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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida
Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9190 - Thu Aug 14 2003 07:13 PM

And is strengthening, people along the Texas and Northern Mexico coastlines will need to watch.

More updates to come.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [jc]


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Alex
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9191 - Thu Aug 14 2003 08:17 PM

Pressure down another millabar to 1008

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9192 - Thu Aug 14 2003 08:19 PM

Hey All! Have a question... as of now I agree with the forecast & model tracks that MX/TX is the best bet w/ the ridge as is. Does anyone see anything right now that would make the N TX coast a better possiblity. I am still checking and I don't see a reason but someone else might

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Aug 14 2003 08:20 PM)


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9193 - Thu Aug 14 2003 08:24 PM

I'm with Steve on this one about the storms possible intensity.I always remember the way Erin came off FL.and started running it was fast to.Did the math siad we were under the gun 6-8hrs befoe the NHC said anything.That was the reason behind the question earlier how far does the high go.She made that right hand turn in the middle of the night into Pensacola.I know were in the high, are weather today no rain.Does it really end in Texas though?By the way if I'm not mistaken did not Erin hit at about 95mph.If that is right she did it in very little real estate.

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Jamie-on-dabyu
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Lafitte, LA
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9194 - Thu Aug 14 2003 08:28 PM

Hey everyone. I hate saying to much about these storms cause like I said I am still trying to learn. But it looks to me that Erika is moving wnw not due west. Could the ridge that is over the northern gulf be pulling away?

As always thanks,
Jamie


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9195 - Thu Aug 14 2003 08:43 PM

Jamie could be the curveture of the earth maybe if you are using the GHCC up top.You need one (I need one ) were you look at it from top straight down.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9196 - Thu Aug 14 2003 08:49 PM

this isn't a complete certainty, but based on ridge strength and model support across the board, i'd throw the dinero on the brownsville area. intensity probably low, any subtle changes to the track and speed should occur close to landfall and not play a great deal into what the end result of erika is. if we wake up tomorrow to a sub-1000mb system then that's good cause for worry, as fast moving storms under favorable conditions can sometimes intensify quite rapidly. anybody remember a certain storm that came straight west into south florida 11 yrs ago? it was moving quite fast, and went from t.s. to cat 5 in about 48hrs. so it's not expected, but not impossible either that erika becomes mean.
elsewhere..
bay of campeche system looked nice as it went inland earlier. sort of thing that would have developed if it wasn't inland instantly.
not so sure about what the carib wave bastardi is alluding to will be.. see some puffy, healthy type convection just east of the islands and won't can the idea, but it has to work its way up from nothing.
sw caribbean blowup today is looking decent at this point, but resembles yesterday's BOC interest.. probably more of an eastpac worry.
28/50.. same sort of system as the one that spawned erika, just not as energetic or in a great environment. yet, it looks better than yesterday.. not much of a development threat but not a definite non-player.
wave i couldn't discern yesterday leads the newly emerged one, around 33w with its greatest area of turning up around 23n. over cool waters but heading for warmer ones.. a testament to the strength of the monsoon that it's so high in latitude.
new wave around 20w.. some models smiling at the prodigious wave/low combo.. with its impressive convection that hasn't all collapsed once offshore. low in latitude as well, and the harrying fast trades don't look to run this prospect to death. so, as with last night's idea, maybe something to follow up erika is in the works.
well, with that huge post and all the areas of interest.. season must be about to really kick off. 2003 active season, here we go.
HF 0052z15august


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9197 - Thu Aug 14 2003 09:05 PM

It can, but I think this a storm has the afterburners on and will turn very little. The Bermuda High is building west with such strength that Erika is caught up in the momentum. There is very little weakness now or down the road with the steering behind Erika, but as we know with the tropics, that can change.

If she were to deepen suddenly or if we had a low in the southeast to weaken the building High, then the dynamics of the steering currents could change but that is a pretty big if. I narrowly missed Hugo when I moved to Charleston in 90, but if I remember a low to the south and high pressure to the north and east forced the same kind of momentum on Hugo and she was into Charleston and all the up to North Carolina in about 24 hours.

I think we have similar force at work here. South Texas or Mex look out.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Alan
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9198 - Thu Aug 14 2003 09:06 PM

Can this bouy at 26.01 N 85.91 W be right.

Here's the readings from 7 p.m.:
Conditions at 42003 as of
(7:00 pm CDT on 08/14/2003)
0000 GMT on 08/15/2003: Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.94 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 82.2 F


Here's the web site for bouys http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Bouy reading
      #9199 - Thu Aug 14 2003 10:03 PM

yes its on the south side of the system its switched wsw now strongest winds are to the north of the center.

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9200 - Thu Aug 14 2003 10:34 PM

jamie sorry it took so long here is the site www.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-if4-loop.html

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9201 - Thu Aug 14 2003 10:41 PM

iit does not work need to learn how to paste they call it

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9202 - Thu Aug 14 2003 10:43 PM

There is at this time one model hinting to this but as far as sat goes it looks to me it is moving.. if not due W a little WSW.

Hey TONI, my mug is now nationwide in such hotspots as 7-11, Circle-K, EZ Serve, K-Mart, Wal-Mart and various other locations

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9203 - Thu Aug 14 2003 10:48 PM

hey Coop how do get these web sites to work

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9204 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:07 PM

It depends on the one you are trying. The best ones are linked on the CFHC News page. The Penn State TC Genesis site has some problems and they are working on it. This is the best to me because you can loop the global models here. The model I am in question of is trantech.... again you can get to it from the main page here, Gary Gray's Millennium......

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9205 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:10 PM

Well... according to the latest NHC discussion, it seems you may have been correct on the WNW mvt.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9206 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:17 PM

Yea Coop i mean that if I have aweb site I want to post is not there a way to post it.Steve posted this site the other nite and it is agood view(goes if 4).

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9207 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:18 PM

Interesting dynamics at play tonight. Pressures in the northern Gulf are pretty high considering a developing system is nearby. It's like 30.16 at Dauphin Island. And that's high for the NGC on any summer day. Same thing along the LA coast. Offshore winds aren't anything to write home about. From the IR, it looks like the center is maybe south of Okaloosa Co., FL already and shows up best on WV. Erika is bookin' across the Gulf. We should be able to tell by around 11 or 12 tomorrow what she's ultimately going to have in store for the West Gulf. There are good arguments as to why she will stay relatively weak and good ones why she could get really strong. I've been leaning toward strong all along, but I wouldn't lay the house on it (maybe a watch). I've got an interesting psyche with this storm. Usually if something is this close, I'm all the way pumped (y'all know how it is). But I didn't even think of preparing this time except for the 6 pack of Abita Wheat . Here's a toast to HF's call that it's on now . Mmmm Beer /homer

I'm keeping half an eye on the West Caribbean. There's ridging building in behind the ULL with some embedded energy underneath and a wave or two making their way toward it's area of influence - EPAC? Cuba? We'll see.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Jamie-on-dabyu
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Lafitte, LA
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9208 - Thu Aug 14 2003 11:47 PM

Hey Cooper, would that mean the ridge over the northern gulf may be weekening? Or could it be just a jog. Thanks evreyone for ansering all my silly questions.

Jamie


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Shan
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Re: Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Gulf
      #9209 - Fri Aug 15 2003 01:09 AM

I'm in no way an expert and I have alot to learn, but wouldn't the fwd speed of Erika keep her from strengthening very much? She's really moving out there. I know with the right conditions anything can happen but I would think fwd speed has at least some bearing on how strong she could get.

Shan

--------------------
Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL


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