school lately, but I'll have more thoughts tomorrow on what should be an interesting Labor Day Weekend for tropical watchers.


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Good evening all.
      #10165 - Wed Aug 27 2003 10:04 PM

Good chance we will have a TS at 11pm. Latest T-numbers:

27/2330 UTC 14.7N 32.3W T2.0/2.0 10


--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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