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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
The Basin - West to East
      #8529 - Tue Jul 29 2003 10:54 PM

At first glance everything appears quiet, but that may change in a few days. This season started so early that the end of July seems like the halfway point rather than the normal beginning of the season. I glanced back at other seasons which had an early start and compared the season totals against the Spring ENSO conditions for each of the five recent active early seasons. To be honest, I can't find much of a correlation, but here are the results:

1959 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 11 for the season - Neutral SSTs
1966 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 11 for the season - weak El Nino
1989 - 4 named storms through the end of July - total of 11 for the season - weak La Nina
1995 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 19 for the season - Neutral SSTs
1997 - 5 named storms through the end of July - total of 8 for the season - moderate El Nino

So far we've had 4 named storms and the Spring ENSO conditions were Neutral.

The Basin:
East coast trough - Invest 99L - noticed an area of cyclonic turning today near 24N 76W in the central Bahamas. Still fires convection from time-to-time. Not moving much at all and continues to have some potential for future development.

Central Atlantic tropical wave - may have a weak circulation center near 8N 48W, but system has no real organization.

Tropical low south of the Cape Verde's near 10N 24W - Invest 90L - system has a good convective envelope to the south. If the circulation can hold together, this system has development potential in three or four days.

Not quite in the Basin yet is a strong wave over northwest Africa near 15N 5W - seems to have a low level circulation and with its more northern latitude this may be the future Invest 91L by early next week.

Lots of areas to keep an eye on in the days ahead.
ED

Additional comments from Ed Dunham are in the Storm Forum and can be found here .

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.



Edited by CFHC (Tue Jul 29 2003 11:45 PM)


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Happy Birthday HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
humility
      #8530 - Tue Jul 29 2003 11:36 PM

it's hard to be credible when you switch your position from one day to the next. have to though, much of what i predicted last night has failed to materialize.. weather can be humbling, i'm tellin' ya. basically shifting all my development impetus southeast. the danny low is unreadable tonight.. yesterday i said i'd bet on it developing, tonight i won't even bet that it exists. 99L is equally unreadable and lacks any constancy. i'm more impressed with the mesoscale thunderstorm complexes over the southeast tonight.
the cape verde development region now has center stage. a few days ago the ITCZ re-energized, now waves tracking along it appear more prominent and 'amped'. the westernmost one is at low latitude and not of interest unless it climbs before reaching south america. a weak turning with spotty convection is apparent near 12n 38w, but not doing much. then there is newly christened 90L, the 20th invest of the year. feet wet but holding together quite well.. the low latitude is less of a detractor that far east. trouble if it keeps it's definition inside the monsoon trough.
two days remain in july.. probably no E storm this month but on the other hand i doubt we'll see a season similar to many recent la nina ones where around august 20th the basin came violently alive... expect more of the slow and steady climb in tempo. if i had to pick a match from ed's analogs it would be 1989... low confidence.
HF 0338z30july


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: humility
      #8531 - Wed Jul 30 2003 01:43 AM

Excellent posts guys. I'm off for the NE (gonna spare the details for now ) for a while, but I'll check in end of next week. I won't have a whole lot of cpu access, but I'll try to stay up with what's going on. Here's what I'm watching:

1. SE US - hard to tell for another day or two. Back on Sunday or Monday, I said that I was watching for Wed. to see what happened. It could be a dud, but I expect at least something to come out of that area. There is ample energy available and if the upper pattern improves, the table is set. Will it or won't it? My hunch is at least TS conditions at some point on the NC Coast by the weekend. We'll see. Everyone's downplaying the area, but don't be surprised.

2. New wave on the scene has nice SW outflow jet. Some of the models are jumping on it later in their forecast periods. MRF currently has it taking aim and then missing the NC Coast. It has a well known eastern-trof bias, so the SE and northern Islands will have to tune in. Of note is the lack of + SSTA's the system will have to cross - indicates a bias weak.

3. Wave rolling across Africa. Spinning, raining, good looking colors.

4. Wave in Indian Ocean - I'm making the call now that this becomes the strongest system so far. There are a couple pieces of energy, but they'll come together down the line. We're talking > 20 days from the US. I've been watching it for 3 days.

5. SSTA's, SOI

6. The NAO. It has predicted the genesis of the last few storms. When it starts going negative, a storm forms, when it comes back toward neutral (still negative), a storm forms. This season, the NAO has appears to offer a very reliable indication of development. I wouldn't bet money against it.

Adios amigos.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Still early to say if it misses the islands or not.
      #8532 - Wed Jul 30 2003 07:49 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

This is the San Juan NWS discussion and the bottomline from them is that it is too early to say for sure if this system will miss the lesser antilles or not and all is speculation at this time.Here in Puerto Rico I am watching the low track of it and I am worried that it may miss the trough that may pull it north and away from the caribbean.Time will tell what track eventually it will take but this system will be the kickoff for the CV season and it has the look of a traditional long tracker.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Wed Jul 30 2003 09:14 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
bon voyage Steve.. find an internet cafe somewhere please
      #8533 - Wed Jul 30 2003 10:13 AM

Like your mention of the Indian Ocean cause I noticed that and think it relates to Africa and our waves.. nice to see moisture out there and its a lot of moisture.

Wave on invest looks good.. has a long way to go and a short time to get there so right now we'll keep on watching this invest run..

But really... nice banding, hard to argue those bands.

As for the changing around of locations of waves.. I think at this point we can see it all on the sats so where they spot it priot to actual naming is not really all that important. Affects the model runs obviously but from our birds eye view.. we can just keep watching ... the plots aren't as important to me as the way it looks.. and whats really happening.

