Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


TD-like #94L has moved inland over Central America with heavy rains and gusty winds. Wave approaching Antilles but shear is high.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 6 (Michael) , Major: 6 (Michael) Florida - Any: 6 (Michael) Major: 6 (Michael)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | >> (show all)
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
New Vortex Msg...
      #7310 - Thu Jul 10 2003 08:29 PM

Interesting....pressure up to 1013...yuck.

Center Fix 19 33 N, 85 32 W...Max winds 39 kts in the E quad.

Claudette really has been knocked down this afternoon.



--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Thu Jul 10 2003 08:34 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: New Vortex Msg...
      #7311 - Thu Jul 10 2003 08:34 PM

NHC has seemed pretty baffled today.

Even if she weakens, she'll more than likely fire up in a big way before long.

I'm not sure that the NHC has a very good feel on where she's going at the moment.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
I gotta agree HF
      #7312 - Thu Jul 10 2003 08:40 PM

South Texas is looking like the most logical place for landfall. I'm getting more convinced that the big high pressure behind the trof (that's what it is droop) is going to at least block any northward motion for a few days after a point if not downright steer it westward. Local mets say the high should reach the Gulf Sat or Sun.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: New Vortex Msg...
      #7313 - Thu Jul 10 2003 08:41 PM

I think she will shake it off, look at her past. The LABAR 00 has shifted east ( just as JK stated they may ) Also the 12Z NOGAPS is (was) a little funky. Hang in there Jason and keep feeding back

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: New Vortex Msg...
      #7314 - Thu Jul 10 2003 08:43 PM

You sure they have the right vortex up?

It actually looks better to me than it did a couple hours ago...

Link-----> http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trpirfl1.html

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: New Vortex Msg...
      #7315 - Thu Jul 10 2003 08:53 PM

It was the 2357z pass thru the east side, so that new convection on that side was just firing as they passed thru..they might have been ahead of the new development....subsequent passes should clear that up.

The big news in that pass was the big west jump in the center fix. Just looked at the new 00Z trop models and they are still trending east with the LBAR headed to the same place Bill made landfall.



--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: New Vortex Msg...
      #7316 - Thu Jul 10 2003 08:53 PM

Pressure can't be 1013. Current pressure at Cozumel is already less than that and it is 1013 at Grand Cayman which is far from the center.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: New Vortex Msg...
      #7317 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:07 PM

It can be...but remember this is a fluid situation...there could be multiple centers and recon could have found an older decaying one. There are several possible solutions for the higher pressure report.

I'll admit, I've never seen a storm like this one.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Young Droops ??
      #7318 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:07 PM

Good questions, Young Droop. I'll try and answer them to the best of my non-meteorologist ability.
What you are looking at over Texas is a trough associated with a low pressure system in the upper Midwest. Whether or not that effects Claudette depends on how far south the trough goes. It does not look to me as if this one will dig down far enough to sweep her up. However, there is another area of low pressure just entering New Mexico.
With a hurricane, timing is everything as far as landfall (or no landfall) goes. The TS/Hurricane is going to take the easiest route it can, and if the high pressure system doesn't move, it will go around it. I look at it this way: I'm standing in front of a mountain and need to get to the other side. I'm not in any hurry, so I have to decide whether or not I want to climb all the way up the mountain, wearing myself out, or should I just walk around the base of the mountain, which is much less work? Make sense?
All of this, of course, will depend on the jetstream and how it affects the the low and high pressure areas. If the jet stream is further north, the ridge/trough won't reach that far south, and vice versa.
You were correct when you said you saw the trough, but I don't believe that their is any dry air in there. Dry air is depicted by an orangie-looking color on the WV images. So here are some of the things you have to look for when trying to determing the path of a storm:
*High pressures/ridges & where they go or don't go
*Low pressures/troughs & where they go or don't go.
*How strong the low pressure/high pressure areas are
*The jetstream and it's plan of action
*How fast the storm is moving
*How strong the upper level winds are
There are probably lots of other things too, that I haven't mentioned because I don't know about them.
An easy way to look and see where the low and high pressure systems and their ridges and troughs are is on Weather.com, and it will give you a good indication of what the storm will do.

I hope this helps. If anyone finds anything incorrect in my post, feel free to correct me---I'm still learning, too.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Young Droop
Unregistered




Re: Young Droops ??
      #7319 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:18 PM

Hey Thanks Coleen, that was a big help...Actually that was exactly what I wanted to find out so thanks alot.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Young Droops ??
      #7320 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:19 PM

Colleen thanks for that reminder. I forget from year to year what to look for on these storms. I know it is too soon to tell yet but it is starting to remind me of October 2001. I have a heck of a time remembering the name of that storm. All I know is that we expected it to hit on a Sat or Sunday and we were at the office shutting everything down on Friday instead. By the time we got everything secured, the worst of the storm had passed. I am on call out duty again this year for battening down the hatches since I live about 3 miles away from the office.

I am hoping that this turns into a little rain for us and no trouble for anyone else.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Young Droops ??
      #7321 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:22 PM

You are very welcome. I'm just passing along what other people taught me.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: New Vortex Msg...
      #7322 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:22 PM

Great point. You expressed that at 6 also. I am by far an expert but have lived on the G coast all my life... this is getting a little strange. There is some serious timimg issues coming up as for direction but I think she will be a well built storm. We all on the G coast need to watch as this has been said by most here!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Mary.....
      #7323 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:27 PM

I believe that the name of that storm was Elena. I know it was during football season, if that's any help.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Young Droops ??
      #7324 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:31 PM

Hey, that was a pretty good rundown! Pretty cool indeed. You may want to send that in a fill in a the blank test format to... well never mind. I think it is great

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Young Droops ??
      #7325 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:37 PM

Thanks Colleen, I needed that!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jth at home
Unregistered




West Again
      #7326 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:38 PM

Looks like she may be moving WNW again and starting her re-strengthening. She looks to graze the NE tip of the Yucatan in the next 12 hours or so, then who knows. Still think it is completely a Mexico problem, but I have been wrong many times before.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bill
Unregistered




Mary---
      #7327 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:43 PM

The storm was Gabrielle, I believe.

IHS,

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bill
Unregistered




Colleen
      #7328 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:48 PM

Great post to young droop////

Elena was in 85....I spent 48 hrs in my EOC on the Fl west coast---I called the turn toward the Fl west coast 2 hrs before NHC or anyone else picked it up, recalled all my people---and then watched the you know what hit the cyclonic system ( AKA the fan)....that was a close call for Tampa Bay.

IHS,

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bill
Unregistered




Re: Mary.....
      #7329 - Thu Jul 10 2003 09:49 PM

Labor day, 1985

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 17 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 20089

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center