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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Climatology
      #7380 - Fri Jul 11 2003 11:27 AM

Climatology now shows that in the past, 1 storm went into Mexico, 1 went into Texas and 4 went into Florida. This is based on July T.S. in this location previously.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Carl
Unregistered




Re: Hey Loiscane and Javlin
      #7381 - Fri Jul 11 2003 11:27 AM

Hey Frank, Betsy's large eye passed right over us in LaPlace. I was too you at the time to remember, but my father told me that our neighbors kept chickens in a coop, and when they went out to look around during the eye, all of the chickens were dead from being slammed against the pen they were in. True story.

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Andreas
Unregistered




Re: Claudette Undecided
      #7382 - Fri Jul 11 2003 12:01 PM

Hi ,
I am following very steady all ur guys comments on Claudette and I am learning a a lot, but now I do have a question ..?? I am here in Cancun, we got as expected some rain...about 3 inches so far but no wind at all since 5 am ? max winds are at 6 miles ..how can that be ???

thks

Andreas


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Carl
      #7383 - Fri Jul 11 2003 12:05 PM

good story.... I have a Camille story... we had two dogs and put them in our garage during the storm... water got up to about 6 feet in our garage... after the storm the next day I went checked to see if they were alive... figured they both drowned.. found them barking like hell up on top of a large cabinet.. they managed to get on top of the cabinet and rode out the storm... smart dogs....

All tropical models but one now have C impacting the Northern Gulf Coast... if IF IF IF IF, they show that trend for the next 24 hours, I might start thinking about firing up the grill for that crow... But I bet ya they change again before tomorrow... hopefully


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javli24
Unregistered




Re: Hey Loiscane and Javlin
      #7384 - Fri Jul 11 2003 12:07 PM

sounds like time for a big batch of fried chicken.haha.I was 9 at the time of camiile and the two things I remember most was 1)the next morning out KAFB we opened the doors on the second story of Dolan Hall and as far the eye could see blown rear windows.The old 65 chev we had was ok though we had a plan rust hole in floorboard.2) first time I ever ate steak.The only house on block with gas stove.I come from a family seven and we good that week.All that food from the neighbors house came our way.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Frank
      #7385 - Fri Jul 11 2003 12:11 PM

I told you when she was born she was gonna be trouble. If her parents (NHC) were going to send out a family newsletter, it would probably read like this:

Dear Friends & Family,
Here's an update on our little one, Claudette. Since she was born on Wednesday, she has surprised us with her speed and learning curves. She completely missed walking and began running at the age of 2. She's a fiesty one, too. Claudette is a child who will more than likely beat the odds and overcome obstacles that would be the demise of her siblings. Yesterday, she played "hide and go seek" with and Aircraft Recon plane by moving all over the place. She likes to play "TAG! You're It!" with weather watchers and she usually wins. Just when you think she's ready for a nap, she pops her eye open! Well, one thing's for sure, her godfather, Max, is pulling what is left of his hair out! Will update soon!
Love,
Mr. & Mrs. N.H. Center
Miami, Florida



--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
CDO / Eye??
      #7386 - Fri Jul 11 2003 12:14 PM

Hey guys,
just checked the latest available IR and Visible imagery from GHCC (1555UTC) and both seem to show a possible CDO or 'eye' developing near 21.8N 86.2W, well off the northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and quite a bit to the east of the advisory position! Of course, i may be seeing things!

As for course, i reckon we may see a landfall somewhere between Morgan City, LA, and Pensacola, FL! JUst a guess though

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: CDO / Eye??
      #7387 - Fri Jul 11 2003 12:27 PM

I saw that, too, Rich. Doesn't look to me as if Claudette is moving much, either. I think there's a fight going on between the H and the trough right now, so where she goes now is anyone's guess. When is the next Recon report suppossed to come out?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: CDO / Eye??
      #7388 - Fri Jul 11 2003 12:35 PM

Hey Colleen,
nice family note there

I was wondering about Recon too... they are sending back obs, but we havent seen a Vortex message since last night... that CDO like feature is still there too, and she doesnt seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere either!