If it develops into Erika.. trust me we will know from the CDO where the center is

Take care Steve and have fun..enjoy the cool weather compared to our deep south

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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garyb
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
From NWHHC 10:00am
      #8534 - Wed Jul 30 2003 10:26 AM

10 A.M. EDT 7/30/2003 Atlantic Ocean Tropical Outlook

Convection has ioncreased with the surface trough to the east of the Bahamas. However, this remains diorganized and upper winds do not favor tropical cyclone formation. Therefore, further development is expected to be slow to occur, if it were to occur at all.

There has been little change overnight in association with the tropical low to the south of the Cape Verde Islands. Atmospheric conditions do not favor tropical cyclone formationhere either; however, with the system being well organized, there is a chance that a depression could form during the next 12 to 24 hours as it moves to the west.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Forecaster: Ortt
Let's see what NHC says at 11:30am


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Jamie
Unregistered




From the 8:05AM EDT TWD
      #8535 - Wed Jul 30 2003 10:53 AM

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N24W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS BANDING ON THE WESTERN EDGE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N22W 10N27W TO 8N27W.


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Jamie
Unregistered




TWO 11:30AM EDT
      #8536 - Wed Jul 30 2003 11:14 AM

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

An area of cloudiness and showers is located just to the east of the Bahamas. There is no evidence of a surface circulation and surface pressures are not falling. Development...if any...should be slow to occur.

A tropical wave is located over the far eastern Atlantic...about 500 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands...and is moving westward near 20 mph. Satellite images indicate that this system has become better organized...and conditions appear to be favorable
for a tropical depression to form over the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Possible TC
      #8537 - Wed Jul 30 2003 12:57 PM

Hey guys,
just a brief post...

The 12Z surface analysis on the NHC site now labels this system SSW of the CV Islands as 'Possible Tropical Cyclone' and deepens the central pressure from 1012 to 1011 mb. It has good satellite signature too, and if it can hold its own it might be a player on down the road.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Possible TC
      #8538 - Wed Jul 30 2003 01:06 PM

Is there a large trough in the central ATL. All of the models are showing a shrp north turn down the line???

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Possible TC
      #8539 - Wed Jul 30 2003 01:31 PM

Eh, I wouldn't buy into the models too much now. Wanna see how wacked the guidence is? The AVN takes this thing to the northeast and then back to the northwest. In addition, the wave is moving at 20 mph (per NHC TWO). I'm not buying into any recurvature right now, much less the sharp and quick recurvature solutions that the models are showing now. Wait till (if) we get TD 8 to see better model runs. All interests in the islands need to monitor this system...it's that simple.

The area east of the Bahamas has some decent convective activity today. Pressures in the area are 1019-1021 millibars, however.

Check out my new avatar...hehehe.


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: Possible TC
      #8540 - Wed Jul 30 2003 01:39 PM

I really haven't seen a tropical cycloneturn that sharply north that early on their journey across the Atlantic. Right now, I really am not going to turst there "predictions" because so far they have been wrong on almost everything. When the were sure that a day would have no chance of having something develope, two hours later we had tropical depression 7. THe only way we will know where it goes is when it actually goes and does that turn. And personally, i don't think it will I think is will go a little south of the greater Antilles, or a little north of them.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: Possible TC
      #8541 - Wed Jul 30 2003 01:46 PM

I really think it is a TD right now, it has some nice banding features and she looks very healthy, and we are in the Cape Verde season now. What is this sharp turn north crap? They don't know what there doing. We will seen in like 3-4 days.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
what would pull the cv wave that far north?? perhaps
      #8542 - Wed Jul 30 2003 01:54 PM

if they were taking into consideration something forming up near the bahamas and not just the good ole trof that would pull it up that way..

thoughts?

could the models be reading a system that hasn't developed as yet that would be affecting the wave that isnt developed yet either

well?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
they turn north early often...
      #8543 - Wed Jul 30 2003 02:02 PM

usually the faster they develop the faster they turn north and have seen them do strange things..

still..
don't think this is a TD yet and think we will see what happens over the next 24..

any ship readings?
maybe someone with strong instruments on the beach on the CV islands??

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: what would pull the cv wave that far north?? perhaps
      #8544 - Wed Jul 30 2003 02:02 PM

It well be weakness of the ridge but it is far to the south and moving at a good clip so until I see it around 11-12n then it may begin to recurve and also if it is a weak system TD or weak TS it will move with the east flow not like a hurricane that will move with the upper flow so time will tell if the islands will be missed by the system or it will threat them.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: what would pull the cv wave that far north?? perhaps
      #8545 - Wed Jul 30 2003 02:26 PM

Hmmm....think the Bahamamian system is too far away to affect 90L at this point in time.

Don't see any other systems developing in the vincinity that would affect 90L's track...except for a trough to the north.

Another thing I don't here people talking about enough...the possibility that 90L hooks on a trough, but doesn't get carried out completely. Depending on just how much it strengthens, we could be looking at a battle between the low level steering currents and an upper-level trough. There is a possibility this system could detach from the trough.

Not trying to make comparisons, but Floyd back in 1999 was almost a gonner until the trough to the north (around 60 W) missed it. At the time, Floyd was a category 1 hurricane. Makes you wonder if the models could be overdoing the weakness...

I think this system's fate lies within the amount of development we see.


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: what would pull the cv wave that far north?? perhaps
      #8546 - Wed Jul 30 2003 02:58 PM

I found a ship near 9.8n and 26.4w. Winds where NE at less then 5 knots, pressure 1012.8mb and slowly falling.

