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Depression-Like System now bringing banding and training Heavy rains and Tstorms to parts of Tx. May drench the region for several days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 254 (Nate) , Major: 272 (Maria) Florida - Any: 282 (Irma) Major: 282 (Irma)
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: bigger picture
      #9081 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:02 PM

I hear ya HanKFranK. The Globals have started showing development off Africa into the Mid-Atlantic starting in 3-4 days. I wonder about the 1013mb Low that is just passing CV. Its void of convection but the ATL is finally looking wet and may I say....ripe.

True, a tropical system crossing FL and in GOM is priority, but it has had the look of recent systems who had high expections placed on them, but except for Claudette, have fizzled.

I had some talkback with a few post pining for the return to CV mega-storms. According to the Globals, it may come to fruition.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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TROPIC KING
Unregistered




Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9082 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:03 PM

RECON 27.2N 76.4W WINDS 120 AT 44 MPH

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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: bigger picture
      #9083 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:07 PM

Gee, HankFrank........why don't you tell us how you really feel???????...........

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caneman
Unregistered




Re: bigger picture
      #9084 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:14 PM

Heard the European Heat wave has broken so if you believe in the ole teleconnection thing than CV may be ready to pop.

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Ray
Unregistered




Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9085 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:21 PM

Heavy Down pour in Port St. Lucie, Florida. Lasted two minutes, very windy, next band about to make landfall.

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caneman
Unregistered




Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9086 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:24 PM

read on another board that repoting stating in Bahamas had a 60 mph wind gust.

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Alex
Unregistered




60 mph gust
      #9087 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:31 PM

If the 60 mph gust is indeed correct, than this thing may just bypass the TD stage. I am a little skeptical(not trying to bash anyone) but I've seen stranger things in the tropics.

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9088 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:33 PM

Is that a CDO developing over Abaco island?, or just the northern wrap-around thunderstorms?.

Also, i've seen a lot worse systems classified as TD's, this one looks like it could be teetering on TS status., is the NHC awaiting verification from the recon or what's the hold-up for classifying this thing?

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Brad In Mia mi
Unregistered




Re: 60 mph gust
      #9089 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:35 PM

Any idea why net-waves has the storm listed as Erika? I don't see any data from recon to justify that...

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Heh.
      #9090 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:35 PM

LOL k___g, HF et al. And what's up Rad? Good to see you.

Football and tropics. First the tropics.

Of interest is the new model initialization with 91L. Tropical Models

StormsFury posted that on S2K and it caught my attention. Apparently the former LLC is lunch for the ULL, and the convection has decided to coalesce (or however you spell it) around the 26th parallel. Long term implications potentially involve anyone south of Galveston come Saturday or Sunday. I still like the idea of a South Texas hit, but a Central Texas hit certainly isn't out of the question at all. As to intensity? I wouldn't bet against 91L making it to hurricane strength, but again, the key is the influence and movement of the ULL which stayed stronger than earlier predicted by model data.

Bastardi finally got on line and made a from the road post. "The question is how much and I suspect to at least a cat one, probably a cat2, and worst case, well its mid August a big ridge to the north and warm water..you do the math. Land fall is Saturday I think between 24 and 27 north which means yes I am aiming it more toward deep south Texas".

His previous columns seemed to be more indicating a Mexico hit though he hadn't come out and said it. I wasn't buying the pronounced SW turn the earlier modeling indicated (or what the A98E is at 00Z).

Cluster of storms just east of the islands kind of look another innocuous wave that could gain some energy once past 70W. We'll have to wait and see. It's kind of far south, so I don't know if it's just some convection for South America or if it becomes a player down the road.

And speaking of players, yeah, we died when Brooks refused to admit his shoulder injury was as severe as it was. He did fine in beating Tampa Bay, but that's all he had left. As for Louisiana vs Florida in 2002, here are the facts. I'm not counting minor programs like ULL, ULM, NW State, Grambling, Southern or NLU nor am I counting FIU, UCF, USF, FL A&M or other minor Division I (or 1A, II or III schools), and Tulane didn't play any FL schools this year, but it went down like this:

09/08/02 - 26-20 Saints over Tampa Bay (in Tampa)
12/01/02 - 23-20 Saints over Tampa Bay
10/12/02 - 31-7 LSU over Florida (at the Swamp)

So the way I see it, we went 3-0. Indeed, Florida football doesn't come close to what we play here in Louisiana .

Cheers anyway guys. You'll get us this year .

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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RBL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
Loc: Miami Fl
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9091 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:36 PM


Here are posting the the storm with name all ready "ERIKA"

http://www.net-waves.net/weather/tropics.php


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: bigger picture
      #9092 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:40 PM

HF... great post as always, I too am watching what is coming off of Africa in the next day or so, all the models pick it up as something significant.

And I'm still laughing at your comments about the wannabe system off South Florida.

You are so correct, this is not much to worry about, but it is in our own back yard and we will be experiencing the results first hand, so we tend to pay more attention to it than we might otherwise.

Bill


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TROPIC KING
Unregistered




Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9093 - Wed Aug 13 2003 09:49 PM



TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

Issued 2100z 13 Aug 2003
Valid for 24 hours
91L Invest

...A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE BAHAMAS...

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAHAMA ISLANDS OF LITTLE ABACO, GREAT ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA, BERRI, BIMINI, NEW PROVIDENCE, ELUTHERA, AND ANDROS CONTINUES, BUT IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS...

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN TITUSVILLE AND KEY LARGO, AND IS NOW EXTENDED SOUTH TO KEY WEST...

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF ANCLOTE KEY...

Satellite imagery indicates the tropical disturbance currently located over the Bahamas is becomming better organised. However, recent Recon Aircraft data shows the system still lacks a closed low-level circulation, and therefore can not be classified as a Tropical Cyclone yet. The aircraft did report winds of near Tropical Storm force near the centre of lowest pressure, especially in the northern and eastern quadrants. This disturbance may become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm at anytime. Regardless of whether a Tropical Cyclone does develop, heavy rains and thunderstorms, as well as squally winds, can be expected in the Watch area through the next 24 hours. Rough surf conditions are also likely along the coasts, leading to dangerous conditions on the shoreline. All interests in the Bahamas and Florida should continue to closely monitor the progress and development of this system over the next few hours as it continues to head to the west should Warnings be required at short notice.




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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: bigger picture
      #9094 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:05 PM

Ummm... what's that happening at 25N 78.4W? Is that our old friend the SW LLC? Seems to be picking up some convection, I first noticed it on radar, but I can see it on IR too. Could be what we've been watching the last couple of hours is a MLC. This is getting interesting, and even more interesting so close to home.

Bill


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9095 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:18 PM

" may have multiple circulations "... from the TWO. I believe that and keep looking a little more north. We will see

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
Re: bigger picture
      #9096 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:19 PM

Are the thoughts with Erika or a no name on the radar before land fall?

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9097 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:28 PM

Multiple circulations?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml?

..but what's new...lol


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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9098 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:28 PM

Looks like the latest radar image is showing an open circular rotation. It's Erika.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9099 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:36 PM

Just like multiple centers have been very common lately, is this going to be another system that intensifies right before landfall too?

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: bigger picture
      #9100 - Wed Aug 13 2003 10:39 PM

Most likely noname. I don't think there is enough to support naming it at 11:00, maybe a TD, but not a TS. There is a slight chance that it might make TS by 5:00AM, but slight. The next few hours will be key, particularly that spin down south that I pointed out.

We've got a squall line going through now, its raining and just heard thunder close by to the South.

Bill


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