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#96L 's remnants now consolidating into a compact well-defined Low over the Bahamas. May head towards Bermuda eventually.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Michael) , Major: 38 (Michael) Florida - Any: 38 (Michael) Major: 38 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida
Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8379 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:04 AM

The remnants of Tropical Depression 6, which fell apart nearing the Caribbean, have made its way up close to offshore of St. Augustine, and it seems to be spinning up again. Rapid Strengthening probably won't occur, and showers primarily will be felt in Georgia and South Carolina, none the less we are watching it. Nothing else is occuring noteworthy at the moment in the tropics, and we may be seeing a brief quiet period.



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


- [john@flhurricane.com]


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8381 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:37 AM

Don't know if it will make Erika, but will be fun to watch. Nice wave coming off Africa too. Our lull may be short lived....we've been teased by a couple. Need something to really track! Cheers!!

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Bill
Unregistered




HF Comments/97/other stuff...from the last thread....
      #8384 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:46 AM

No, it won't bring the SAME result, but, maybe the season will be tempered a bit.

I watched on TV a briefing by Max Mayfield here yesterday, he compared the season with 1933 (busiest ever) and '97 (a really poor one) based on number of storms so far. Ps in 33 three storms hot Fl that yr...in 97, Danny brushed us--I still remember it sitting and spinning and INTENSIFYING over Mobile Bay!

His points: '33 was a strong la Nina yr, '97 was a strong el Nino---this yr, we are neutral (La NIna has faded out) , so , our results should be in between.

I agree.

Further---note an upswing in CenPac, looks like MJO positive phase wil be here soon, another upswing end of next week seesm likely.

RE: Low off St. Aug--whoever it was likened the situation to Jerry (on the last thread), gets a gold star! And was no wishcaster, too!

IHS,



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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
11:30 TWO
      #8385 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:50 AM

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA...AND
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT IS PREPARING TO QUICKLY DISPATCH A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

Quick response!


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: HF Comments/97/other stuff...from the last thread....
      #8386 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:51 AM

Here's a quick link to the Jacksonville Long Range loop. I haven't checked out the windspeeds yet, but it certainly looks like a mini tropical storm. Looks like a nasty rainband is on the West Side for you Jacksonvillonians.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kjax.shtml

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Jerry
      #8387 - Fri Jul 25 2003 11:52 AM

Thanks Bill! That was me. I only get one right a year, so I can quit posting now

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
TD#6 making a comeback?
      #8388 - Fri Jul 25 2003 12:00 PM

Well it certainly looks like it from satellite and radar imagery. This has become well organised very quickly, and has the potential to become Erika today. However, as it is so close to land dont expect anything too explosive to develop. Wind and rain will likely occur over much of the coast from Saint Augusting right up towards Cape Fear, NC, as this one heads north.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: TD#6 making a comeback?
      #8389 - Fri Jul 25 2003 12:20 PM

It's a tough call as to what happens as far as intensification. Radar indications are that a surface low is forming, but I haven't checked the buoy or wind data. Look for the possibility of a stall or crawl once up toward the GA/SC coast. That's climatology up that way for weak systems in weak steering currents. As the trof continues to lift out, I don't see this going anywhere but slowly north if it doesn't accelerate by this evening (which is doubtful). Under that scenario, look out for massive rainfall in GA/SC up to 150 miles inland.

No call on eventual landfall with this one. While it appears that Charleston, SC is a prime spot, sometimes these systems will just hug the coast and ride the Gulf Stream. The waters there are in the mid-80's so certainly Cat-1 in 36 hours is not out of the question if the center works its way down to the surface. There will be ample outflow in the area.

Good call by Bastardi from early last week that this area would be the spot to look for in the B-North Pattern.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: TD#6 making a comeback?
      #8390 - Fri Jul 25 2003 01:07 PM

Just a brief post -
NRL have labelled this system as 07L Noname, not as an INVEST. I can only assume therefore that this is Tropical Depression Seven, and NHC will follow with a full advisory shortly...

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Navy NRL
      #8391 - Fri Jul 25 2003 01:34 PM

Looks like the Navy NRL site links have expired.

Interesting that they are naming this 07No Name, as this is an extension of the remnants of TD #6. I would have thought that they would just pick up 6 again. Guess not.


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8393 - Fri Jul 25 2003 02:00 PM

Since 10 A.M. the buoy readings show a slight drop in pressure and an increase in windspeed of around 8 or 9 knots....Things seem to be brewing along as everyone has
forcasted.
Cyclone_head...

P.S. I saw that "wishcast" reference Bill....Will I ever live that one down??


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8394 - Fri Jul 25 2003 02:04 PM

We have TD 7.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8395 - Fri Jul 25 2003 02:30 PM

Here is Savannah's bouy...to look at the readings there
it would seem "a nice day in paradise"

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=41008


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8396 - Fri Jul 25 2003 02:42 PM

good, good. i live inland right along the forecast path in western south carolina, and this morning got assigned to do weekend overtime.. maybe this will give me a surprise rainout. doesn't have to be erika, just don't make me have to get up at 6:30 on saturday.
may or may not get to t.s. strength. waters aren't particularly warm (as noted by several people dealing with upwelling) along the immediate coast.. at support level if anything but not much above. all it needs to do is make it rain all day tomorrow.. that i could appreciate. not often that i get the effects of a tropical system here, should be interesting.
HF 1843z25july


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8397 - Fri Jul 25 2003 03:50 PM

Have a nice week everybody...will be in Key West all next
week...I certainly hope no need for mentioning those Lat/Lon
coordinates for at least a week.

Cyclone_head



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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8398 - Fri Jul 25 2003 04:55 PM

Yawn.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8399 - Fri Jul 25 2003 05:41 PM

well.. either it's going to make a quick little sprint in strength right before landfall overnight as the nearby sea breeze stops drawing from it's inflow.. or it's going to come ashore near camden/liberty counties in ga as a 25kt depression. seabreeze trough has drifted well inland and is now about to pour here. better go tend to the critters.
HF 2144z25july


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Forming off St. Augustine
      #8400 - Fri Jul 25 2003 06:20 PM

Even on the West Central Coast of Florida we seen our share of rain today. Around 2:30 we had hortizonal rain and 1/4 inch hail. The warning said that some areas could experience 60 mph winds. I had some wind here with the heaviest rain but that's about it. On and off thunder all day. Looks like we have a Florida sandwich in the making, would you like that with or without a spin?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Alex
Unregistered




the future(I'll try not to wishcast)
      #8401 - Fri Jul 25 2003 07:26 PM

TD7 looks as if it will remain a weak depression and go into South Carolina tonight, giving them a decent amount of rain.

As for the rest of the Atlantic-The basin is fairly quiet right now, with no systems that threaten development in the immediate future(24-48 hours) Looking farther down the road, there is a decent wave coming off Africa with what seems to be a spin to it, but its not worth being concerned about until it is well over water


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: the future(I'll try not to wishcast)
      #8402 - Fri Jul 25 2003 09:29 PM

All does look tame tonight. As for # 7, well it depends on if you think it is really # 6? If you think it is still # 6 then my orginal landfall of N Tx / La is dealing with some major crow... but if it is # 7 I am doing well because I have not said anything except noting the interesting spin on the Miami radar last evening

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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