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Alex
Unregistered




Cape verde low
      #8547 - Wed Jul 30 2003 03:47 PM

I would say(just my take) that this entity has a pretty good chance of becoming classified in the next 24 hours. It has a decently defined circulation, hearty convection, and a good environment. I would also be concerned about it due to its low latitude.

In the Bahamas, it seems that there is a circulation there, but I am possibly just seeing a ULL or a mid level circ.


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Alex
Unregistered




interesting(somewhat trivial) fact
      #8548 - Wed Jul 30 2003 04:01 PM

It seems that a Cape Verde wave forming farther south is no indication that it will impact land. Of 13 storms and hurricanes that have formed East of the Caribbean and south of 12 degrees (95-02)only 3 have impacted the U.S That is about 23% I will post soon about the total ratio

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Introducing.....
      #8549 - Wed Jul 30 2003 04:10 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=atlantic/tropics&PROD=vapor&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20030701.1845.goes12.vapor.x.trop.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

making its way west

anyone know how fast this mass of clouds is moving?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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alex
Unregistered




data
      #8550 - Wed Jul 30 2003 04:17 PM

of all Cape verde Systems, approx 7 of 46 affected the U.S. This is about 15%

On ones south of 12 degrees I was incorrect, it was in fact 3 of 16 or about 18%

If anyone has better data, please correct me


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alex
Unregistered




low in atlantic
      #8551 - Wed Jul 30 2003 04:50 PM

they didnt upgrade at 5 did they?


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met
Unregistered




Re: low in atlantic
      #8552 - Wed Jul 30 2003 06:04 PM

there are some monsters waiting in africa!

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Happy Birthday HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: low in atlantic
      #8553 - Wed Jul 30 2003 06:38 PM

d numbers only 1.0 on 90L. it's also at very low latitude.. which will probably stunt its development. broad in scale, so i'd expect this system to develop very slowly. if this turns out the result would be a cape verde system at fairly low latitude well to the west.
disturbance at 42w unchanged in appearance. follow on wave to 90L looking good over land.. goes feet wet by sunup tomorrow. 99L still not showing any organization, just a hotbed for disturbed weather that might spin up if there were real persistance. nothing more to say of the danny low. cape verde season might kick off here; not expecting much from the subtropics at the moment.
HF 2241z30july


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Cape verde low
      #8554 - Wed Jul 30 2003 06:39 PM

I think TD 8 will be named at 11pm. As far as the Bahamas... all day long, it would look pretty... then bad again, back and forth. I still won't write it off yet.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
Kevin's New Avatar !
      #8555 - Wed Jul 30 2003 07:41 PM

Hey Kev , Great Avatar Bro .......GO BUCS !!!...... POUND THAT ROCK !!

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
One More Day
      #8556 - Wed Jul 30 2003 09:31 PM

There is only 1 more day until August 1st. The start of the Cape Verde season and Football season. The real excitement is about to begin. We will probably have a storm just in time.


--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Tropics Guy
Unregistered




Re: TD #8 ?
      #8557 - Wed Jul 30 2003 10:37 PM

Sure looks like the mid-atlantic tropical low is fast becoming TD# 8., circulation is becoming well defined in the past few hours!

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD #8 ?
      #8558 - Wed Jul 30 2003 11:24 PM

System suffering from some easterly shear, but since it is trucking along--like every other system this year--it may actually catch up with the convection to the west. I noted on another site that the NOGAPS is picking up this system and the one coming off the African coast, but seems to favor the latter wave for development. Its going to be an interesting next few days to be sure!

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: TD #8 ?
      #8559 - Thu Jul 31 2003 06:00 AM

I just knew for sure we would have # 8 by now but it got sloppy. It does look as if the models are backing off that sharp north hook for now so this could be a problem down the road.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: TD #8 ?
      #8560 - Thu Jul 31 2003 06:32 AM

There is a very good chance we will have #8 latter today. Looks good this AM.
It's hard at times to see the pics at work. What is a good site that I can go to at the end of the day that will let me review the sat pics for the day? Been busy, so I am counting on everyone here as always to help keep me informed on the latest. Everyone have a great day!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: TD #8 ?
      #8561 - Thu Jul 31 2003 06:43 AM

T numbers are now up to 1.5/1.5, and satellite imagery continues to show a well developed if slightly sheered system. Expect it to be upgraded to Tropical Depression 8 at some point today.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: TD #8 ?
      #8562 - Thu Jul 31 2003 08:02 AM

I see were NOGAPS picks the two systems up and we might have a little duo out here Erika and Fabian.I have not any actual images of the one coming off of Africa yet,but the first system looks quite impressive this morning on IF shot.I would say this should become TD8 if all holds today.It remains to be seen who gets the name first.The NOGAPS I read might actually like the second system for a possible quicker development.The pull to the N appears to be not as severe now.This looks to be an interesting week ahead and it is stiill early.

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: TD #8 ?
      #8563 - Thu Jul 31 2003 09:42 AM

The more dominate of the two might depend on whether they develop a LLC above 10 degrees North, clear of the Tropcial Convergence Zone. The other question is whether they are far enough apart not to impede each others development. It will be interesting to watch.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: TD #8
      #8564 - Thu Jul 31 2003 11:08 AM

No question anymore. This sytem has definitely formed. It has as good of a circulation as I have seen this far out in quite a while. Appears to be moving WNW currently. Could just be a fish spinner, but I'm not ready to go with that just yet.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Good Water Vapor Loop
      #8565 - Thu Jul 31 2003 11:16 AM

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Shows our potential TD moving off to the west, or perhaps just north of west.... jury still out if it will be a fish spinner... faster it develops, the more likely it will be....

also shows a very interesting system in the extreme west Car going inland in Nicaragua... probably will go off to the EPAC.



