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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Clearing up my comments
      #9836 - Sat Aug 23 2003 01:59 AM

I understand what you are saying, but I think there is also a significant public safety concern in keeping systems classified when, as here, no data (including satellite imagery and quickscat) indicated a low-level circulation still existed. If the NHC keeps such systems classified, the public will not be able to rely on the NHC calling a system classified as actually being a classified system, and there's a risk the public will not trust the NHC. Also, systems that are open waves tend to dissipate more often than TD's/storms/hurricanes, and therefore the public is likely to see many more classified systems (that are actually waves) dissipate, and begin to pay less attention when classified systems exist because people will assume they will dissipate.

I think the real solution here is better public education, i.e., getting the word out to people that: (1) even non-classified systems bear watching; and (2) the NHC means what it says: although this has degenerated, there is a significant possibility it will regenerate. (And we need education of newscasters, not just weather newscasters and the viewing public. The Miami anchors were HORRIBLE tonight in relaying the continued possibilities to the public; the statements I heard were along the lines of, "The depression is gone, so we no longer have to worry.")

I think NHC has to be 100% honest in their assessments of whether a classified system exists, or else the body losing scientific credibility. Science has to stick to facts (or the facts as best we can judge them from available data), or else it loses credibility and its status as science. The NHC said the right thing about regeneration in the 5 pm discussion; now why don't anchors read that? That may be something the NHC needs to address.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9837 - Sat Aug 23 2003 02:02 AM

Lisa: The numbering system goes clockwise. 0 and 360 are due north; 90 is east; 180 is south; 270 is west.

So they're looking for anything from 181 to 359, although only one reading of exactly 181 or 359 may be too close to 180 or 360 to conclude there really is a westward component.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9838 - Sat Aug 23 2003 02:05 AM

actually, I wonder about that-- would one or several readings of 181 or 359 be sufficient to conclude a westward component existed? Technically one would, but I suspect they'd look for something a little farther off of due north or due south.

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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9839 - Sat Aug 23 2003 02:09 AM

Thank you for the information. I'll see what happens in AM.

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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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Jim M
Unregistered




Re: Clearing up my comments
      #9840 - Sat Aug 23 2003 02:15 AM

I absolutely agree with your point on public education. However you pointed out one of the major problems, the way it gets reported by local stations. That is a whole other can of worms. I am not so much concerned with initially classifying a system. Especially when it is far from land. My concern about downgrading this system is exactly for one of the reasons you state: the public will be less likely to pay attention to classified systems if they start up and dissipate. That is exactly the concern I have and why I think they should be slower to downgrade if there is a significant chance of regeneration in the short term. Obviously, if this system had just torn itself apart, I would have no concern. I just don't like the idea that a system officially dissapates at 5:00 PM and can be back at 5:00 AM . I think we have the same concern about crying wolf. However, until we can better educate the public and get the local TV guys to not say stupid things on the air, I think it is better to maintain an advisory on a system a little longer rather then discontinuing advisories. I think we may just have differnt ideas on handling it. I am cool with that, though. I like hearing other opinions.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Clearing up my comments
      #9841 - Sat Aug 23 2003 03:28 AM

I like hearing other opinions too.

Plane leaving system; last report, and no west wind, so it's still an open wave.


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: It's Stationary
      #9842 - Sat Aug 23 2003 07:32 AM

I get up and after 6 hrs. still no movement.I will be surprised if this system makes it to the 71>72W today.I'll have to do a HF on ya"it's to close to land for development".I think that will suffice in this situationand don't look for development until it gets beyond the 75W line.Between it's interaction with the mountains and land itself at 75W it can breath(if no shear present by then).

Goes VIS odd little feature moving E>W south of CDO probably nothing oh yea have to Zoom.All you sleepy heads need to get your butt out of bed.

Edited by javlin (Sat Aug 23 2003 08:19 AM)


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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
Re: Clearing up my comments
      #9843 - Sat Aug 23 2003 07:34 AM

On subject of NHC's possible adjustment of their storm nomenclature, would gently suggest that the issue may lie more with the ambiguities of this year's storms than with recent twitches in NHC policies/patterns. The only politically recoverable position for NHC is to play it absolutely straight on preset criteria based in best science, with sensitivity to public safety built into the watch/warning system, not the storm descripters. Then, when the prediction turns brown and the public goes scalp-hunting because a tropical low turns into a hurricane without passing thru stages etc., NHC can point to the irreducible murkiness of weather science and not to some arbitrary interpretation of what's best for the public. About the TV guys (a unisex word), caveat emptor - watch them at your risk and try to stick with one that doesn't use Chicken Little as their role model.

