bman
Unregistered
|
|
almost looks like its moving more easterly on Radar!
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
|
|
It does appear to be moving east. Maybe a little north of east. This could have huge implications for the NO area.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
Looking at the latest radar loop Bill is definitely moving more to the NE or even ENE during the past 30 minutes or so.. interesting developments as the center impacts the LA coast... we are getting a pretty good feeder band right now with winds gusting to 30K... and driving rains... awesome
seems like these systems always have a little surprise in store for us before they dissipate....
|
Carl
Unregistered
|
|
...raining hard here in prairieville--not much wind though. Interestingly, the latest recon fix had the storm at latitude 29.0, which is further SOUTH than the 29.2 given in the last advisory.
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
|
|
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.80stp/si.kmob.shtml
This is the doppler rainfall estimates for the last 24 hours in NW FL. Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties have 6-8" rain. Look out for SERIOUS/copious rains as advertised last week. Jackson Co., MS and St. Tammany Parish remain under the gun for the time being.
The heaviest band is between Houma and Cocdrie. That well could be our last major effects from Bill, though another band is forming to our SE and wrapping in between us now (so we might get two).
The major problems shift east for at least 2-3 days. Moisture will continue to feed up through the Gulf into the SE. Biggest extreme is somebody east of the LA/MS line is going to end up with a rainfall amount over 20-22" by Wed. ngiht. You read it here first.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
From what I can tell viewing the GOES vis sat and radar pixs it looks like the center has jogged to at least 91.1W and about 29.3N... at least 40-50% of the center is still over water... and the center appears to be basically south of Houma now....
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
what I think is happening with Bill is that the center is starting to fill in as it interacts with land, however, it still appears have an easterly component to its movement
we're getting some pretty good rain and winds at SSC right now.
at its present heading he might end up going right over New Orleans... and it gonna take him a while to get there too
|
57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
|
|
Good to have back up and running, I was starting to get withdrawals. LOL Hey, you all stay dry over there, sounds like a lot of rain is still to come and if it slows down you may have to get your boats out. Have you experienced much wind at this point? Keep the post a comin. Stay safe!
Toni
--------------------
TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
|
|
We think alike. I live Birmingham, and it looks to me like we could be in for 2 days of rain. We received a heavy squall earlier. ONly lasted about 15 minutes, but I would estimate at least .75 inches fell in that period. Has been steady rain since. Like everyone else, we don't need this rain. Wehad the 2nd wettest May on record and a decent amount in June.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
Jackson Co MS has received at least 10-12" of rain thus far... Looking at the radar pix they are in line for another heavy feeder band which might add another 4-6 inches... Steve, you might be right, some locations may see at least 16-20 inches of rain before all is said and done.... especially with the jog to the east, which doesn't help the MS coast any
we're getting some hard driving rains and winds right now, what you'd expect from this kind of system... the forces of nature are a sight to behold.....
|
Young Droop
Unregistered
|
|
Finally! The sites back....Here in Gulf Breeze...North of Pensacola Beach I have measured 6 inches of rain and its still coming...The storm is slowing and drifting ENE...will that affect me over here in Pensacola? I know the center wont make it here...But will I be in the path of some of these huge feeder bands? Nice to be back
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
From what I can tell looking at the latest rad loops the system is moving off to the NE... on its present track it should cross right over Lake Pontchatrain, or very close to it... this track is farther east than predicted by the .... if he stays on his present course...
|
jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
|
|
Agreed and appears it will take a while too. NO could be in for around 10 more hours of torrential rain.
|
Young Droop
Unregistered
|
|
Hate to ask so many question's but I been lookin at the radar...well do ya'll think if the storm is shifting alittle east will that bring more of them feeder bands into my area..Pensacola Beach.
|
Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
|
|
Hey guys,
i am in agreement with the apparent ENE motion of the centre. Radar from NO shows this motion quite nicely too. Probably due to land interaction i would guess. Centre developed quite nicely shortly before it started to move on shore, with radar and satellite showing an eye-like structure. Radar still shows this, but it is cloud filled on the visible satellite imagery now. I think the centre may cross over or very near to NO in about 4 hours time. Given the amount of rain associated with this system it looks like parts of LA and MS may see similiar to what Texas saw with TS Allison!
Keep safe folks!
Regards,
--------------------
Rich B
SkyWarn UK
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
my guess is that after slowing down a little early this afternoon, it appears Bill has picked up a little momentum and is moving at a steady pace off to the NE... I'm not sure if you'll get any more action from him or not if he continues to move NE... of the three dominant feeder bands showing up on radar at the moment, two are getting ready to pound the MS coast and the other is just off the center of Bill off to N and E... however, with tropical system, never rule anything out.
The center is pretty much over land in the Houma area and its still heading toward Lake Pontchatrain.... I don't think is going to weaken very rapidly, this part of LA is very low, swampy and recon est a 998 mb during its last recon, and it still has the opportunity to pull a lot of energy from the GOM ...
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
|
|
Scroll back to page 1. I even have a post entitled "Watch out NW FL." Otherwise, keep the umbrella handy.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Young Droop
Unregistered
|
|
So by somewhere east of LA / MS line you mean S. Ala. and NW Fl. Gotcha...by the way I live in Santa Rosa County and we got hammered frmo about 7 till 11...I measure 5 1/2 inches in my gauge.
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
|
|
Definitely Santa Rosa and Escambia are in for several inches + over the next 24 hours.
This is the big moment here. We had a gust approaching 40 about 10 minutes ago. Clouds are still coming in from the SE, but I'd susepct by next hour or two, that's going to change.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 110
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
|
|
In Mobile, we are having a down pour!
Southern
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
