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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Things of interest this afternoon
      #9334 - Mon Aug 18 2003 01:44 PM

Thought I saw a spin on the visible, but now appears to still be an open wave

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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: reflection of a time long ago
      #9335 - Mon Aug 18 2003 04:08 PM

Great account Frank. Memory can be the great equalizer reminding those who have not seen, that the danger is real. My sister lives in Gulfport and I have on a couple occasion stood on the beach with the monument marking Camille's storm surge mark. It amazes me everytime.

I moved to Charleston SC a year and a half after Hugo. My fav bar downtown, about 20 blocks off Charleston Harbor has a plaque about 5 feet up one wall marking Hugo's flood line. It is amazing but still no match for that high mark on the gulf at Gulfport, MS.

If there are any of you wishcasters out there, take a lesson from Frank's story.

--------------------
Jara

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: reflection of a time long ago
      #9336 - Mon Aug 18 2003 04:57 PM

Yeah Frank, Congrats! I'll be doing the same thing soon. Got alot going on this week so I'll be checking here to see what is up! Later All

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Alex
Unregistered




central atlantic wave
      #9337 - Mon Aug 18 2003 05:04 PM

I would give the central Atlantic wave a pretty good chance of becoming something in the next few days. It has slowly been getting better organized over the past day or so, and now the GOES floater is on it. I also see clouds streaming westward toward the low, but I may be mistaken

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islander
Unregistered




Re: reflection of a time long ago
      #9338 - Mon Aug 18 2003 05:05 PM

Frank's story is truly amazing...

We have had our own share of disasters with hurricanes down in Puerto Rico. Eight hurricanes during the past century can seem minimal, considering the island is in the middle of the so called hurricane alley. But the statistics of human and material loses are there. The most destructive in all respects has been San Felipe back in 1928. Hundreds of lives and around 80 million dollars in loses...IN 1928! My father's stories would make anyone cry, believe me. Closer in time we had Hugo (1989) and Georges (1998) as the most destructive ones. Hugo affected just the NE part of the island but destruction took its toll as this generation had not seen a hurricane until then. Then Georges crossed the island E to W with a lot of damages but, thanks God, few human casualties.

And some say that "such is life in the Tropics"...


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Jara/ Coop
      #9339 - Mon Aug 18 2003 05:12 PM

thanks.... Jara, I think that most of us who post on this board probably wouldn't get to upset if a weak Cat 1 (but no stronger) came towards us as its kinda exciting and fun in a way, as long as no one gets hurt and experiences too much damage... to witness the awesome power of a hurricane is really a remarkable event...... but a Cat 4-5 is fatal.... people are going to die, and many will lose everything they own... I hope I never see another one, or no one else does either... I will not stay on the beach for a Cat 4 or 5 storm... 1-3 OK, no 4-5 for me.... when people come over my house, and I show them where the storm surge came, they don't believe me... sometimes I don't believe it really came up that high myself, but I still have the water lines in the interior of my walls to prove it...

Coop, you getting married? or your child getting married? I though you were a young snapper ..

Wave at around 48 W.. still hanging in there... very persistent, which is one of the keys to development... looks like it's trying to develop some circulation mostly in the mid levels looking at the vis loops, but also in multiple areas... nothing closed off yet

We might be another day or two before we get any development, time will tell.


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Things of interest this afternoon
      #9340 - Mon Aug 18 2003 06:24 PM

Yea the wave in the BOC looks to be getting some shear from the SW.Definitely no deep low here probably or maybe a weak broad low if that.The wave at 48 looking better looks to be about 13-14N see if it stays low.Need to look at some more loops though .

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Jara/ Coop
      #9341 - Mon Aug 18 2003 06:46 PM

I don't know about young snapper..... I have been married for 8 yrs now, my stepson is about to do it... I'm not 100% sure of this move

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Things of interest this afternoon
      #9342 - Mon Aug 18 2003 06:47 PM

Can someone of more experience tell me is that two ULL's in the gulf now.The larger one S of the panhandle of FL.and the other one very small S of NO LA.Explains alot of the shear and thunderstorm activity in part.Frank you speakith the truth about the cat. of the storm one might desire.The air gets so thick around town when one is coming in you laugh at the situation to break the tension.Cat 1 or Cat 2 I'm okay.The house I'm in is 44yrs old I've seen all here minus Camille went to KAFB.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Things of interest this afternoon
      #9343 - Mon Aug 18 2003 07:47 PM

I hadn't really looked at 'em. There are remants of a boundary kind of in our area. I did see the ULL off FL, but didn't really consider it anything. Joe B said the SE Gulf would be an area to watch for pattern born stuff a few days down the line (remnants of trof lifting out, ULL backing w or wsw, tropical wave through the islands last night entering the picture and ridging expected to be in the area...). A lot of times this type of scenario sniffs out moisture influxes if not necessarily cyclones. Such was the case with the western Gulf wave (90L remnants) as it flared up a couple days before Erika's landfall.

