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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
looking for the llc
      #10246 - Thu Aug 28 2003 03:31 PM

been studying the vis sat loop on our west caribbean system... there might might might might might hint of a broad low level center trying to form at ~20.5N and 85.8W or in that general area... well nw of most of the convection, and appears to be moving w or wnw..... time will tell... however, go to the GOES vis sat loop for the past 8 frames, set to a high speed and just watch... you might have to use Loiscane's approach and get about 20 or so feet away from the screen... it's all premature speculation at this point anyway...

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bobbi at home
Unregistered




lol cat five depression
      #10247 - Thu Aug 28 2003 03:48 PM

BEST laugh of th day... IF i we rated them

yes...a cat five LOL


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Alex
Unregistered




Soon to be Fabian and Western Caribbean
      #10248 - Thu Aug 28 2003 04:10 PM

If the NHC doesnt upgrade TD10 at 5, I'll be shocked. And yes, I see a spin in the western caribbean. It may move into the gulf and develope. But Its still speculation

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: lol cat five depression
      #10249 - Thu Aug 28 2003 04:10 PM

Melbourne NWS is already mentioning Tropical Wave Fabian / the cat 4 depression (I still say it needs an eye to be a cat 5 depression):

EXTENDED...GENERAL E TO SE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN. WITH DEEP ONSHORE AND SUITABLE
MOISTUER FUNNELING FROM THE TROPICS TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AT MID OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN AS A PERSISTENT FEATURE WHILE AND CONTINUING TO STEER
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TD #10) AT MID OCEAN IN A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARD
THE BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Officially Fabian--45 mph winds
      #10250 - Thu Aug 28 2003 04:27 PM



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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Officially Fabian--45 mph winds
      #10251 - Thu Aug 28 2003 04:40 PM

Fabian's looking good on this SAT view.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/03_ATL_10L.NONAME_ssmi_goesvis_full.html

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Officially Fabian--45 mph winds
      #10252 - Thu Aug 28 2003 04:42 PM

WTNT45 KNHC 282028
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2003

THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE DAY. BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE PROMINENT ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGES AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 40 KT. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE PASSED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A
DATA BUOY AND THAT PLATFORM REPORTED ONLY ABOUT 10 KT WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THIS OBSERVATION SEEMS TOO LOW...IT IS ROUGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH AN EARLIER SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS IS ALSO WHAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A STORM MOVING SO RAPIDLY WESTWARD. THE
STORM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...SST AND SHEAR...FAVOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE QUICKLY WESTWARD...275/19. THERE IS A
STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF
FABIAN. THIS STEERING REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ON A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE PREDICTED DECELERATION MAY BE DUE TO A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A DISTURBANCE NEAR 24N49W.
OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO APPARENT REASONS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHWARD EXCURSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS ALSO ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
SUITE.

THE 4-5 DAY FORECAST POINTS IMPLY A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...BUT THERE ARE LARGE AVERAGE ERRORS AT THESE TIME
RANGES. IT IS WAY...WAY...TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHETHER FABIAN WILL
POSE A THREAT TO LAND AREAS FARTHER WEST.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.2N 39.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 15.7N 41.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 16.2N 44.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 16.8N 46.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 17.4N 49.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 18.5N 53.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 20.5N 62.5W 70 KT




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Bill
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Wave Fabian
      #10253 - Thu Aug 28 2003 05:08 PM

Wave axis

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Soon to be Fabian and Western Caribbean
      #10254 - Thu Aug 28 2003 05:23 PM

For everybody who's been talking up the western carib., the NHC agrees:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR
TWO.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Soon to be Fabian and Western Caribbean
      #10255 - Thu Aug 28 2003 06:04 PM

I would say this one will be our "attention getter" before long The Carib that is.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
NRL
      #10256 - Thu Aug 28 2003 06:09 PM

There is a new invest up 94L...but right at this moment no other information.

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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: NRL
      #10257 - Thu Aug 28 2003 06:11 PM

Sorry found a pic...stupid puter...it's the wave in the W Carib...

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: NRL
      #10258 - Thu Aug 28 2003 06:23 PM

Yeah Squirel.... I've been on this thing since yesterday early afternoon... it's slowly gotten better organized over time and looks like its really working hard to get that LLC going... not just yet but it's getting closer.... convection has been persistant since yesterday... good low level flow from south to north, first thing I look for in a developing LLC... nothing to show that west component yet, but sometimes hard to find with a lot of convection... these things take time to pull it all together but it's showing potential with each passing hour... interesting to see what it does when it gets into the GOM, no, its not a sure thing, but it's close to home and if it goes, the GOM folks won't really care to much about Fabian .... for now

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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: NRL
      #10259 - Thu Aug 28 2003 06:37 PM

Break out the Crown....it may be a long week...LOL

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: NRL
      #10260 - Thu Aug 28 2003 06:42 PM

I almost hate to say this but I think there may be, just may be a LLC trying around 81/20... quickly covered up.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Alex
Unregistered




two areas worth watching
      #10261 - Thu Aug 28 2003 06:48 PM

Fabian, still in the middle of nowhere continues to look better organized. A hurricane in 48 hours isnt out of the possibility, but lets keep the horse before the cart

Our new system, 94I continues to slowly get better organized. For the U.S at least, its the most immediate threat, and I know that at least one model has it developing and heading for the general Pensacola area

An interesting footnote-I moved to Orlando this year with my family, and at my new high school, I am surprised by the multitudes of students who follow tropical weather.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: two areas worth watching
      #10262 - Thu Aug 28 2003 06:52 PM

>>no, its not a sure thing

It in itself may not be a sure thing, but it will be part of a sure thing in a couple of days.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
what to do
      #10263 - Thu Aug 28 2003 07:44 PM

its tough now. option to go to a whitewater rafting trip in TN this weekend. so do i stay here and watch the developments, or do i go galavanting down the ocoee? most people in the non-weather-fascinated world would probably smack me, but i'm actually having to decide between invests and fabian and the chance to meet a bunch of freshman chicks on a trip. surest way to get a storm to come rolling in is to go on vacation so i miss the developments...guaranteed.
HF 2344z28august


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: what to do
      #10264 - Thu Aug 28 2003 07:50 PM

well if it wasnt for 94 i would say go rafting.

But 94 may sneak up into the gulf.

I say go rafting and bring the NOAA radio and play sick if it sounds like somethings brewing down there.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: what to do
      #10265 - Thu Aug 28 2003 07:51 PM

Go with the invest The other can be predicted, arranged and mitigated most any time

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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