Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Seldom am I critical of because I know how difficult storm tracking can be with IR imagery, but this will be an exception. For the second day in a row, Nicholas will present another 'sunrise surprise'. During the night, the redeveloped and visible satellite images indicate that the center is actually about 75 miles due east of the advertised position at 09Z and is well embedded within the - not exactly a minor error in location.
Nicholas is currently stationary, however the average movement over the past 48 hours has been to the north northeast at 3mph. Intensity has increased again to at least 50 knots - perhaps even 55 knots. The southwesterly shear has relaxed a little and has become more southerly, with good outflow west through north, so the system still has a chance for some additional intensification. The anticipated westerly shear above 20N may not become as significant as earlier projections had indicated.
The big unknown relates to the trough to the west and whether or not it will pick up the system and move it off to the north northeast - if it doesn't, Nicholas could still be around for quite awhile.
ED
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Interesting convection moving into the Islands this morning. Also, several of the models have been maintaining low pressure in the extreme Western Caribbean. and have been the most bullish with development. That's a tough call. It looks like the kind of scenario where if something does develop down there, it's a timing thing. Will it oscillate between NW, N and NE depending on Ridges/Troughs passing by to the north? And when will it ultimately develop? If I'm in South Florida I'm watching for late week. It might be a Cuba and out scenario. It could be a Cuba then north. for two days developed the heck out of it. I'll go pull the 10/19 00Z run to see what it's doing today.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Last night's run wants to take a miss Florida scenario. Could be good for the surfers though.
10/19 00Z (PSU Model)
Hey Ed: For editing out my drunken "It's Pat" photo, you're going to get it in 2006! 
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nicholas is lingering, is all i'll say for that system. 94L has drifted into nicholas' envelope, very unlikely will remain a distinct entity. none of the central altantic swirls is holding down convection.. monsoon trough from colombia out into the east pacific is somewhat active, but more likely to spawn an eastpac system. there still isn't a 'trigger mechanism' for anything in the western caribbean in sight.
it figures to mention that is currently positive and suppressing convection in most of the basin. perhaps near month's end it will flip back.. if the basin still has enough shear-free places to support any kind of development. we may be finished after nicholas.. though i'm still holding my breath for a west carib system.
HF 1732z19october
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Unregistered User
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last Tuesday I posted that then TD19 may just Die out in the Altantic my gut feel still goes that way "NICHOLAS MAY NOT BE WITH US BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD". If you were going to look any where for a TD would be in the western , south carb.
Old Sailor,
Eric
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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according to the 2:05pm twd a small 1006mb low is at 11/78. there is plenty of convection stewing in the area, but i don't see any kind of central u.s. amplification.. usually what is needed to cause disturbed weather in the area to bulge northward and become seperate from the . of course there doesn't seem to be a lot of westward push at that latitude, so whatever is there may get to sit and wait.
however, looks like nothing will form prior to mid week; probably later.
HF 2024z19october
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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seperate=separate.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Nicholas is getting sheared to death; he may not even last 72 hrs. I really thought he'd make it to hurricane strength, and indeed, he was close (70> mph) but just not quite. As HF observed, 94L will probably never get named, and that's probably the end of the CV season. Still, stranger things have happened, and this has been one strange year. Thought for sure we'd see Odette, Peter & Rose...now we may be "lucky" just to see Odette. Fish one up on the Evil Empire...tonight we even the score. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Unregistered User
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Hank, You may be right just finished painting the bottom of my sail boat, like washing your car. So if we get a storm out of the western carb, guess I'm to blame..
Eric
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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the caribbean in october.. stuff down there tends to take time.. rarely a surprise from that development region. if it comes along, it won't be happening very quickly. nicholas may keep lingering, i'm not for the sheared-to-death solution.. at least not within the forecast period. don't think it will reach land, don't think it will die very soon either.
it has a penchant for not moving just lately... rarely do you see a storm stall out in the eastern atlantic, at such low latitude.
as far as baseball goes... check the off-topic column.
HF 0248z20october
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Nicholas is continuing to weaken, and could be just a TD later today, and definitely by tomorrow. He is still encountering shear, and that shear will only increase as he drifts ever so slowly northwestward. By 36 hours he is forecast to be dissapating, and he will be picked up by the next big trof.
trof
Looks like the Carribbean/GOM are about the only spots left for new development.
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The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it. ~Patrick Young 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Well looks like the season is winding down, even though we still have Nicholas still hanging around in the Atl. Been an exciting and pretty active season with Isabel & Fabian and others. This was my first year on this site and i've learned a lot and want to thank you all for the insight and answers to my questions. Unless something develops in the W. Carib, this will be my last post for this season., looking forward to an exciting, interesting and (busy?) 2004 season, take care y'all !