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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Joe B
      #8566 - Thu Jul 31 2003 11:40 AM

Who has access to Joe B's article. Can someone please tell me what he has to say.

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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: TD #8 ?
      #8567 - Thu Jul 31 2003 12:32 PM

That was the thinking that the one coming off Africa last above the 10 degree point might get the name first.The system out front sure does look good .Soma photo's putting some of the windfield at 30-35 knots on the W and SW quadarants.I think this one gets name first Erika.The point about one affecting the other you really not be able to tell for maybe another 48 hrs.

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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: TD #8 ?
      #8568 - Thu Jul 31 2003 12:44 PM

If this thing does develope which it looks like it definently will, there is absolutly nothin stopping it from intensifiying. I think this will be our first major hurricane. The conditions in the Carribbean are good and the Gulf is a go for a major event.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Joe B
      #8569 - Thu Jul 31 2003 01:14 PM

He spoke a lot about Darth Vader and Luke and Lois and something about a springsteen song. Was confusing, going to reread it during lunch.

Personally miss his football comments, easier for me to understand what he is talking about.

If you think I was on a rant the other day, he made me look easy to understand.

Wave is entertaining..will say that much. Unsure where the center is exactly.. will see where they mark it and I'm sure they will mark it soon

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Dolphinshahahaha
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Re: TD #8 ?
      #8570 - Thu Jul 31 2003 01:18 PM

Someone wanted Joe B. I don't put out his stuff because it's available for pay. But in the interest that you can see what you're missing everyday by not shelling out that $19.95/month during tropical season, here's his excerpt on the Tropics from today. I'm not posting his whole article, but the NAO is going negative in the next few days. Like I said, that's been the biggest predictor of the year (and only demonstrated in the media by Joe:

Here's his take on the Tropics ONLY for today:

TROPICS: It's August tomorrow and the negative turn of the NAO means we should see one, probably two and perhaps three named storms in the next 10 days. The East Coast is open for business the next four, then everyone is fair game after that. We have five disturbances this morning. The first is the trough that has been sitting around the Bahamas the past five days, the one that sends torrents of email my way everytime it flares up. Remember pulsing does no good, it has to be sustained increase. But it's sitting there, and it is showing where the place to watch for development is.

Coming quick on its heels is the tropical wave now getting entrained into the upper low south of Bermuda that is backing southwest. The wave has developed plenty of convection and is negatively tilted, leans northwest. The late, great Norm MacDonald used to point out that such systems are conserving energy and directing it in a way that forces its buildup. A surge so strong east to low-level winds are coming into it as well as the original southeast surge that marked the V notch. The upper low is backing southwestward, and this wave should be near 30 and 75 Saturday morning, right under the most favored spot for development given the trough position over the Plains.

Now it's no secret that since last week I have been shooting my mouth off about this pattern, and I guess if nothing comes out of this, then people would consider the hype, tripe. But with the overall pattern, the NAO going negative, the negative tilt to the system and the upper feature backing, this looks like one of these things where within 24 hours an upper anticyclone can pop over and area of low-level convergence that is a combination of the wave and the upper low. The upper low then backs southwest, and we are left with the kind of development that Danny was. Remember, that wave was also negatively tilted, got entrained into the upper low, but with the upper low backing away, all it did, because the air is moist in the deep means rather than dry, is set off the process for development. Once again, it takes more than a blow up, it has to be sustained and better organized. However the popcorn look to some of the convection indicates large scale upward motion is occurring as the low backs off. If this does develop, it shows the value of pattern recognition, but also paying attention to previous system, even if they are in the middle of nowhere as far as development goes. The "perfect storm" that got all the hype was part of something I call the "Obi Wan" theory, where an upper low destroys, then entrains energy from an existing tropical system. The upper low then backs off leaving the warmer system to overwhelm everything as pressures fall and warm the column at the center. The reason it's called the Obi Wan effect, is that in Star Wars, one can remember Obi giving up to Darth Vader (the evil cold low) then his energy was transferred to Luke, who came back and, depending on your interpretation, destroyed Darth. In any case, the year before the same thing had happened in the Atlantic with little fanfare because the storm was so far out at see, but Josephine was destroyed by a cold low, which then became Lois.

The south Atlantic is active with a small rotation center at 10N and 46 west, the tropical system the hurricane center is now making noise about and the one that has also been hype here for several days near 9 north and 34 west and yet another coming off the African coast. The GFS looks like its nuts with the middle system as it turns it northwestward and slows it down, and it has shown no signs of that. Looks to me like something that could be trouble in the islands in four days.

The UKMET is 0 for 5 this year on storms. It failed to predict the first four developments, then did so with a fifth, TD 6, which of course fell apart but did come back. It was very good though on the path of that (if one used the 400 mb level). In any case, I can't find it here, or let's put it this way, it already looks like it is happily treking west well south of the UKMET and GFS idea... for tomorrow morning! It is making a huge deal of the system coming off Panama now for a possible dangerous storm for the Mexican coast, so I will be watching that. But I am keeping score with it, as I still remember all the hype coming out of England on its superior hurricane forecasting skill after the '95 season. With its performance the past few years, it reminds me of the Springsteen classic "Point Blank" whose key theme was that "no one survives, untouched." When it comes to model boasts about accuracy, the song rings true.


