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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: what to do
      #10266 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:01 PM

LOL... Go rafting. When you are older and wider.. or wiser, whichever or both. You will be glad you took the raft trip and didn't waste your time waiting for a storm that didn't happen. We and the tropics will all be here when you get back.

Bill


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
sure thing
      #10267 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:04 PM

Steve, you and I have tracked enough storms over the years to know, and especially after what's happen thus far this year in the tropics, nothing can be classified as a "sure thing," but that being said, I've grown a liking to our little wave in the WCar and IMO if anything develops in the GOM this weekend it will be directly related to this system...

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: what to do
      #10268 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:11 PM

HF are you serious? That's a no brainer... gotta go with the freshmen chicks... they'll be storms to track for the rest of your life... besides Fabian is days a way.... and you never know about the WC situation.... after a couple of years from now..... FRESHMEN CHICKS WILL NOT BE AN OPTION... but you still be able to get plenty of tropical action.... hehe

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Crown on hold
      #10269 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:17 PM

Squirralle, gonna keep the crown on hold for the time being... last time I opened up a new bottle of crown to initiate my storm preparations TD 9 fizzled out on us.... superstitious I am... hehe.... think I might brew me up a Long Island Tea tonight.... just to make sure I don't jinx 94L ... Off today thru Monday.... 5 days to track what sometimes is one on the busiest times of the tropical season... Labor Day weekend... and if 94L gets it going, it could just be that...

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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
94L
      #10270 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:25 PM

This from the 8:05pm discusion re 94L
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO DEFINABLE CENTER AT THIS TIME...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


might have TD11 soon


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 94L
      #10271 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:36 PM

Yeah, it's really looking like a healthy wave right now, IR is VERY impressive... surprised not many people talking about it... Like to hear from Jason for this thoughts... he's usually all over these things if they have any potential for his PC area...... the thing that is has going for it is that is has steady been organizing since yesterday afternoon... albeit slow, which is OK, it has not digressed any at all, which was the case for TD 9 and this wave (up and down cycles throughout their evolution (are lack thereof) when we were tracking it earlier in the week... I've scrubbed the Long Island tea... decided to open up a bottle of Robert Mondovi Chardonnay to break the Crown jinx.... and I've got a bottle of Fat Bastard I'm saving just in case it gets classified... no more Crown for a while... hehe

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: 94L
      #10272 - Thu Aug 28 2003 08:41 PM

i'm on it, but there is little to say at this point. NHC did a test model run on the area tonight, and it continues to be impressive in it's convection. Need to get a LLC to get my juices really flowing, but it is looking good at this point.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
trying to find a center...
      #10273 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:06 PM

trying to find a center using IR on our developing WC wave is not a very accurate method, however, from what I can tell reviewing the latest GOES IR the "center" of this system might be at 19.8N and 84.3 W (per the IR) and looks like its moving in a NW direction. Now if you view the the long range radar loop out of the Keys, it hints of a possible center NE of that location just below Cuba, and looks to be moving WNW but neither is what I would call reliable at this point... all premature speculation on my part as I really don't know where, or if it even has a center of rotation...

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Fabian
      #10274 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:11 PM

GFS has Fabian skirting the east coast of Florida from Palm Beach to Daytona Beach. I guess that means we will all be ok on the east coast of Florida. Very stormy day today with tropical wave moving through. Had 2.11" of rain at my house and gusty winds.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: trying to find a center...
      #10275 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:11 PM

Newest T-numbers on 93E:

29/0000 UTC 14.8N 121.8W T1.0/1.0 93E

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 94L
      #10276 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:22 PM

As Jason mentioned first NHC model runs are out on 94L and make this another Texas system, possible Cat 1.... if this comes to fruition it will be their third tropical system on the year... models change with time as we all know... but we've got a first call, should move WNW then gradually turn to the NW...... lower to middle TX... of course models are worthless if their initialization is poor, as with the case of most developing systems... My early guess it that is will be east of the first model runs... lets see what happens

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Kinda reminds you of another Girl huh
      #10277 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:27 PM

Well Frank been reading alot the last few days ,looks like life is about to get interesting.I tell you what Frank you know I'm only a 1/2 mile from your as the crow flies.Weeeell take that little trip ,leave out the Crown and I'll watch over it for you.I would say more about the system,but every time i open my mouth say N it goes S.You see I'm a jinx to.

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: trying to find a center...
      #10278 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:30 PM

The Caribbean has really taken off today, and seems to be hanging on tonight. Actually looks pretty impressive. Would love to hear thoughts on what this thing is going to do. Looks like a busy weekend in the tropics!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
No Jinx Zone
      #10279 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:35 PM

Hey Jav, I'm declaring this a NO JINX ZONE... so posters can feel free to comment and post their observations and forecasts as to what they feel 94L is going to do, or not going do for that matter.. I'd like to hear your thoughts on 94L... seems like no one wants to say anything, or go out on a limb with this one... I can't remember having such a strong wave in our back yard and no one really wants to speculate on it... strange... maybe we're all scared of jinxing it... but that takes all the fun out of what we do here...

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: 94L
      #10280 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:38 PM

Last year someone had a radar from Cancun. I couldn't find the radar but I did find current conditions.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/76590.html


--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

Edited by Lisa NC (Thu Aug 28 2003 09:42 PM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 94L
      #10281 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:42 PM

with a developing low off to its east you'd expect the wind to have some kind of northly component at Cancun... winds are ENE... as they should be, and pressure is low at 1010... good info Lisa... still more confirmation that the system in on track for continue organization

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Fabian intensity
      #10282 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:45 PM

I know...., I know...... everyone looking at 94L which is of more concern due to GOM proximity., looking at the Fabian intensity and track, it shows it not being a "cane" until the 31st. Think it will attain hurricane status a lot sooner than that looking at the latest SAT pics., CDO developing nicely.
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/10L.html

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 94L
      #10283 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:45 PM

Image is a little old, but here's the link:

Cancun Radar

ED


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: No Jinx Zone
      #10284 - Thu Aug 28 2003 09:47 PM

Well Frank it looks impressive if it can look like this tomorrow aftrenoon we might have something here.I see one player that looks strangly familiar,the ULL by Texas,Claudette.But then I think I see some kind of front maybe on WV loop approaching,would not this push to the E some.All on timing of course.This baby taken up alot of space isn't she.I think we all secertly called it a pissant the other day.Never goes to the first point does it.

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Some webcams
      #10285 - Thu Aug 28 2003 10:27 PM

Here is a link to some hurricane prone areas with webcams, for those of us who want to feel like were there.

http://www.webcamplaza.net/index_files/hurricane.html

PS thanks for the link to cancun radar!!! might be more useful tomorrow

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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