AJ
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Don't run to far AJ as I think we will get at least 1 more development in the West Carribean but I am thinking next week. I don't think Hurricane Season 2003 is quite over.
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Jara
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Hey Tropics Guy/AJ,
Glad you hung out for the season. You contributed quality posts all along, and I'm looking forward to 2004 as well. While isn't the biggest board on the web (FAR from it), it has earned its respect.
FWIW, I just finished looking at the PSU Genesis potential site. The 12Z Navy model should prove interesting for everyone in South and SW Florida.
Here's the link:
NOGAPS
NOGAPS is one of the first models to jump on the system that wants a NW-NNW movement over time. Earlier models all liked a Cuba and out scenario. So this one comes with some caution.
I read over on Storm 2K that Joe B apparently targeted today to be a good day for blowup down that a-way. I didn't read his comments, so I'm taking them as 2nd hand information.
As to other factors out there:
SST's - still strong enough for mid-grade development.
SOI - was positive 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th before going neutral for the 7th. Then it was 3 days of moderate negative then 2 in the tank. The negative influence should come into play most strongly around the 26th or 27th. That could mean a big old high across the Gulf South. It went back to neutral for 7 days after, and has again gone strongly negative. That tells me the artic air will be cut off, and maybe we'll have some ULL's and Pacific air progressing across the country. Anyway, the influence of the last big eastern trof should be out of here, and the country should be mild on the whole for a while. How this eventually plays into WC development remains to be seen.
AVN 48 hour shear maps show a strong jet across the central Gulf through the Bahamas peaking around 40 knots. That's not all that good for development, and it's trending stronger.
One favorable indication is the storm strength potential down there which shows sub 880, and is the strongest development potential area in the basin along with an area near 10/47
Maximum Storm Potential
Anyway, it's casual observation for me because I'll never see anything post October 20th originating in the Western Caribbean and coming north. It would appear to be a Florida and east (islands) problem.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcgts/wtnt80.txt
Also now the UKMET model jumps into this area but scroll down the link and see what positions it has for that potential system.But as Hank Frank said it will take it's time to develop but in my opinion it will be the last system we will see in the 2003 season.AJ dont go too far because sooner rather than later we will see development in the caribbean.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Hey Cycloneye & Steve, well, being that the models are picking up on some kind of development in the next few days in the W. Carib and possibly heading north, I won't go too far away from this site yet. Maybe we'll have one more (Odette) to track!, maybe this interesting season continues?.
Also, sure would like to hear from bobbi on this.
AJ
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nogaps has been trying to develop something in the western caribbean all month, or at least casually suggesting it most of the time. now the rest of the globals seem to be jumping aboard, though they differ greatly in details. there is broad low pressure down there, and with a very strong high forecast to build into the eastern u.s. later in the week, the corresponding pressure falls and synoptic gradient set up in the caribbean should put us into that classic setup that sometimes gives us a system. my take is that the models evolve the system too quickly, if it is to get going.. and not going with the NE solution has the system taking. that's all if it can actually get going, and the low pressure doesn't move onshore in nicaragua before the environment configures to support it. still, the ingredients are now there.. we could have us another system later this week.
after all, the eastpac has spawned patricia.. usually have an atlantic system inside 6-10 of an eastpac development.. this one went down with unfavorable, looking for the monsoon trough and synoptic factors to carve out a storm in spite of a large scale inhibiting pattern.
earlier i said i doubted nicholas would degenerate inside the forecast period.. looking like i'll miss that one.. really going downhill now.
HF 2133z20october
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Our little" use to was" is looking very healthy this morning, very well put together and shows no signs of going anywhere fast. Wonder what he will look like tonight, or, .... did I miss something and this is not Nicholas?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Hank....looks like you are okay this morning as NIck had a resurgence. I'm hearing conflicting information on the West Carib. Some say shear will not support anything for long and some say the shear is forecast to abate. Educate me please? Looks like the Caribbean is going to give us one more Hooray!!
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Jara
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I was all set to bury Nicholas yesterday, but today, he has risen from the dead. Looks like he'll make it through 72 hours after all. I'll have my crow with a side of fries. Since he's not going to affect any land (except maybe Greenland), it would have been nice if he had made it to hurricane strength. That would have bumped up everybody's numbers for the season. We may need to watch the tropical wave south of Cuba and the wave in Nicholas' wake.
Atlantic waves
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"The weather is like the government, always in the wrong."
-- Jerome K. Jerome
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Oct 21 2003 10:41 AM)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Ummm... I'm thinking. Just checking in. Watching.
Surprised at how much Nicholas blew up today.. and looking at the models (nogaps) and I'm thinking..
I'll give my thoughts later... but I'm paying attention.