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islander
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Re: TD #8 ?
      #8571 - Thu Jul 31 2003 01:36 PM

From NRL:

WTNT21 KNGU 311500Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK, VA/311500Z JUL 03//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 311500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N9 34.0W7 TO 9.0N9 50.0W5
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 3
11200Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N9
34.0W7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS.
2. A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ABOUT 900NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, BUT REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 011500Z7.//
BT
#0001
NNNN


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LoisCane
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Thank you HAHA
      #8572 - Thu Jul 31 2003 02:26 PM



try fitting that one on the Goodyear Blimp.. maybe more people can read it

meanwhile..looking at the zoom on the loops...tend to think its around 9 at the highest.. is an area around 10 but think the lower area..more the west is where things are twisting around

as for Bastardi..well Twist Again.. Like we did last summer

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Bill
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NE of PR
      #8574 - Thu Jul 31 2003 03:53 PM

Looks to me like a strong midlevel or surface circulation developing on the S end of the trough/wave....funny NHC can't see it?

IHS,

Bill


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Bill
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Re: NE of PR
      #8575 - Thu Jul 31 2003 04:51 PM

I don't think the system e of the islands will develop---at least not in next 24 hrs.....NE of PR is fizzing...

IHS,

Bill


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Rich B
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90L
      #8576 - Thu Jul 31 2003 05:16 PM

Hey guys,
TNumbers remain 1.5/1.5 with the system east of the islands. Microwave data also suggests winds of around 25 knots, and rain rates in excess of 25mm/hr. There is good banding especially to the west and south of the broad circulation. The upper level outflow is also excellent with anticyclonic conditions aloft. However, well everything looks so favourable just remember TD#6... NHC stated with that system that 4 out of the 5 criteria for rapid intensification were filled... yet it fell apart and died! I guess it shows... these things will do exactly what THEY want to do, and when they want to do it. Regardless, i still think this will be a TD soon, with possible problems for the northern Islands a couple of days down the line.

Regards

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bobbi aka lois
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i think... there are two centers within the wave...
      #8577 - Thu Jul 31 2003 05:32 PM

Not sure you would say two "official" centers but you can see a definite twist in the SW of the wave where the actual weather is occuring...color in infared..etc.. To the NE of that you can see on some loops that the wave seems to twist along at that point as well.

My thoughts going into the evening.
Not even talking about the feature in the Atlantic east of the Bahamas.. until it has some staying power and persists for more than 24 hours as per John Hope's often mentioned rule.



With a system this large and still undefined I think that it is normal to sometimes have more than one center..especially if there is active strong weather in one area it can appear something is developing in that area when another area is deemed the main center.

Hard to say..saw one loop where I would have sworn it was north of 10 and the floater really shows a twist lower.

As for WV vs VIS.. I never use one to determine anything... I prefer the WV because you can tell a lot from it. But when I said earlier I saw two it was based on the VIS floater.


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Young Droop
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Re: i think... there are two centers within the wave...
      #8578 - Thu Jul 31 2003 06:34 PM

Even if this system develops, look at all the shear in the Caribbean. It just looks very hostile and u never know with all the pesky upper low's around.

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Happy Birthday HanKFranK
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going active anytime..
      #8579 - Thu Jul 31 2003 06:49 PM

or at least that SHOULD happen. doubt the strong wave (90L or 20th invest) halfway to the islands will remain unclassified for much longer. ahead near 46w a low level swirl associated with the leading wave is slowing down and drifting south, and i'm thinking it will provide the low level convergence needed to force a clear center to develop with the broad circulation. most everybody expects a system out of this wave and i don't see much reason for them to be wrong. of course development speed and the all-too-familiar habit of fledgling systems to rocket westward to the caribbean this year will factor into where this system moves.
new wave off africa has shown less tolerance to the water and isn't very organized.
off the east coast the trough (still called 99L, 19th invest) lingers, with a new upper low retrograding behind it to re-establish the TUTT.. that upper low is supporting plenty of convection with an associated wave. here comes another kick of convergence to get something started down there.. as noted in the posted bastardi clip it's in a synoptically good place. over the SE the upper high is drifting closer and may provide some ridging to the north. the next trough is digging in further west and the one that is established to the north (and ready to turn anything into a fish spinner) is pulling out.. so if something chooses to form in the region now it will probably be more of a threat. don't see the a clear culprit yet, though.. this system won't form until some mechanism gets more than transient convection going.
some globals are breaking a low out of the westerlies over the north atlantic by early next week. not everybody cares about such potential fish spinners, but am noting the possibility to those of ya who do. rich byett over in england probably does.
july just about finished. doubt we'll make it very many days into august without named systems roaming around.
HF 2250z31july


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Storm Cooper
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Re: going active anytime..
      #8580 - Thu Jul 31 2003 07:04 PM

As far as I am concerned # 8 has formed... a while ago. Latest models are interesting and the NHC really should be giving a number soon Note: I am speaking of 99L. 90L may get # 9

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Robert
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Re: going active anytime..
      #8581 - Thu Jul 31 2003 07:48 PM

how so storm cooper

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Storm Cooper
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Re: going active anytime..
      #8582 - Thu Jul 31 2003 07:59 PM

Yes as far as sat data it has been up and down, but I think it is a TD. I may be hard to detect but I think it has worked it's way pretty close to the surface. In any event if they don't class it tonight then Friday. As far as 90L... if it can make it a little more west w/ its CV I think it will stand a good chance of making it. Just what I see and my little own opinion

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Frank P
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Re: going active anytime..
      #8583 - Thu Jul 31 2003 08:33 PM

Latest model runs on our central atlantic system have again moved further south... early yesterday they all had the system making a sharp turn to the north before the islands.... later in the day, they move the system more to the west in the general heading of the most northern part of the islands... latest run 3 of the models (LBAR, A98E and BAMD) actually has the system even farther south, impacting the southern part of the islands.... BAMM has the system taking a more northerly component prior to the islands... then again, models have been stinking up the joint with the exception of Claudette.... so don't have much faith in any of em... just a point of reference..

