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#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 315 (Nate) , Major: 333 (Maria) Florida - Any: 343 (Irma) Major: 343 (Irma)
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Good looking wave west of africa
      #8425 - Sat Jul 26 2003 09:29 PM

There is a 1012 mb low at 17n just west of the cape verde islands.But it is void of convection as it consists of stratuscumulus clouds.That 17n position is almost the same as the low that eventually formed into Danny at that instance it came out at 15n.But I see at the low latituds plenty of convection south of the CV islands so let's see what happens with this wave.By the way are the models showing this wave at their latest runs because I saw NOGAPS not showing this feature at 12Z after having it in previous runs.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Good looking wave west of africa
      #8426 - Sat Jul 26 2003 10:09 PM

I see the formation steve h. is speaking of on the 12Z AVN, CMC and UKMET. I don't see anything around 17N, even on the 18Z that is out... but you know that does not mean it will not happen. Maybe I am looking at bad data?? Maybe I am just tired

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: Good looking wave west of africa
      #8427 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:04 AM

ULL in the Bahamas looks intresting. Streamline analysis has this plotted above 800mb making it an mid/upper level circulation. One thing comes to mind, TD#7. TD#7 formed from mid level circulation. Area needs to be watched, but given models really not biting on anything at the surface my odds are low, but will be watched.

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Good looking wave west of africa
      #8428 - Sun Jul 27 2003 07:13 AM

The Sat. loop this early AM sure looks bursting with color. The ULL near the Bahamas had a nice burst of convection over night. Need to keep an eye on that area, convection has persisted there too long. Will be interesting to see what it does today. Looks like a few more potientals to the East.
What do you all think about the SAL that is in the area? Will it have a big affect on development near the CV this season? How long is this suppose to last?

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TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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bobbi
Unregistered




send a loop or image of dust in atmosphere, please not at work
      #8429 - Sun Jul 27 2003 07:34 AM

and believe there is an awfully lot of it and imagine would inhibit almost any wave but thats debateable theory wise i know

watching ULL... and wave


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: send a loop or image of dust in atmosphere, please not at work
      #8430 - Sun Jul 27 2003 10:26 AM

I'll be surprised if tropical model numbers don't come out today

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Kevin--unplugged
Unregistered




Re: SAL image
      #8431 - Sun Jul 27 2003 10:44 AM

Current image of SAL:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/wavetrkAsal.jpg

Starting to ease up a little in the Western Atlantic. There is still a quite a bit in the Eastern Atlantic...so we'll see what happens with that. Notice the ITCZ has become more active, probably because the SAL is weakening some.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: SAL image
      #8432 - Sun Jul 27 2003 11:12 AM

Appears the Hunters are going in Monday(possibly) Cool sat shot by the way!

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jul 27 2003 11:14 AM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Signs of organization
      #8433 - Sun Jul 27 2003 11:24 AM

Cloudiness and showers centered a couple hundred miles east of the central Bahamas are associated with an upper-level area of low pressure and a surface trough. Although showers have decreased somewhat over the past few hours...this system shows signs of organization and there is some potential for slow development over the next day or so. It is expected to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and an Air Force reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area on Monday...if necessary.


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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
ULL/future system
      #8434 - Sun Jul 27 2003 11:39 AM

okay now, that looks like something today. ETA was on the ball yesterday, forecasting a surface disturbance with the upper system. all it really needs to do is keep the deep convection going and nature will do the rest. i suppose this will be 99L when one of the satelite agencies starts tracking it. unlike that depression, anything that forms with this system will have plenty of water between it and the coastline. interesting week ahead.
east atlantic: up at 17N SSTs are too low to support anything. i'd look lower on the wave axis for trouble, where there is convection to feed it.
that danny low is just a weak swirl and a thunderstorm.. but one week later it's still trackable.
HF 1543z27july


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: ULL/future system
      #8435 - Sun Jul 27 2003 12:08 PM

99L Invest, NRL. Still waiting for some models!