At this point I would like to see Florida get hit by something just so we don't have to listen to Bastardi re-evaluate and re-analyze where he was wrong.. would be easier to just take a hit
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nicholas: forecast models very divergent again.. my take is that it is going to stay alive a few more days, and that it isn't going up and out like models have been saying for days. some have it going partway up and turning back, some have a gentle bend to the west. either way, expect a few more days of this slow moving storm. has flat ridging forecast for the weekend, so if it hasnt gone out by then, it will be moving west again.
low in the western caribbean seems to be going ashore in nicaragua.. not end of story though. wave to the east and flow across panama is still generating enough broad low pressure, and the westerlies are backing up and generating lots of convection north of colombia. think low pressure will consolidate south of jamaica next few days and loiter.. slowly organizing. still think development solutions are too fast.. until we see it starting then there's no point on speculating where it could go. mean steering flow will alternate between sw, s, se, and east over the next few days.. lots of compass points, probably erratic movement early on for any developing system.
HF 1914z21october
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Short update on Nicholas in the Storm Forum. Others have covered the SW Caribbean quite well - anything down there will take a long time to cook!
There is also a Typhoon of interest - highlighted in the Other Basins Forum. Hurricane Patricia in the EASTPAC is growing stronger and may head for Mexico in a few days.
Cheers,
ED
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Lots of recurvatures on the horizon. Parma and Ketsana off Japan are both anticipated to recurve. Both will be initially slow. Parma is probably a non-signal, but Ketsana telegraphs a trof in the eastern US in 6-10 days. conflicts slightly with only days 7, 8, 9 and 10 at neutral. Perhaps there will be a gentle trof or something.
Both Westpac storms are pretty slow at first, but particularly Ketsana.
My take? Long term implications are pretty much clouded. WAY outside chance of maybe a south Florida hit or storm moving out to sea just east of FL? Time will tell.
98 West is pretty odd out in the Westpac. You don't see storms develop there every day (see home page for more details).
SW Caribbean still has that witches' brew look to it. I guess that's appropriate coming up on Halloween.
Staying tuned for now.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Judging from the , it appears that the is getting more and more interested in the feature in the Carribean.
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Jara
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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may actually be tomorrow, but i'm aiming for friday for the disturbance in the caribbean to become a depression. low center seems to be evolving near 14/81.. not as broad as yesterday, not as elongated a windfield either. getting fairly certain that development is on the horizon. not ready to speculate on movement until a more defined system forms, but ready to say at first it should move erratically and perhaps drift NE.
nicholas is on the way out again, it seems. barring another convective fireworks show like the one it put up yesterday, probably on the slide. modeling has been variously retaining the system and phasing it with the trough moving to position in N-S fashion in the central atlantic. it may find a way to persist, but this is not a great likelihood.
over in the eastpac patricia changed its tune overnight and began losing its good convective signature... and is continuing west. how this will affect the upstream caribbean weather i don't know.. but no huge hurricane going up into mexico will alter the upper flow in the western caribbean.. look for a continue of the westerly jet, i suppose.
westpac activity suddenly booming.. thats our next pulse.. due to arrive in early november if the basin has any charge left in it.
HF 2300z22october
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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HF, Would this happen to be the feature that JB has been hawking to attack Florida? I know something is amiss because of the way my animals have been acting the last 24 hours. My reticent cats are beginning to pick on the alpha cats, and my birds were yaking away in the dark last night and usually the only time they do that is when we have an earthquake relatively close by, or extremely high on the Rictcher(sp) scale, like a 7 + in any country
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Hank Frank a question to you about the caribbean low. Do you think that this system may track NE or east like Lenny did in 99 because there will be a big trough that will exit the US.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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The bigger question is whether this will develop at all. The low is pretty close to land and the environment for it to develop in is small. There is a very strong Jet north of 15 degrees. The main thing is how long it will sit. If it stays there another 3-5 days then we may have something to threaten Florida or the Eastern GOM.
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Jara
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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hmmm.. no closer today. still an elongated system, focal point at the southern end just north of panama, perhaps another bit of energy up near hispaniola. either can close off a low.. at the moment its a long trough with vorticity maxes. it can stay like this for days.. figured on friday, will stick with that.. but low confidence. globals have generally backed off a bit (though euro now has something developing in a few days, which it previously lacked). would have to be a deep system to do a lenny, and the upper jet would have to stay put (pattern SHOULD evolve into something else).
note that as of 5pm is done with nicholas.. may be precocious, but its probably gone finally.
another odd outside chance of a system: globals like something back near the cape verdes. too late in the season, but if the trend persists....
HF 2122z23october
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Speaking of upstream, looks like generally warm conditions might persist for a while. Here are the last 4 days of :
20-Oct-2003 1012.30 1011.55 -13.80 -3.03 -1.04
21-Oct-2003 1009.70 1011.40 -29.60 -3.37 -1.30
22-Oct-2003 1010.48 1011.15 -22.90 -3.84 -1.56
23-Oct-2003 1010.90 1011.15 -20.20 -4.34 -1.86
I don't know if that will translate well, but absurdly cold air doesn't appear to be in the offing for the first couple of weeks of November.