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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Clearing up my comments
      #9844 - Sat Aug 23 2003 08:59 AM

Here are some pieces of information I have gathered as an amateur analyst that are not by any means set in concrete. First, storms will do whatever the conditions set up in advance have them do. Secondly, the data is only as good as the intruments are reliable. Thirdly, we are in an age of instant information reporting. That means that minor changes in the atmosphere are reported and have changed again before the report is made official. Fourth, We are in an political climate that has caused informaton to be increasingly scrutinized by terrorist control operations, insurance companies looking for ways to conserve payouts, and Tourism industries trying to preserve incomes because money is tight, people are traveling less and spending less when they do travel. So when we are playing with the hurricane or storm data, we have to remember that the only real knowledge that we have is that if a storm does form and does come in our direction we need to have our hurricane preparations ready. We will not necessarily have the luxury of all this fine scientific information available if the situation is critical, because it will possibly be withheld due to security concerns. Look at the recent fall out from the East Coast power failure. The fault finding started before the cause was known. We are all victims of the stock market speculators which by the way invest in futures(crops) insurance companies(cars, mortgages, businesses), medical( injury, heart disease, pregnancies) all of these are factors that increase in intensity and demand on public services when a hurricane or severe storm are around. I am arthritic and my pain meds are the first thing I think about when the barometer starts to drop. What do you think the pharmaceuticals are thinking when the weather gets testy? Please consider all these things in your frustration with media hype or lack of hype when a storm is around. Thank you. I will now get off my soap box and disappear into the crowd.

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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
It's pitiful
      #9845 - Sat Aug 23 2003 09:10 AM

Boy number 9 is in disarray this morning...can you say really open wave... looking at the latest vis loop hard to find a center at any level... hints of trying to maybe reform at 16.9 and 73.9, but need some more loops to confirm.. some convection starting to refire in and around that general area... evidence of shear out to the west but not enough to hinder 9 from redeveloping... agree with Jav, interaction with land not helping... unless it can recenter back out in the caribbean.... history of this system has always been rather ragged in the morning, today is certainly no different... just have to wait and see what, if anything, 9 will do...

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: It's pitiful
      #9846 - Sat Aug 23 2003 09:16 AM

I think you are dead on trying to reform @ 17/74. As far as the slowing down... I know the AVN has been reflecting that but not too sure about its flat west track... we will see.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Clearing up my comments
      #9847 - Sat Aug 23 2003 09:22 AM

Hey Mary, I can appreciate what you are saying. I think we may be seeing the Rotational Syndrome Diease Process creep back in that Ed was speaking of a few days ago. With tensions building due to increased anticipation, and this WAVE/TD just sitting there and in no hurry to go anywhere anytime soon, it may be time of a good ole dose of castor oil, what doya think?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: It's pitiful
      #9848 - Sat Aug 23 2003 09:41 AM

It is pitiful, but as you said, history with this system is, it looks like doo-doo (technical term) in the morning, and tightens as the day rolls on. In this case, it looks like either the movement is subtle or we are getting a reforming of the mid-level to low level circulation to the south of the convection.

There is still a low to mid-level southwesterly flow across the central Caribbean that may be pushing the convection off a bit to the north and east. this is really eveident on the WV.