Anyway, I was just going to post that the SOI (doesn't report from Friday until Monday) has again gone negative. It's been positive over the last few weeks moreso than it has in months. There was a brief reversal (around the time the last Typhoon was getting its act together), so we'll have to see if this one will also be brief or not. Positive SOI can, in our summer pattern, corelate (sp?) somewhat to trof amplification in North America (15-18 days lag). Sometimes it goes positive in response to storms that have moved NW of Tahiti and Darwin. Sometimes it goes negative when it senses formation nearby. But negative SOI would more strongly correlate to a zonal or flatter flow across America. We'll have to see when the next trof amplifies next week how long it will last and whether it will be signaled by the index.

SOI Index


Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: thanks all
      #9344 - Mon Aug 18 2003 08:01 PM

After going through Donna at 4 years old, several others since, and then Andrew, I don't want to see anything over a Cat 1 again.

I have plenty of memories about Andrew during and after, but one that stands out, and I was reminded of it when you mentioned the pine trees. In Andrew almost all of the remaining original pineland in southern Miami-Dade County was destroyed.Thankfully some of it is growing back with some help. I remember driving my Mom out to the Redland to check on some friends of hers that she had not heard from, they were OK. They lived in what used to be the middle of about 20 acres of pineland. Almost all the trees were snapped off about 10 ft off the ground. In many cases the top of the tree was not near the remaining 10ft of trunk. We left there and went to check on another family friend. We turned the corner on a main road, and as far as we could see the concrete power poles were snapped off 10ft off the ground.

Bill


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: thanks all
      #9345 - Mon Aug 18 2003 09:05 PM

Yeah Bill, tree effect of Andrew was very similar to that of Camille.... two tremendous storms.... I guess it's good to reflect back on some of the really devistating effects of the major storms over the years, especially during our little quite time right now... I read some interesting stories from those who have experienced some powerful storms....

We all get rather excited when a major develops and moving in our direction, and rightfully so, because most of us know the consequences involved... I guess when I was younger I was a quientessential wishcaster.... age, experience, responsibilities, home ownership, but mostly family have changed that dramatically...

I just can't imagine what a Cat 5 would do to New Orleans, or Miami, or Mobile, or any major populated area of the Gulf or Atlantic.... but it's gonna happen, one day.... and its going to be horrific...



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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
FWIW
      #9346 - Mon Aug 18 2003 09:22 PM

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Looks like Fabian to be is consolidating a little. Looks like it's got the potential to be a fairly impressive storm this far out.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Shan
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Re: thanks all
      #9347 - Mon Aug 18 2003 09:22 PM

Ole Miss huh? That's where my almost 13 year old has had his heart set on going since he was really small. He wants to be an attorney though!

Camille visited the month before I was born so I have no memories of her. We're not too far from Pascagoula (just across the state line). My grandparents have a net shop here with the bayou running right behind the shop. After Camille, they had almost 6ft. of water and mud left in the shop. Hearing of the damage she cause here, I can only imagine the havoc she caused all along the coast.
Shan

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Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Things of interest this afternoon
      #9348 - Mon Aug 18 2003 09:26 PM

So Steve if the SOI is about to go negative then as a trend you are saying that in about two weeks the Atlantic goes quiet.It was just positive out there last week and we were active.Kinda like the ripple in the pond what happens there eventually comes here in some form or other.If you look Steve it is about 150 miles S NO nothing major for sure a small twist in the upper atmospere only see it on WV loop GHCC.

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Bobbi
Unregistered




Wish List for tomorrow: I want an invest on the wave
      #9349 - Mon Aug 18 2003 09:31 PM

That would make me happy.

something to that wave.. don't think anyone will be laughing too hard about that name in the near future


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Wish List for tomorrow: I want an invest on the wave
      #9350 - Mon Aug 18 2003 09:37 PM

Yeah Steve, I agree... I really like this wave for several reasons... it was mentioned earlier on the board that this one had a normal speed... something none of the earlier systems had as they were all hauling butt... its been consistent, at a good latitude... moving generally westward, at a decent speed, with some good convection... and its late August... WREL has the latest AVN model run of the system going just south of Puerto RIco, now that should get Cycloneye's attention for sure...

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: FWIW
      #9351 - Mon Aug 18 2003 09:39 PM

Your right Steve if this continues for a while .The way these storms have been this year they all want to die at night.If it looks like this tomorrow afternoon Bobbi you might well see an invest.It always seemed to me in the past that well developed storms at the core like to breath at night.

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Alex
Unregistered




Central atlantic wave
      #9352 - Mon Aug 18 2003 09:42 PM

I would agree that our little central atlantic system should get an invest. It continues to slowly look better, and It has a fair shot at affecting the lesser antilles.



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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: thanks all
      #9353 - Mon Aug 18 2003 09:44 PM

I am about like you, I arrived on the 21st. I have a picture somewhere but anyway.... my parents had some cottages on the beach in Gulf Shores, Al..... after the way was cleared all the cottages were gutted and filled with about 6ft of sand! That sand taller than my dad was about all he ever said about it but I know there was more ...and worse.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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