TPS
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 107
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
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Any thoughts concerning the area south of Hispanola? Can hardly stand this board being sooooooo quiet......... Good weekend to all.......
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Invest 95L named for south of Haiti.
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Jara
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Ummm 24 hours this forum has been quiet means no activity but will there more action before november 30th? Time will tell what may happen but I dont see nothing even in the caribbean that may form into something in the near future.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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had an invest pop up friday.. and move quickly ashore over hispaniola. nothing closed off in the SW caribbean, that area remained a broad trough and broke down. there is yet more convection blooming there today.. however the flow across central america from the pacific isn't generating good surface convergence, and the northerly flow has also cut off as the trough has moved east and the next approaches.
right now looks like chances nicholas will break off from its the front it merged with and reacquire tropical characteristics are higher than another system developing in the next few days.
HF 1631z25october
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Looks like conditions are just not right for development in the Caribbean. Opportunity is slowly slipping away for this season. If nothing happens in the next couple of weeks, then I think we are shut down until next season. Really was optimistic! Was hoping for 1 more system ...
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Hey guys,
just been looking at the latest visible imagery from the GHCC pages... and i can clearly see a well defined LLCC located near 25N 64W. This is a baroclinic low on the same front that absorbed Nicholas. According to the TWD from , the centre of what was Nicholas is much further east, near 26N 54W. However, the have indicated that both low pressure centres may merge, and there is the chance of subtropical cyclone formation. Given the well defined LLCC located further west, this seems quite possible, as the remnant low of Nicholas is already producing gale force winds in the northern semicircle.
Any thoughts?
Additionally, feel free to take a look at the redesigned CMI website , including the new 'CMI ActiveAlerts' service
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
What kind of repercussions this will have on the 2004 hurricane season it is too early to say but one thing is certain.If el nino predicted is a strong one then the 2004 season will not be so active so let's watch in the comming months the equatorial pacific to see how strong el nino will get by next summer.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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For just how many months in a row has the CPC model predicted warm conditions that never materialized? And until we get more model support, I'm not buying the solutions of an El Nino just yet.
In addition...are there any strong signals from the Pacific that we are going to see any significant change in the next few months? Nope. And once spring has passed, the chances for El Nino development are usually nil.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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As of the September update, there was only one model trending warm. What I'd bet is that it cools a bit in the western zones (neutral to la nina) and warms a bit in the eastern zones (neutral to el nino) for a slight reversal of what we saw this year. Very interesting. I highly doubt a full blown El Nino year (ala 1997) would follow an essentially neutral pattern like we're in now.
As for fans of mega cold, you ain't getting it in Dixie. has stayed negative for several days. Following the return to neutral by 15 days, we got a cool front in here for 1 day. It's supposed to be back in the 80's by tomorrow - hopefully to stay. The type of pattern we are in (and it's for at least 8 of 9 days + 15 day lag time) would say that we're going to stay warm at least until November 12th as it stands now. This pattern also can be condusive to development in the WC if anything gets down there. Yesterday's front though, seems to have swept that area clean and into Florida for now.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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still some unexcited model rumblings about a central atlantic system (perhaps post nicholas, perhaps not), and the odd low pressure in the western caribbean. eastpac disturbance looking somewhat on track, with all the westpac activity last week it figures that ought to make a run at throwing things into gear over the next couple of weeks.. provided a few shelter areas from shear can assert themselves. i don't really expect anything else this season, but think it quite possible.
on another track altogether, around 11z tuesday morning a solar flare (or coronal mass ejection) went off.. and it's aimed at us. a stream of high energy particles are going to bombard the upper atmosphere, probably starting around noon tomorrow.. they ionize the upper atmosphere and cause anomalies in the earth's magnetic field. the results from this.. one is disruptions and failures in communications (sometimes power grids)..another is a tendency for aurora borealis to go haywire. that's what i want to see. eye to the sky tomorrow night, as here in the deep south we have a rare chance at seeing the northern lights.
it was overcast and sixties all day.. would be nice to see some stars.
HF 0544z29october
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
141 PM EST WED OCT 29 2003....
...BAHAMAS/SRN FLA/NRN CARIB...
ALL MODELS TAKE A DISTURBANCE WWD FROM REMAINS OF NICHOLAS
WWD UNDER RISING HTS AND DEVELOPING MID LEVEL HIGH FROM THE
CENTRAL GLFMEX TO OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. TIMING AND TRACK A
BIT DIFFERENT BUT ALL MODELS TAKE THIS SYSTEM AS FAR N AS FL
STRAITS TO AS FAR S AS SRN CUBAN COAST. HAVE DEPICTED THIS
FOR PRELIMS ALONG /UKMET TIMING/TRACK THRU FL STRAITS AND
INTO E CENTRAL GLFMEX. LARGE SFC HIGH NWD INCREASES GRADIENT
WINDS MAINLY S OF 32N. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS AND
ADVISORIES.