GFDL has the system dissipating in 102 hours...

Hard to imagine anything coming from the Cape Verde area ever getting into the GOM without that big ridge of the Bermuda High anchored in place... which by the way has been transparent most of the summer... sure have seen a lot of ULLs swirling all over the place especially in the western atlantic


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caneman
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Re: going active anytime..
      #8584 - Thu Jul 31 2003 08:37 PM

Frank,
According the 8:00 discussion many of the ULL's are forecast to weaken and or dissipate.


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Frank P
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Re: going active anytime..
      #8585 - Thu Jul 31 2003 08:45 PM

Cane, that's interesting, because we've had a plethora of them all over the place, all summer.... otherwise we would probably had at least two or three more named storms.... seems like a couple of years ago we had a similar problem with the excessive number of ULLs as everything was getting shear to pieces... its only a matter of time for things to quite down in the upper levels.... maybe that will be in process soon, and if that's the case... we should see some major development down the road... possibly with the system in the central atlantic..... Oh, and here's the link to the model run plots...

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm



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caneman
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Re: going active anytime..
      #8586 - Thu Jul 31 2003 08:49 PM

From 8 disc. for those who care.
THE FLOW OVER THE WRN ATLC IS BEGINNING TO SORT ITSELF OUT AS
THE MYRIAD OF UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS/HIGHS/RIDGES HAVE MOSTLY
WEAKENED. THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 19N59W 30N68W WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE PRODUCING TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS UP TO
325 NM NE OF THE AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WWD TOWARDS THE
BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.


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Frank P
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another track meet?
      #8587 - Thu Jul 31 2003 08:57 PM

Yeah, another interesting component of this system is its speed... 25 mph.... seems like everything wants to race off to the west coming from that area of the ITCZ..... tropical waves on steroids.... I'd like for once to see that big fat bermuda high pressure ridge get anchored in place, and have the wave follow the southern edge at a normal speed of 10-15 mph at least some time during the summer.... that has yet to materialize... then again, I keep forgetting were not even in the heart of the season yet... still another two weeks away from the real threat of the CV storms.... maybe things will get more to normal in the coming month....

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caneman
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Re: another track meet?
      #8588 - Thu Jul 31 2003 09:02 PM

I posted this on another board I post at but if you look at Shortwave it sure looks like Shaharan dust to the NW of the system seems to be getting entrained which is bad news but it looks to ease up beyond 40 to 45. Thoughts?

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clyde w.
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Anyone See my Convection?
      #8589 - Thu Jul 31 2003 10:43 PM

Asked the wave...

Still, on the Shortwave IR, you can see a pretty well defined circulation at what looks like lower levels with the Central Atlantic wave. Still have to think this was in going to fire soon.

New wave coming off Africa doesn't look nearly as impressive, but we'll watch.

IN Steve's abscence, I'll mention his Indian Ocean wave, which is now making its way into Africa. This still looks like a player in about a week or so..Have to wait and see.


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Robert
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Re: Anyone See my Convection?
      #8590 - Fri Aug 01 2003 12:04 AM

No but i herd someone say it was on its back tonight.

Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is posiblle anywhere in the box between 20n , 62w and 25n , 68 w within the next 36 hours. All boating intrest and people in north and south carolina should moniter the progress of the tropical disturbance at 62 west south of 24n. well anyway apart from that i bet money its going to refire tonight and should that happen i think the LLCC should be established at that time. things look as if tonight is the nght for go but i dont feel comfertuble as evrything up into now has said tommorow night. As i look at and slowlly review the sat loops with the upper low backing south west the trough coming into 90 and the apperent swirl wich is moving west, and ridge building in behind it things just look right for this to start happenng tonight, and seems it may be doing that with convective popcorn starting to fire in band form up to an around the apparrent swirl.



Edited by Robert (Fri Aug 01 2003 12:06 AM)


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Mary K.
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Re: Storm south of Bahama
      #8591 - Fri Aug 01 2003 07:04 AM

This is starting to look Andrewish. This wave has not made it to TD status officially and yet it is in a place in August (as of today)that Andrew blew up in give or take a few degrees. Also it is not quite the middle of August but then Andrew was the only storm that year. So I am a little nervous but we will see if the shear and the other detractors will kick in.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Storm south of Bahama
      #8592 - Fri Aug 01 2003 07:52 AM

Note of interest... the GFS has a few players lined up around the 108hr following the possible/probable # 8

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islander
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Re: going active anytime..
      #8593 - Fri Aug 01 2003 09:43 AM

Hey...weather gurus out there...can anybody explain what's going on with 90L (an inminent TD#8 2 days ago)? NHC still defines it as well-organized and with good possibilities. But it looks "pathetic" in Sat pics, at least in terms of convection.

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Robert
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What The hell Happend
      #8594 - Fri Aug 01 2003 09:43 AM

dont drink and try to predict the weather . I lost all my money last night. Well the basin looks uninteresting this morning, and i dont think much will change today. are system in central atlantic continues to look less oraganized with less and less convection. the system off africa has no convection ne time soon. and then there is the purto rico wave wich just does not look intersting at all.

Edited by Robert (Fri Aug 01 2003 09:49 AM)


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Kevin
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90 L--perking up?
      #8595 - Fri Aug 01 2003 01:18 PM

From the latest visible storm floater loop I have viewed, I can see this system improving now. It seems to be moving along slower (11:30 AM TWO says west at 15-20 now) than it was yesterday. It just doesn't have that "I'm bookin' it look". Also, convection is (almost) explosively developing on the northern extension of the wave, from 14-15 north. On the southern side, there is a band that is beginning to connect the convection.