Water Vapor

Couple that with the Hispanola landmass and you have some difficult times ahead.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
morning look
      #9849 - Sat Aug 23 2003 10:04 AM

old t.d. 9 is sort of splitting as an entity. the low level feature, which is that hairpin turning south of haiti, is moving along to the west.. while the convective siphon at outflow levels is lingering back over the eastern dominican republic. now that the two have parted ways, the chances of a center reforming are down some.. either one could generate a new one. the piece south of haiti is being sheared badly and will have trouble, while the part to the east is very close to the d.r. if something redeveloped on the north coast of hispaniola it would be an interesting turn, but right now that doesn't carry any water. bottom line is this may be the 4th t.d. this year to fail.
eastpac side has ignacio, per NRL monterrey's early acquisition of the upgrade.. and should signify continued atlantic activity. it looks to scurry up the baja.
the east atlantic has three interesting features this morning. one is the wave near 50w.. has a low analyzed on it around 12n with a good bit of convection, and another piece of convection on it behind the axis near 17n. the southern feature is probably more conducive. back near the cape verdes another nice looking wave/low is rolling westward. while their predecessors have been rather underwhelming, there's still good potential for this part of the basin to spawn something.
HF 1405z23august


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: It's pitiful
      #9850 - Sat Aug 23 2003 10:20 AM

Jamaica has a 29.88" reading this AM. About the lowest I could find. http://www.srh.weather.gov/sju/caribm.html

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: It's pitiful
      #9851 - Sat Aug 23 2003 10:51 AM

Seems that the area of disturbed weather is south of Haiti now. But it did stay over water. This may be the only area where re-development can occur. But it is moving WNW IMO. Let's see this evening. Cheers!!

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: It's pitiful
      #9852 - Sat Aug 23 2003 10:57 AM

Frank is right - its certainly open this morning. Little convective swirls all over the place from Jamaica to the D.R. - indeed a broad area of lower pressure. Overall structure remains rather well defined and I'd watch the area around 20.5N 71W for a possible reformation - that would certainly be a novel way to lessen the impact of Haiti/D.R. on the system.

Convective bloom associated with wave at 17N 45W is worth watching.

Great discussion (early) this morning on TDs, NHC and the Media. My two cents: NHC's primary role is public safety, not scientific accuracy, but since they are subject to criticism from either camp, they attempt to blend the two goals in their product outputs - not always an easy thing to do (been there - still trying to do that - even here. No, make that especially here.) Think about it. This site, on a smaller scale, mirrors what the NHC has to deal with. If you post something that turned out not to be quite scientifically accurate, you'll hear about it, myself included (right Coop? . If you post something that disregards some aspect of public safety you'll also hear about it - but thats okay; its what a specialized interest board is for - I think that its called 'education' and it doesn't matter who is doing the educating or who is being educated. Wouldn't have it any other way.

Regarding the Media (I've gotta be careful here - I actually have some good friends out there and would rather keep that aspect intact), they also deal with different, and sometimes opposing pressures and some of you talked about these last night. From my viewpoint, if I know that a storm system, no matter what intensity it is at, is stationary and is not going to threaten my area of interest for at least five days, I don't see much wrong with telling my viewers/listeners that its going to be a great weekend and not to worry about the tropical system. After all, its Friday evening and most of the public is looking forward to two days off, so you throw in the usual caveats about 'we'll keep an eye on it and let you know should conditions change' and 'take some time this weekend to review your personal hurricane preparedness plans. Free copies of our own hurricane awareness brochure, developed by our superb meteorological staff here at WXYZ, are available at your nearest Home Improvement store.' The Weathercaster will usually get out the right message for the situation at hand - the Anchor, well thats another story.
Cheers,
ED


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Next wave
      #9853 - Sat Aug 23 2003 11:12 AM

Has anyone looked at the wave at 11n 48w. It looks to have some swirl to. It seems to be pulling back together, it was ragged the last couple of days. And it may have some west wind!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.phtml?station=41101

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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

Edited by Lisa NC (Sat Aug 23 2003 11:18 AM)


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Miami Chris
Unregistered




Re: Next recon flight underway
      #9854 - Sat Aug 23 2003 11:49 AM

I have a theory as to why all of these sytems have been falling apart. Check out the visible image of the wave near 44W, 17N. You can clearly see that a rope is attached to the MLC. If you follow the rope you will see that it is attached to a rock in the Cape Verde Islands. These ropes are intended to slow the mid and upper level circulations; allowing the surface circulation to outrun the associated convective mass. You end up with an unstacked sytem. Everyone knows that an unstacked sytem cannot stand and therefore fails.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Next wave
      #9855 - Sat Aug 23 2003 11:54 AM

Yea, looks like something else we will have to keep an eye on. Got to run family picnic today, hopefully the rain will hold off for a while, can't forget the Bucs football game tonight. Will check back in tonight.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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