TROPICAL BULLETIN - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1850 UTC WED OCT 29 2003.....
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W/33W AND S OF 12N WILL MOVE ALONG
35W/36W BY 24 HRS...38W/39W BY 36 HRS...41W/42W BY 48 HRS...
44W/45W BY 60 HRS AND 47W/48W BY 72 HRS. THE MDLS FCST THIS
WAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BY 72 HRS.
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LI Phil
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Models are all over the place, but they all do forecast something with the remains of Nicholas:
Tropical Models
Global Models
Maybe we're not done just yet... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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Steve
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Pulled Bastardi's Obiwan explanation from a post over at S2K and reminded myself how much I miss Joe's insights for 50 cents a day. But I ain't re-upping til next storm season. Enjoy:
IS THE OBI WAN EFFECT GETTING READY TO CAUSE PROBLEMS? I think so. That effect, for you new readers, is something I have labeled when a non tropical system tears up a tropical system ( Darth Vader tearing up OBI WAN in Star Wars) but then the "force" re-appears when the energy and warmth from the Original system forces the system that destroyed it, to then become warm core itself. The new system that does it is Luke, and of course if successful it turns Darth ( the cold core system in the first place) to the other side. Though this happens quite often, the most famous, or infamous, example of it is the so called perfect storm.
The remnants of Nicholas are entrained into the elongated area of low pressure that is extending from south of Bermuda to northeast of Puerto Rico. The rapid development of the upper ridge near the southeast coast and the surface pressure rises around this system should prevent it from leaving and so a west to southwest move of the envelope of low pressure starts Friday.
The system will not be tropical at first, but has a good chance to become that, and perhaps beyond. The reasons are that in that part of the world, and the projected track is near or just south of Florida late Sunday and Monday and into the gulf, we have the water quite warm. In other words, its still summer. But an imbalance is created here by the build up pressures to the north because of the autumn season. The same ridge in summer would not have near the surface high developing. So one gets an enhanced east flow north of the low pressure which north of 25 north is a convergent wind and adds energy to the system. In addition the large elliptical shape of the system means it will draw more heat north into it. A large area of low pressure initially represents energy, that if concentrated can become quite formidable.
No one is saying, yet that is, this will be exactly like Kate in 1985 which hit 954 mb on Nov 19 or 20 in the southeast gulf that year. It is saying that the established extreme, and 3 weeks later, in a pattern very similar, means that this has potential to grow into a real menace if not for Florida ( remember Erika waited) then for the gulf. At the very least. the node of low pressure going by to the south of a building high will mean strong east winds develop across Florida with rough surf and beach erosion this weekend on the east coast beaches. The gut call is for the system to move at 15-20 mph Saturday into Monday, then slow with the final 200 to 300 miles being a slow painful challenging crawl next week into the central gulf. Then it will be a matter of how much things shift around and interact.
Most bullish on this is the UKMET. The Euro track is further south and across Cuba and the northeast tip of the Yucatan with a recurve further west. Suffice it to say a duck is on the pond in what is probably going to be another Pacific like elliptical hybridish look to development. Those of you that follow the tropical outlook know what I mean as I have pointed that out several times.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
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yeah, that thing is all over the globals (didn't bother with them for a couple of days due to bandwidth problems here). i'm behind the ball on this thing, sort of a surprise to see such model enthusiasm.. though it isn't there YET. friday is joe b's day, will see.
HF 2306z29october
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stormchazer
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There sure is a noticable consensus amoung the models this week. They tend to be fairly consistent from run to run. So will we have something or no?
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Jara
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stormchazer
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Nick as 19L is posted on the site. Is this old?
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Jara
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Storm Cooper
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Not sure, is weird at times...but.... the GOM has one last chance for some possible developement.... and if so it would most probably be old Nic crossing over 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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HanKFranK
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they're retaining the name for the invest area (which hasn't been persistent, but a complex low system the last couple of days). nicholas has been gone for a couple of days as the original entity. anything new forms.. really doubt it would retain the name.