This one is coming together, again. It's incredible that some people on the boards are confusing thunderstorm development for a northwest motion. The wave and weak area of low pressure are going due west at this point.


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islander
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Re: 90 L--perking up?
      #8596 - Fri Aug 01 2003 01:25 PM

You're right, Kevin. I just noticed this in the 1645Z sat pic. The improvement has taken place in just a few hours. Let's see what NHC has to say in the 2:05 TWD...

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Kevin
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Re: 90 L--perking up?
      #8597 - Fri Aug 01 2003 01:53 PM

Well I noticed around 11 AM eastern (on visible storm floater loop) that there was some banding of the cumulous clouds just to the northwest of what is a weak low level circulation. I knew that cumulous development meant something...

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javlin24
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Re: 90 L--perking up?
      #8598 - Fri Aug 01 2003 01:54 PM

I have to agree she might not looh as good as she did 36 hrs ago but potential.If yo go to the naval site on the board and hit the wind field you see something.Is it real?The center of mass you seea twist in the windfield i think 25kts there.The outer bands have fields generating 30-35kts in them.Yea your right not a whole lot convection rightnow ,but something might be perking in the center on both IF and VIS.back to the treadmill ;lunchtime


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LoisCane
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go figure..about to write it off and bursts a bit
      #8599 - Fri Aug 01 2003 02:47 PM

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

thoughts?

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Happy Birthday HanKFranK
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almost there..
      #8600 - Fri Aug 01 2003 02:58 PM

90L has disorganized convection, though it looks like a tighter low is trying to close off near 12.5/40. it's lopsided looking and may have some entrained vortices, but there may be a dominant low developing with the system. on the other hand all that easterly shear is rushing by and keeping the convection west of the system... and having a wind surge line bent overhead isn't a very favorable feature. overall slowly becoming more organized, but at 5pm i'd imagine NHC will not classify.. still of questionable status.
synoptic environment would likely favor something off the east coast, but nothing is coming together just yet.
maybe a cutoff in the north atlantic to keep us company soon. not a certainty but worth watching.
basin is on hold.
HF 1900z01august


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lisagolias
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Re: almost there..
      #8601 - Fri Aug 01 2003 03:53 PM

if you look at the waves at the surface level they are also starting to twist.

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/


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57497479
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Re: almost there..
      #8602 - Fri Aug 01 2003 06:15 PM

Just got home and I can finally sit down and post. I have been watching the wave as often as I could today. This AM it looked pretty bad, had lost most of it's convection,but as the day progressed it started to look better with convection building and the over all appearance looked a little tighter with some convective banding trying to wrap. Now,the convection is starting to decrease once again. Looks like the northern part of the wave is being sheered and the front or most western part of the band also has a sheered apperance.

I believe it has tried to make a come beck today but the environment is over powering right now. If the conditions improve then I think that we will have a system that will deepen quickly.

Love your picture Kevin, GO #1TAMPA BAY BUCS!!


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All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
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Re: almost there..
      #8603 - Fri Aug 01 2003 07:53 PM

It's still there. I still believe it was there a day or so ago(TD)... I think the NHC wants to naturally avoid the class, downgrade, re-class thing. We have had this problem with a few of this seasons systems. It is coming and appears to be moving mostly west w/ a slight north bump, but w/ no real definable center it is hard to tell. I myself discount any sharp north turn (a possible jog) for about 72 hrs. We will see..may still never amount to anything but I doubt that will happen

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javlin24
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Re: go figure..about to write it off and bursts a bit
      #8604 - Fri Aug 01 2003 09:03 PM

The system N of the islands I take is what you were pointing out.Looks like some J.B ideas might be panning out.It's that this area has been a non producer thust far this season.TD6 then TD7 the area E of Florida this past week.History sometimes does speak I'll have to see it to believe it.I am just about that way with 90L to to some degree.I still like 90L though.Someone brought up the point about some of the sand across the Atlantic the other nite .I don't know if that is it or other lack moisture out there that seems to be part of the problem(along with her speed).The system appears to have good low down below ,looks tilted kinda.The system N of the islands I'll watch movement looks to me NW eventully then NNW along the coastline depending on how long the trough holds in place.The only place that has been a producer to some degree if these d--- ULL will move out is GOM.I watch the track of 90L she's not going to develop as fast as I previously thought.Right now thier is nothing I can see that will rip it apart.It might just hold on.

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Happy Birthday HanKFranK
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90L
      #8605 - Sat Aug 02 2003 12:30 AM

very little convection with 90L now.. do think based on IR2 and earlier visibles that the best central point for the disturbance is now near 13/44, at the trailing edge. convection is now limited to sheared bursts firing on what i suspect to be a tighter swirl in an irregular larger circulation. systems tend to improve in organization as they near the islands (if what they lack is convection), so i'm thinking that maybe somewhere around 14/50 tomorrow it will finally be sufficiently organized for advisories. there is just too much large scale turning in the area to bet on it not developing.
99L disturbed area near the bahamas still lacks any kind of circulation or sustained convection.
low tailing out the westerlies in the north central atlantic is already throwing convection, will have a few days to acquire tropical characteristics and maybe produce a fish spinner. no threat.
HF 0433z02august


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stormchazer
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Re: 90L
      #8606 - Sat Aug 02 2003 05:26 AM

It looks like the convection is bursting over what appears to be the LLC. It looks like a TD could be named by late afternoon if the growth continues.

