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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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CocoaBeach
Unregistered




Looks like it's coming together
      #8022 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:39 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

The last few frames you can see some good rotation.
I bet it's a TS tomorrow.


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8023 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:43 PM

Thanks Steve, it worked. Boy that is a nice view. The disturbance has good out flow. Do you see anything that will stand in its way for further development?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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met
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8024 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:43 PM

disturbance s.w. of cv is the best organized system at this stage this year. could be strong depression already. plus africa full of more disturbances waiting to enter atlantic. this one could be a major storm down the road.

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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8025 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:46 PM

No, nothing to inhibit development. Some subsidence, but the wave ahead of it made the ultimate sacrifice. Besides, this is bringing its own water. No shear ahead. Cheers!!

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8026 - Wed Jul 16 2003 08:55 PM

Yeah met I agree.... one of the few times I respectfully disagree with hankfrank on his last post... only negative things I see right now for that might hinder further development is its low latitude (which it can over come), and its really not the CV season quite yet. But this season has been so accelerated that maybe it is time for the CV season to begin this week..

This same system would be in the NW Car or GOM and people would be jumping all over it.... I don't think TD 5 will have much if any affect on it either as its so far away and not all that strong to begin with.... guess will just have to monitor to see what happens... I'd be very surprised if it doesn't make TD status in the next couple of days...


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8027 - Wed Jul 16 2003 09:12 PM

TD#5 looks like Danny now...


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil:80/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2003&MO=Jul&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=05L.DANNY&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Lat

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Wed Jul 16 2003 10:06 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8028 - Wed Jul 16 2003 09:19 PM

If you don't mind, where did you get your Dvorak numbers from?

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8030 - Wed Jul 16 2003 09:22 PM

Go to the NRL site... My links will not work.
IT WORKS NOW ...I FIXED IT!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Wed Jul 16 2003 10:07 PM)


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Lonny307
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8031 - Wed Jul 16 2003 09:31 PM

I must admit, that is a little weird they don't mention the wave on the tropical outlook. That is their job right. Any wave that has potential should be mentioned. Seems the ones they do mention fizzle out. So maybe that is a plus.

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Mike
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8032 - Wed Jul 16 2003 09:42 PM

NRL site is now calling TD#5 Danny. I think NHC will upgrade at 2300.

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8033 - Wed Jul 16 2003 10:13 PM

Quick on the draw Toni I try to check NRL often. One thing I have learned over time is the NRL's alerts. If in question ( take Claudette ) I go w/ NRL for formation. I don't always agree w/ the track & int. If the NRL put's it out most times the NHC will follow.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Will Five affect Six?
      #8034 - Wed Jul 16 2003 10:24 PM

Not sure if it was your link or not but the NRL site will get a little freaky from time to time

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
11 pm update
      #8035 - Wed Jul 16 2003 10:45 PM

We have Danny boy.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
For anyone who missed the 11PM discussion on Danny...
      #8036 - Wed Jul 16 2003 10:49 PM

Here's some good backround reading from the TPC:

"THE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON IS WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. DANNY...THE
FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...IS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FOURTH
TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD. HOWEVER...PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SINCE 1900...ONLY TWO
SEASONS HAVE PRODUCED THEIR FOURTH TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM OF
THE YEAR EARLIER THAN JULY 16TH...1959 AND 1997. THESE TWO SEASONS
PRODUCED ONLY 11 AND 8 TROPICAL STORMS...RESPECTIVELY. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THOUGH THAT 1997 WAS AN EL-NINO YEAR AND IS NOT A GOOD
ANALOG FOR 2003"

FWIW.

Also, for you SE Coasters, Joe B. is mentioning the area east off of FL/GA being ventillated late next week at a time when the NAO is predicted to go negative. A shot at some pattern development?

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: For anyone who missed the 11PM discussion on Danny...
      #8037 - Wed Jul 16 2003 11:00 PM

Danny has formed and to stay over the open waters. A distrubance sw of Cape Verde islands is moving west and looks like there is some type of circulation, LLC or not it looks like its getting better organized. Some shear on northwestern side of 15-25kts but wind shear fairly favorable as it heads west with shear 10kts or less on average.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Depression 5 Spins Up
      #8039 - Wed Jul 16 2003 11:16 PM

TS Danny should have no impact (one way or the other) on what may become TD6 in a day or two - too much distance between two small (and currently rather weak) systems. As some of you have noted, the CV season is already active (Claudette had its origins as a CV wave). Short article in the Storm Forum.
Cheers,
ED


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: For anyone who missed the 11PM discussion on Danny...
      #8040 - Wed Jul 16 2003 11:19 PM

For anyone who was watching Dr. Lyons tonight on TWC, he had some really interesting information about strengthening vs. weakening hurricanes at landfall. A discussion about 'coupling' vs. 'decoupling' winds in the upper circulation as it relates to the lower circulation. He noted that Claudette casued so much damage as a strenghtening hurricane because its upper level and lower level wind fields were in sync, allowing faster than cat. 1 winds to be drawn down to the surface...while a storm like Lili last year did not have the same effect. Neat stuff that he says has not been studied real well.

Also, he noted the disturbance at 10N and 30W and noted it was a 'cause for concern'. Also, Gary Gray noted it at Millenium (sp!) Weather as well, and if you read him often you know he almost never mentions undeveloped systems. I find it odd that NHC is giving it short shrift.

And yes, I know I can't spell Millenium to save my life!


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: For anyone who missed the 11PM discussion on Danny...
      #8041 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:02 AM

It does appear there is a broad area of low pressure sw of Cape Verde islands. TPC 0200Z analysis has an area of low pressure/tropical wave with pressure 1015mb. Slow development looks quite possible over the next day or two. As stated earlier shear out ahead of this system is 10kts or less.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
send erika
      #8042 - Thu Jul 17 2003 12:13 AM

i guess we're on a roll, so why not have another named storm? 30w wave (low?) is fairly perky for something so far south, and it is starting to.. well, persist. as far as prospects for such a system would go, usually when they develop that far east they curve up well before the islands.
worth noting that the lower end of the wave that spawned danny is still discernable and defined.. and now leaving the subsidence desert. worth keeping that spare eye on.
interesting looseyana steve, that joe b has a pattern system in mind for one of these stalled fronts. have to start scouring the models.. was thinking on these lines a week or so ago when the omega block was peaking in the north atlantic, and NAO was good and negative. this possibility interests me, since i'm looking for something in my back yard.
as for danny.. interest from here is how intense it can get in the time it has. good looking system.
dont forget claudette.. still rated an inland t.d. and putting down rain in west texas. might still have some structure when it reaches southern arizona in another day or so.
as far as the early season activity.. note. the two seasons NHC mentions as being this active this early.. '97 and '59.. both had very quiet augusts. maybe MJO related?
other active early seasons.. such as 1995, 1966, 1936, 1933.. '66 was on the lines of '97/'59.. but the active 30s yrs and 1995 (5 systems by july 31) went on to produce 16, 19 and 21 storms.
be interesting to see how far we go. all of the above seasons except 1997 had significant u.s. hurricane activity.
0517z17july


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
soon to be hurricane danny?
      #8043 - Thu Jul 17 2003 06:26 AM

At first it was suppose to be nothing more than a TD....then a minimal TS....now we're looking a minimal hurricane in the next day. At the present rate of error for the intensity forecast it's gonna be forecasted to be a Cat 5 by tonight I'm just glad I pointed out the development in this wave way back during Claudette.

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