HF 0518z30october
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Steve
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Grabbed some more Joe B from around the web:
Gulf Tropical threat. The complex hybrid that will develop in the atlantic does pose a threat to south Florida as at least a gale and rain producer and for the gulf coast centered on 91 west, plus or minus 100 miles as, in the extreme event, a hurricane threat the middle of next week. The idea is the low pressure that is southwest of Bermuda, the entrained remnants of Nicholas, starts west southwest the next few days. The deep tropical flow into the system consistently entrains warmer air. I really have no changes from yesterday on this. The call is for rough surf, beach erosion and gales at least in gusts for the Keys and the Florida coast south of West Palm beach Sunday into Monday, with a storm with no name, a new name, or re-named between Key West and Havana Monday morning. The system will slow and turn to the northwest Tuesday and then crawl to the coast Wednesday and Thursday. The crucial question of how strong is a tough one, but past storms like this that have moved WEST through the straits, if organized and warm core, have deepened even at this time of the year. Remember extreme patterns and this is, with record warmth and cold possible due to the high amplitude the next 5 days across the nation, begat extreme events. The system if it can develop the warm core out of the hybrid, doesnt have a voice saying, heh you cant do that its November. All it knows is gimmee the inflow and heat, keep the waters warm beneath my feet, set me up with the right ventilation and its look out gulf coast part of the nation. I certainly can not be the extremity of 1985's Kate a name that should have been retired as that had to be one of the most impressive November weather events of all time a 954 hurricane around Nov 20 over the southeast gulf. The idea is the low level system here entrains heat and then it warms the center, becoming warm core within the overall cold low. If the cold low backs away, then it becomes truly warm core and the chance for that grows the further west it gets. The track is a problem since if it avoids Cuba it has a chance to crank. Yesterdays post is worth a read on this
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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doug
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just thumbed through the global models, and read the TPC's twd and this still yet unformed system seems to be taken seriously...Bastardi is basing all his on the ukmet I think which does show a well defined storm in the central gulf coast on Wednesday...today therefore will have to be a day wherein we see some definite signs of coallesence or else this thing may not go...I just viewed the sat loops and note an upper feature ne of puerto rico that looks rather vigorous..however the suggested upper energy near the carolina coast would be the warming energy to take this to the surface, but I don't see that in the sat images I saw...also the locus of the upper low is much further south than suggested. The initial location by suggested sw of bermuda ...in other words I think a lot has to happen yet to suggest this forcast will become reality... lets all watch this area with higher than normal interest though. EDS.
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doug
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stormchazer
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An exert from TWD Doug is refering to:
OTHER FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF PUERTO RICO WHICH IS
ENHANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LOW IS
PART OF A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG 67W TO JUST W OF
BERMUDA. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME SORT OF
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT FROM THE
FORMATION OF A STRONG UPPER LOW SW OF BERMUDA ENHANCED BY A
PIECE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY NEAR N CAROLINA. THIS AREA BEARS
WATCHING JUDGING FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS... EVEN IF THINGS ARE
RATHER QUIET AT THIS MOMENT.
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Jara
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Steve
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doug:
>>Bastardi is basing all his on the ukmet I think which does show a well defined storm in the central gulf coast on Wednesday
It's not just the UKMET. The , and are also hinting the same. The kicks a resulting low out to sea, but it appears to be the only one. Personally, I'd be amazed if something were to hit the LA coast in November. I'm sure it's happened before (hasn't everything?) but it would be a rare event even if only a TD. To me, anything that gets into the Gulf in late October or early November just has to kick off between NNE and due East. And lets say this, for Bastardi to call 100 miles either side of 91 West without anything even being evident is pretty amazing in itself.
The only thing lending support is the (which FWIW has flipped back strongly positive to a 20.30 today after hitting +3.20 yesterday following 14 days of neutral negative).
Anyway, if this all goes down, I'd be dumbfounded.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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These are the global models to which Steve is referring:
Global Models
They are all in strong agreement in getting a storm into the Gulf...we'll see. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
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NRL Home Page
Hunting and pecking around the web for ideas, I wonder if Tropical Storm Melor provides a teleconnection? Melor is forecast by the to hit the northern Philipines and then recurve WEST of Taiwan. It isn't anticipated to grow beyond a 45 knot TS with Gusts to 55 knots, but it's placement is interesting. While you're checking out Melor, take a look-see at Parma. Rarely do you see a system loop right back onto its previous track. That's pretty wild.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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doug
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there was a late season storm Juan a few years back that went in as a cat1on the central gulf coast. It through off one significant squall line to the east which hit the entire west coast of florida, much as a cold front would, and caused hurricane conditions for about 20 minutes and several feet of tidal flooding, then it was over...I think this was an October storm however.
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doug
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doug
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Just looked it up Juan was 25Oct.-1Nov.
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doug
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Steve
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Right. We had a lot of squalls for Juan. It hung around a bit. Every time it would rain, the streets would instantly fill up and then drain off 20 minutes later. Juan reminded me a bit more of a winter storm south of any steering currents. In the end, I think it dragged down winter behind it (then again, that was 18 years ago).
1985 was an insane year for the Gulf - much like this one. The only difference this year is that we never got anything of real substance except in Texas.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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javlin
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It will be interesting to see if something comes to light of this ,hardpressed to see it though.You might go figure been stocking the old freezer lately though.I have to agree with you Steve if it did can the Gulf waters support it adequatly.Fall seem to arrive a little early this year this next 7>10 days being an exception.
