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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: New center or MLC?
      #9143 - Thu Aug 14 2003 10:38 AM

that would be very interesting as none of model have it that far north.

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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Palm Bay Florida report
      #9144 - Thu Aug 14 2003 10:40 AM

Some what cloudy here in Central most Central Florida. The winds are occasionally breezy. No squalls have come through since I have been awake. Around 7:00 Am EDT. Some darker areas to south east.
Wondering about this thing crossing the state and turning to bite Tampa Bay area in the behind before going on its merry way.

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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: Palm Bay Florida report
      #9145 - Thu Aug 14 2003 10:50 AM

Bill, I believe you may be right. Looks like from this image that our LLC may be forming just to the South of me here in St. Petersburg. Looks like just West of Sarasota. Pretty windy hre and starting to rain. No Tornados-PLease.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
someone have a link please
      #9146 - Thu Aug 14 2003 10:57 AM

to any damage reports of any kind

dont have that link here..also.. anyone w/o power or is everything ok across palm beach

wondering what NHC will say at 11.. maybe designation at five at this rate

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Palm Bay Florida report
      #9147 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:04 AM

Today's the day you want to sign up for the Bastardi 30 day free trial at Accuweather. There's a ton of juicy information in his column. You can always cancel it on September 14th without paying anything or even October 14th and you get two months of tropical coverage for $19.95. Not a bad deal. He alludes to a lot of stuff today both in his column and his tropical update (e.g. potential for a long tracked storm, close in formation, future gulf and east coast hits and surprisingly, a wave south of the Greater Antilles which doesn't even show up on the sats yet - look at the area this weekend south of FL).

Anyway, he's still very bullish on 91L. One of his obvious points was with 91L traversing some 88 degree water, the only thing that will keep it in check is the forward speed. That makes a lot of sense and has all along. But he's calling it "textbook case" if the MLC and LLC get stacked - at least Claudette potential (which would give us our 3rd Gulf/US Landfall this year). His big key is does the LLC pull the MLC to it or vice versa, and therefore, potential implications for exactly where the storm would impact TX/MX. Arguing what he likes is modeling showing 50mph jet blowing SW out of the system.

My early gut after the mess clears Florida is a pulse up by late tonight which should allow for 36-40 hours of intensification. How far can it get? I'm still thinking easily Cat-1, and probably up to 100mph sustained if not more (depending on surrounding factors).

Big thing is to stay tuned if you're in South Texas!

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Palm Bay Florida report
      #9148 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:08 AM

a new central appears to have formed west of ft. meyers, looking at Tampa Bay radar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.ktbw.shtml

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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Saint Cloud
      #9149 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:09 AM

We're about to get a wrap around rain band. My rain gauge will be stacking-up by the looks of the radar. More to follow as the first band sweeps over.

Go Boilers

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Go Boilermakers


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Alex
Unregistered




low level center
      #9150 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:18 AM

It sure looks from radar and sat pictures that the low level center is SSW of Tampa/St Peterburg. However can anyone verify that this is a LLC. I feel frustrated. It looks so good on images and yet it is said to be "disorganized"

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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9151 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:23 AM

Here in Cocoa, we are having some windy weather. My guess 20+
Other than that light rain


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Alex
Unregistered




low level circ?
      #9152 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:45 AM

Is the circulation SSW of St. Petersburg at the surface. Its getting good convection wrap most of the way around it.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: low level center
      #9153 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:46 AM

and they say a picture is worth a thousand words

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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Saint Cloud
      #9154 - Thu Aug 14 2003 12:01 PM

Round 1

A few good gusts of wind. Heavy downpours with side-ways rain hitting the windows and .0.80" of rain. Lets not forget the numerous trash cans all over the street(full cans).

Rain Band 2 to follow.

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Go Boilermakers


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: low level center
      #9155 - Thu Aug 14 2003 12:10 PM

It looks good but looking at IR with Wind Direction over-lays, it shows west wind on the west coast of the peninsula which seems to say that she is still open and broad. When she hits the energy of the GOM...Look out!