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: CDO / Eye??
      #7389 - Fri Jul 11 2003 12:40 PM

I see what you mean i see it best under color enhancement.If so this something way E of last nos..I have to agree with colleen the loops make it look ststionary.The storm seems to becoming more symetrical by appearancealso esp. if that feature does become the center.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: CDO / Eye??
      #7390 - Fri Jul 11 2003 12:44 PM

Maybe the NHC is waiting to release the info for some reason. To make sure they have several obs before announcing the 2pm position/strength/direction? I don't know. Or maybe they are trying to see how the obs compare to the models this morning, since they were moving her more north and east.
I really don't have a clue.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Out of the Woods!
      #7391 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:05 PM

I just heard on our local news here that we are out of the woods because the big "C" will either go straight west or straight north. That puts us out of the way no matter where it goes. How about that!

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Out of the Woods!
      #7392 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:07 PM

seems like we are going through center reformation again!

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Out of the Woods!
      #7393 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:08 PM

Hey Shawn,

Doesn't that mean you are sure to get hit now? LOL.

It looks like one of two things is possible in the next couple of hours. Either (A), the center reforms NE of its current location, or (B) the center pulls out of its skin on its trek WNW. Right now, I'm leaning toward the second option. When you view a visible sat. loop, you can begin to see the low level circulation disengaging from the CDO feature. Now, Claudette has a history of spinning back under her main energy source, so she may well reform NE, but right now she's looking awfully ragged to me.


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Out of the Woods!
      #7394 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:10 PM

well, the local mets have thier opinions as well as we do, granted they have more years and experience, but bottom line is, this storm hasnt stuck with any given model or path yet, so why would it now?

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Kimmie at work
Unregistered




Re: Out of the Woods!
      #7395 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:25 PM

Looks like we have some kind of jog to the north! Probably another center relocate! Geez, this girl is like riding a roller coaster. I had been saying that she would strike around Galveston, but looking at her today, I would say more likely La/MS state line! Frank, hope you have some hot dogs to put on the grill! Kimmie in BR

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Young Droop
Unregistered




Re: Out of the Woods!
      #7396 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:31 PM

Its very intresting what I miss when I sleep in. It looks like Claudette will choose between 2 tracks to take...A NW then due W track towards Texas...Or one NNW up toward's the Central Gulf Coast say between Morgan City and Pensacola. Im not going to choose yet though. As long as the storm keeps on a NNW path that gives it a better chance of being picked up by the trough right? For a few it look's like it may have stalled but is now moving NNW again. So I guess anything can happen so I'll be watching.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Out of the Woods!
      #7397 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:34 PM

Well Claudette to most of us mets has continued on right on schedule and also with the models. Although alot feel she is going crazy,she isnt at all. Claudette is right on path in where i feel she should be as of Weds morning. I stated in the last column on pages 3 and 6 that i couldnt see her more then 45-50 mph as you reached the Yucitan. Infact I still couldnt find any real bouy or ship or land reports showing surface winds in excess of 50mph. Though the NHC has more info, remember we get the most accurate report of what is going on in the bands and center from the recon. Sat pics allusionate the fact that she might be repositioning or forming eyes but that isnt to the fact. There will be flare ups around certain areas and if there are 2 close to the other, the middle might look like a eye trying to form where really the real center is nowhere near what we think it looks.
Anyways, with the center yesterday briefly coming under the CDO with the turn to the nw as perdicted, it got under the CDO and pressures droped to near 988mb, but as the sheer continued from the sw the center became again on the sw or wsw quadrent of the system. Generally moving around 320dg with wobbles she is hanging on about as expected as the upper low continues to cause some sheer from the sw. The upper low will weaken as Claudette moves slowly NW and becomes a hurricane later on and into Saturday as posted in last column. Movement as I stated favored A southern Texas landfall with possibilities of a more northward turn if the trough digs allittle more. I stated I cant give a real forcast more then 5 days out and no one will guarente that. THE MOST IMPORTANT DIRECTION THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE WILL HAPPEN NOW THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS as she is influenced by the trough. Its a 50-50 call almost on which path she will take. Basically watch the watervapor, read the recon reports, and you will have a good idea on the POSSIBLE movement of this future hurricane. Also to note,, some models indicate a Danny coming from the same area over the next few days, we have time to see what happens by Monday. scottsvb


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Reformation
      #7398 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:36 PM

She better reform her center or she is dead. The current LLC is very clear on visible sat well west of the convection moving almost due west along the coast of the Yucatan. She just keeps on surprising me.

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guest
Unregistered




Re: Out of the Woods!
      #7399 - Fri Jul 11 2003 01:46 PM

Even Stranger....if you look at a zoomed visible image you can see a Low Level center spinning SW (yeah, SW) along the north coast of the Yucatan. Soooooo...the question is...is there another LLC somewhere under the convection or did it spin out!

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