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stormchazer
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Checked GOM SSTs earlier this morning. Mid-80's in southern Gulf. At 80 in mid-to-upper gulf. 78-80 degrees along the coast.
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Jara
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Cycloneye
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Recon may go on saturday to check it out but the question is if it will be pure tropical,subtropical or hybrid and how strong it may get.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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javlin
Weather Master
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Definitly supportive then Jara just whether something comes to light or not.
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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Florida
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just checking the latest computer models, and five of six that i saw showed something in the bahamas on sunday
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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1
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Kevin
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LOL...just checking in...looks as if those who were predicting development have a good shot at being correct...low pressure south of Bermuda really starting to gain some shower/thunderstorm action this afternoon...building ridge...low pressure area rather large...rain, at least, for Florida this weekend...lots of hw to do...will try to check in later...bye...
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Steve
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>>will try to check in later...bye...
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 30 2003 10:20 PM)
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doug
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Looking for coalesence of the factors today and there was some increase in coverages in the general area identified by the 11:30 . I note three things off the SATPics... the LLC of former Nicholas alleged by the to be about 215 miles south of Bermuda. There is what looks to be a more vibrant surface at approx 25N and 57 W or about 300 or so miles ne of Puerto Rico and the upper low over Hispanola. All of the activity in this area increased today. There is certainly a lot of energy out there and this will be very interesting to watch develop. EDS.
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doug
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LI Phil
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Interestingly, all the global models now forecast this system to make it into the gulf, and all of them take it south of Florida (except the , which sends it west through the Keys).
Global Models
A little late season action...or just a tease?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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HanKFranK
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if i had to say what all this hinges on, i'd say its whether the surface low pressure focusing south of bermuda entrains a lot of the heavy subsidence to its west and northwest, or dives down below it. once a system gets going, its hybrid nature should keep the convective feedback going in spite of marginal conditions.. i don't think it could be purely tropical until it's near cuba or south florida.. which is still all speculative at this point. there's plenty of energy getting ripped off to the east too, models developing low pressure out of it as well. it's going to be entraining wave energy (the eastward moving component) so maybe it will try something too. then there's something going on under the upper trough in the caribbean.. how that plays into things further north is another variable. fairly complex situation overall.. have to see which one takes the wheel.
HF 2320z30october
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Steve
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NRL Home Paqe
Big change in the 's track for Melor. They're curving it west after previously wanting to hook it around Taiwan. Non-recurvature downstream implications for a major-league ridge in or off the SE US 6-10 days - not that we didn't anticipate it.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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Interesting...definitely interesting. Nice to see yall are keeping on top of things.. nice to be on top.
Will check back tomorrow and see whats up.
Complicated loops...I see the models... just keep watching.
Thinking we get the O storm..not see how this could be the N storm... I do.. I don't, think it would be a cop out for to sort of say "hit the road Nick..and don't come back unless you get your.._____ together" vs just give it a new name.
Then would look maybe 7 or 8 days down the road for something to develop..what I don't know but think November will bring something else.
As someone said somewhere...wierd years bring wierdness and this is about as wierd as it gets.
Bobbi/lois for those of u who like to play make believe
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LoisCane
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Hate to sound redundant but wondering?
steve...do you know?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Steve
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He usually posts on the forum instead of the news. I always forget to go over there. I'm sure he's checking out the options.
Btw, it looks like there's an outside shot we both might see something out of this one. I'm down with it.
I still need a hit on Florida (2) and/or a dual landfall to get an solid A on my landfall guesses. We'll see.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LoisCane
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I always forget to go to the forum..just automatically check around here.
Local news with Kamal spoke of a system, an organized system of some kind... coming across Florida in the very short term. He basically said to wait and see which vortex takes over and forms..but that one would..and then it would head our way.
My only question is in the timing and in the ability for something to develop and go warm core with all these winds and the pressure gradient.
Windy and beautiful in Miami tonight...to lie here and listen to the wind is next to heaven... leaves rustling... feels fresh and free out there after weeks of hot humid airless days.
Agreed on 85 by the way. Lots a parrallels. A funny year and a year of changes. Juan was later... much later and imagine we will see another storm before its over.
Got to give Bastardi credit, he's got guts and he puts his thoughts out there on the line to be tested in ways we can't match. If we are wrong...we feel silly but well..its all so complex. He puts his mouth where your money is and if he is wrong it hits him in the wallet.. gutsy and worth some respect on that basis alone. Let alone he is usually right or at least you can say with him ...where there is smoke there is some kind of fire... he might be off days out but he is right on the basic trend more often than not.
take care gang, nice to see you all
bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LI Phil
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Boss...De Plane...De Plane. They're going to check our little disturbance out...tomorrow. still has it as 19L - Nicholas. Guess it's gonna be an interesting weekend.