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Jara

*************************************************************


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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
Re: low level center
      #9156 - Thu Aug 14 2003 12:21 PM

Nothing special here in St pete. Looks as if the rain is just starting to move in here, Should be interesting to watch it develop in the gulf .

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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: low level center
      #9157 - Thu Aug 14 2003 12:40 PM

Looking at the last zoomed in GOES Vis, you have to question what's happening at 26.81N 83.5W. That's a little slot in the twist from perhaps the old MLC. The LLC which was out southwest has got to have been creamed by the SW jet coming out the system. I'm not sure if there's going to be a pulse down this afternoon and a reformation somewhere between the two or what. But that's an interesting little spot to zoom in on and check out.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: low level center
      #9158 - Thu Aug 14 2003 01:08 PM

Just a plain old rain here in St.Pete, but my weather station measued a wind gust of 41 mph at 12:33 pm.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: low level center
      #9159 - Thu Aug 14 2003 01:24 PM

Disturbance update....... There is still no LLC in this wave trough, steve got it right about the old MLC that people are seeing W of Sarasota. That is not at the surface. Only reason the system hasnt developed has been its forward speed. The pressures remained fairly high also with the wave. For Florida the remainder of the day expect breezy conditions and moderate showers and isolated T-storms. Remember in warm core systems,,they generally dont have T-storms with them,, they need cold air aloft. Whole question on the wave has been will it complete a circulation, models have been right on with this and so far most of the season. With that being said we have as of this weekend opened the door the the Cape Verde Season. The first of the 4-5 systems is about to emerge off africa in the next day or so. This system will have the potential to become a Tropical storm down the road. After that the enviroment in the eastern atlantic should have moistend up for the 2nd wave to emerge off africa by Monday and become quickly during the week the next Hurricane and possibly a strong 1 as it heads towards the N Lessar Antillies the following weekend. As this happens the Low affects will continue as 3# and 4# will follow. In the meantime the current wave is still the 1 to watch for S texas as it will slow some so it had the chance to become a tropical storm. scottsvb 8 correct forcasts 1 wrong , LOL my forcasts are like football records for me,.

Edited by scottsvb (Thu Aug 14 2003 01:27 PM)


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: low level center
      #9160 - Thu Aug 14 2003 01:25 PM

yep, stiff, brisk winds here in St. Pete. Good amount of rain. Will check later at beaches to see if surf is up.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: low level center
      #9161 - Thu Aug 14 2003 02:21 PM

I assume people have seen this, but interesting 205 discussion about the MLC off the west coast, and the possibility of a new (3rd?) LLC forming there:

AT 1200 UTC A TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST MOVING W 15-20
KT FROM 23N81W TO 30N80W WITH A PAIR OF WEAK LOWS ALONG THE
TROUGH JUST NW OF MIAMI AND ANOTHER IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AT
1700 UTC A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION W OF SARASOTA IS NEAR
26N83W...CLEARLY SHOWN BY SATELLITE AND RADAR. THIS AREA IS THE
FOCUS OF NEW CONVECTION AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING IN THAT AREA. FOR THE MOMENT THE
SYSTEM IS JUST A TROUGH WITH WEAK LOWS ALONG THE AXIS BUT THERE
ARE HINTS THAT A MORE WELL-DEFINED CENTER COULD BE FORMING TO
THE N. UPPER WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
ESPECIALLY FARTHER TO THE N AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE MIATWOAT FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 81W-84W.


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Alex
Unregistered




low level circulation forming?
      #9162 - Thu Aug 14 2003 02:27 PM

If a low level circulation is forming, then this thing will soon be a depression. It has the look of one, but looks can be deceiving. However, I'd wager that a LLC will form and with it a depression.

In other news... a wave finally survived the emergence off the African coast. Maybe conditions there are getting more favorable


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