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57497479
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Re: 90L
      #8607 - Sat Aug 02 2003 09:20 AM

The convection is starting to split and does not look as good as this AM. Seems to be trying to hold on,but sure is having problems.


How bout those BUCS...

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Jamie
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Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8608 - Sat Aug 02 2003 11:16 AM

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph. This system has become less organized today and any further development will be slow to occur.

An area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas and is moving slowly northwestward. This weather system is associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low pressure system. There are no signs of any significant development at this time.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.


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Happy Birthday HanKFranK
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Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8609 - Sat Aug 02 2003 11:43 AM

thats all up to interpretation. it has less convection, but you can see the center now as opposed to a broad trough axis. it is also encountering less easterly shear (with subsidence the problems this system has had so far). low is at 13/46 with the convective bursting within 50 miles nw of the center.
there is ample low level convergence with the wave near 30w. it will probably become a nuisance before long also.
disturbance off the east coast being replaced in a sense by the upper low aided convection east of the bahamas. yet another batch of convection entering the area, but right now no kind of circulation.
cold low cutting off over the north atlantic is knocking the heights down and slowing the fast easterly trade push in the deep tropics.. maybe making prospects better for the african waves.
as i've been suggesting for days, anytime now. really...
HF 1542z02august


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8610 - Sat Aug 02 2003 01:26 PM

I agree with you HF on "interpretation". It does not look that bad to me and I bet it will be discussed again with possibility.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8611 - Sat Aug 02 2003 04:03 PM

Now it will enter the 50w area and beyond where the SST's are much warmer and the enviroment is better for it to organize.Right now the system is trying to develop some convection however there is some dry intrusion to it but I dont see it dead as some people in other boards are saying.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Sat Aug 02 2003 04:03 PM)


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Steve H.
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Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8612 - Sat Aug 02 2003 04:15 PM

If it hasn't developed it can't be dead. But it seems to be reacting well to a reasonably good environment, and I expect we should see a TD by tomorrow sometime. The fact that it has delayed development has allowed it to stay westward blown by the easterlies, it increases the threat to land areas. Looks like it should impact the islands in the next couple of days. Keep a sharp eye on this one Luis. Cheers!!

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javlin24
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Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8613 - Sat Aug 02 2003 04:36 PM

Yea Cyclone this one is far from dead.The WV image starting to show some of the most moisture with this system yet.Everyone seems to want to junk this one because of the lack of a lot of convection .First things first as long as low spin persist development can occur.The system does look a little better than this morning for sure.If it goes N of Hispanola FL > Carolinas most likely,S a gulf system.The track now might just ease it pass the shear out front.I read one position that the enviroment was to improve in the next couple days.

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javlin24
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Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8614 - Sat Aug 02 2003 10:57 PM

90L looks all but dead as of 10pm cdt.What LLC was present is missing

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Steve h.
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Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8615 - Sat Aug 02 2003 11:13 PM

Not looking good right now for 90L. The next day will tell if she dries up or not. Cheers!!

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Bobbi
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Sayonara? Doesnt look good
      #8616 - Sun Aug 03 2003 12:22 AM

Looks worse and worse... drives home the point about the weakness of forecasting storms that far out and relying on them... its like they show potential.. but not reality.. just the potential..possibility

anyway... looks bad.. not much to say

except that everything looks a bit different tonight and that is probably good cause shows we should be headed for a change finally..

when ..dont know

but does look different on the sats.. all over

bobbi


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javlin24
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8617 - Sun Aug 03 2003 06:55 AM

Hey Steve look at the visible's this moring LLC 14.2N and 50.2W.Nothing to get real excited about but their is still a pulse(weak).I'm gonna be like that dog on the porch one eye open the other closed.A little dry air still out front;shear is weakening from the SW.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8618 - Sun Aug 03 2003 07:16 AM

Good eye (I mean yours). Once again it is trying. Wait and see how it does this am and only wonder what the NHC will have to say in the next TWO

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
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Re: Tropical Depression Wording dropped from TWO
      #8619 - Sun Aug 03 2003 08:11 AM

More convection there than last night, but has an elongated look now. Really feel that the shear has been more of a problem that what most people would like to admit to. Also, you mentioned dry air, the SAL has also been a contributing factor here in the lack of development. I don't know much about the SAL but here is a link and you can see for yourself that it is definatly out there. A picture says a thousand words so to speak. The system has really hung in there and has tried to develope but has certainly ran into some problems. I think that we will see a change in the Atlantic in the next couple of weeks. May still be a little early in August to expect a whole lot. I think we are all eager because we have had such and active year so far. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/wavetrkAsal.jpg

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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bobbi aka lois
Unregistered




if you look really carefully at the invest
      #8620 - Sun Aug 03 2003 08:11 AM

you can see a ... (so hard to type these words..will i? do i really want to..can i in good consience?) small circul(oops i typed it) ation... small... w/o much convection but there is one there unless it is like the face on mars..

but you can see it

of course we can pretend to know nothing about weather and scream SHARKS on the IR in E Carib..but know better

listen..just not done cooking yet i guess (nah you want to say lots of negative things about the SAL and no MJO and CIA FBI but... you are being kind and positive) so lets wait a little longer

and... if you look at that invest that is still there until monday i think... youll see it but would be funny if now after this mornings TWO where they definitely seem to be pulling the plug to see something develop

happy sunday... the football season is almost here


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
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Re: if you look really carefully at the invest
      #8621 - Sun Aug 03 2003 09:42 AM

Nice view of the swirl. Let's see what happens.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Sun Aug 03 2003 09:43 AM)


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