Recon
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"The weatherman is the only person who can be wrong every single day and still have their boss tell them see ya tomarrow." 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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doug
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There probably won't be a Recon on saturday as this system if it becomes tropical will not arrive until 48-72hours. I agree with HankFrank that the subsidence over the area of the surface low impedes any significant transition for now, but the surface low is definitely diving southward and the moisture is building up from the S an SE , and as it puills that in and warms the environment some convection could begin to fire. Then a recon would be welcome. The prospects of a deepening low/gale center into the florida straits on the weekend with the potential for tropical development, and the word "hurricane" in the GOM has been mentioned., is scary. Nobody is looking for that this time of year.
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doug
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LI Phil
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069
NOUS42 KNHC 311600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1100 AM EST FRI 31 OCTOBER 2003
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z NOV 2003
TCPOD NUMBER.....03-152
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 01/2000Z A. 02/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0119A NICHOLAS B. AFXXX 0219A NICHOLAS
C. 01/1530Z C. 02/0800Z
D. 26.0N 69.0W D. 24.0N 74.0W
E. 01/1900Z TO 01/2300Z E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Mike
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A quote from our friends at the Air Force 45 Weather Squadron: "There is a tropical system brewing out in the Atlantic. Models are all forecasting the storm to move SW toward S FL. If this occurs, we will see wind gusts to 25 Kts tomorrow, wind gusts to 30Kts by Sunday evening and then 35kts Monday as it passes to our South. If the storm tracks further N then winds could be stronger. Storm will most likely be a Tropical Storm when it approaches, but a Cat 1 hurricane is not out of the question given the warm waters off of our coast."
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LI Phil
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new recon
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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garyb
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National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS (AL192003) ON 20031031 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
031031 1800 031101 0600 031101 1800 031102 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.6N 66.5W 26.9N 66.8W 27.6N 67.5W 28.1N 68.8W
BAMM 26.6N 66.5W 26.1N 67.1W 26.4N 67.8W 26.8N 68.8W
A98E 26.6N 66.5W 25.8N 66.8W 26.4N 66.7W 27.3N 68.7W
LBAR 26.6N 66.5W 26.2N 66.8W 26.7N 66.5W 27.3N 65.9W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
031102 1800 031103 1800 031104 1800 031105 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.2N 71.0W 29.4N 77.1W 32.3N 83.0W 36.4N 79.3W
BAMM 27.3N 70.8W 29.1N 77.2W 32.4N 83.1W 36.6N 80.6W
A98E 27.5N 70.6W 26.3N 73.1W 26.3N 74.3W 27.2N 77.5W
LBAR 27.5N 64.9W 27.2N 62.4W 24.6N 61.8W 22.6N 62.2W
SHIP 44KTS 44KTS 36KTS 26KTS
DSHP 44KTS 44KTS 30KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.6N LONCUR = 66.5W DIRCUR = 200DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 28.0N LONM12 = 66.0W DIRM12 = 216DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 28.9N LONM24 = 65.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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LI Phil
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Only question now: if this system makes it to TS strength, will it be Nicholas or Odette? 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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doug
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So I was wondering why the had not called me and offerred, but hey what do I know any way?...I think they called this early because of the threat potential and need the METS to strart umping this thing...the model numbers are sure divergent.and further North than advertised. EDS.
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doug
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Brad in Miami
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Gary B: re: the fact that the tropical model runs call it a TD, and not a test run, that's been the case all along (i.e., on all tropical model runs), and doesn't indicate any change of thought. Look back at the 28th, 29th, and 30th runs.
Doug: although the tropical models are pretty far north (and the LBAR basically out to sea or stalling west), aren't all (or at least most) of the global models pretty tightly packed, going more or less through the straits/over the Keys?
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Brad in Miami
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I mean "stalling EAST," not west (i.e. out in the Atlantic) re: LBAR.
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garyb
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Thanks Brad, I jumped the gun a little
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LI Phil
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Tropical Models
Global Models
Regional Models
Ensemble Models
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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Cycloneye
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There is some confusion about what name it will be if it develops.If that circulation is from the old Nicholas then IMO it will be named Nicholas but if a new low forms then it would be Odette but let's wait for it to form first.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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the old nicholas vorticity max became very obscure in the larger area of low pressure a couple days ago.. whether the current dominant vortex in what is still being tagged 19L is in fact the original nicholas is iffy at best. but, the tag is being kept.. so even though has a history of renaming systems when they lose that much definition (iris to manuel in 2001 as it crossed into the eastpac and another vorticity center seemed to take over).. this may again be nicholas.
it hasn't actually redeveloped yet, and i'm not absolutely certain that it will... making a decent show but not organizing very quickly right now.
HF 2239z31october
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