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: ULL/future system
      #8436 - Sun Jul 27 2003 12:28 PM

I agree HankFrank. There even appears to be some outflow to the SW of the system now. That would mean the ULL is backing away (W or SW) which usually means a ridge will be building over top of the system. Guess it'll be another 24-36 hours until some of the feedback mechanisms can begin to work their magic. I'm thinking this energy is more likely to develop than not. As for TD #6/#7, I blew the 4th Quarter. Even though I look at OTIS (sst anomalies) every day, I missed how cold the close in water was. My solution was that the center would be more likely to pull back 20-40 miles to the Gulf Stream and head a little further north (to the SC Coast) than it did (GA coast). Because of those cold waters, the surface support was not there despite the overall better organization near landfall. Obviously this has major implications for the East Coast in what promises to continue to be an active US landfalling season. Should the water near the east coast stay as cool as it is, storms will not be strengthening at landfall. I'm 100% against things like dyno-gel, but if any Cat-3/4/5 EC threat can be blunted at landfall because of naturally occurring colder waters, then potential wind damage could be minimized. I suppose it's the proverbial double-edge sword though when considering that most people die in flooding. FWIW, the Gulf of Mexico is overall relatively warmer than it has been since Bill & Claudette. Today, it looks like the GOM is about a -.75 degree departure from average (essentially a return to neutral SST conditions). I know everyone's got this link bookmarked, but just in case you haven't checked it in a while, here it is:
SSTA's
--------------------------------------------------------
JB had some interesting comments on the Bahamian system today. He said he'd have an update later. He noted the increase in size and organization overall. He thinks the push for a LLC should be underway assuming the convection continues. He said one of the keys is a tropical wave that may be entrained (ala Bill) tonight and tomorrow, and 'after an initial distortion of the front running system', the added heat can work itself into the system. He further suggests that the height falls in the MA may not be great enough to carry the system up and out mid-week. He anticipates the B-North pattern next weekend with the trof around 90W. That implies another threat for the SE or EC down the road if it goes.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: ULL/future system
      #8437 - Sun Jul 27 2003 12:30 PM

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
This is a good picture of the close up of the disturbed weather off of the Bahamas. It looks like it is banding and getting an inflow and rudiments of outflow unless I am seeing doggies in the clouds again.

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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: ULL/future system
      #8438 - Sun Jul 27 2003 12:59 PM

Hey Mary K.,

Watching aminated zoom, is that a center that pops up on the last frame or just a hole in the convection? It would be at 25.79N 72.32W on the 16:15UT. It if were the 'true' center, it's moving WNW. Too early.

There are couple of other swirls in there too I think.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: ULL/future system
      #8439 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:04 PM

I saw that too. I just figured it was angle that it was shot at but we can keep looking at the updates and I guess time will tell. This could form pretty fast, but run out of real estate before it becomes a category.

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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: ULL/future system
      #8440 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:35 PM

Looking at the next couple of shots, it was definitely a spin. It looks like the overall center is broader, but that little spin still shows up within the broader circulation. If the broader circulation is the center, it would appear to be moving between W and WNW (the embedded circulation is more WNW). Overall, I'd say the system is continuing to look better organized despite the generally high pressure in the area (which could even become a positive factor in development).

Developing situation?

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
sst temps
      #8441 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:38 PM

the water temp at the cape canaveral 20 mile bouy (41009) is at 81.o not realy that cold. True the water is colder right along the coast due to the upwelling caused by the slight ofshores winds in the overnight and early an hours the water temps at the beaches are on their way up. I think someone said the water felt like 50 something but I think that may be strecthing it ( no offense), I am in the water everday surfing, i think it felt more like lower- mid 70's, but then again this is coming from a guy who hates to wear his wetsuit even in the coldest of January days

so even if the water is still cooler at the beaches the water just 20 miles out is still avg warmth to sustain storm strength (of course the water temps at the 120 mile bouy 41010 are at 85 degress which is a bit warmer) but like steve discussed, the super warm temps that help storms pop right before landfall isnt there as of right now


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MaryK.
Unregistered




Re: ULL/future system
      #8442 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:40 PM

I just took another look and did the loops. That is definitely a circulation center even if it is not the primary one. You know that is the Bermuda Triangle area where planes go down and all sorts of strange things occur. So it could be a rapidly forming storm that the models can not keep up with. As for high pressures, we have seen storms around Florida before with the pressures apparently too high but the storms happened anyway. So it is I guess a relativity problem that Einstein would have to address. It is definitely interesting.

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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: ULL/future system
      #8443 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:48 PM

comparing the the lops to 24 hours ago, the convection has grown and held together. Not sure if this is a sign of the low reaching the surface or not ( is it anyone?... Bueller, Bueller?)

kind of reminds me or Erin, similar place and time of year, (not exact but close) but Erin was a wave not an ULL...



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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: ULL/future system
      #8444 - Sun Jul 27 2003 01:59 PM

I remember Erin, she was an averag Tropical Storm when she got here near mouse ears land. She did not do any storm or rain damage but was good for a day off from work.!

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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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